Mick Abel

Abel may have been passed by Andrew Painter as the most exciting pitching prospect in the Phillies' organization, but he got to spend 2023 as the team's most exciting healthy pitching prospect after Painter suffered an elbow injury in March which wound up requiring Tommy John surgery. In some circumstances, that status would have led Abel to a potentially premature MLB debut, but the Phillies didn't wind up needing to reach into their minor-league system for additional depth, and Abel's numbers in 22 outings for Double-A Reading meant he wasn't forcing his way in. Abel's 27.5% strikeout rate was strong and was nearly an exact match for his 27.6% mark from 2022, but his already worrisome 10.6% walk rate jumped all the way to 13.5%. The result was a rather ordinary 4.14 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Abel won't turn 23 until August, so he has plenty of time to get his 6-foot-5 frame under control and learn to find the zone on a more regular basis. If he does, his stuff will make him a frontline arm, but each season in which he continues to walk too many batters increases the likelihood that he tops out as an unreliable back-end starter or a reliever.

The Phillies present us with a great example of why it's fine to draft prep righties in first-year player drafts, it's just not wise to draft them with high picks. Abel was a trendy early-round target in 2021 and Andrew Painter was an affordable mid-round option in 2022, and now Painter's dynasty value greatly outpaces that of Abel. Standing 6-foot-5 and armed with a power arsenal, Abel has consistently missed bats (K% over 27% at every stop) while also consistently walking too many batters (BB% over 10% at every stop). His 1.33 WHIP in 108.1 innings at High-A and Double-A is a good illustration of the risk he still carries, even though he is healthy and in the upper levels. Additionally, Abel is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9 GB% at High-A, 26.3 GB% at Double-A) who will someday call Citizens Bank Park home, which is not a great recipe. He won't turn 22 until August, and a significant step forward with his control could lead to a breakout year. If he doesn't take that step forward, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski could use him to upgrade the big-league club at the trade deadline.

The only real knock on Abel is that he comes from the riskiest subset of draft prospects: prep righties. As such, the expectation should be that he won't work out, but he could be an ace if he does, which is why the Phillies selected him with the No. 15 overall pick in last year's draft. He sat at 95-99 mph with his fastball during the fall instructional league, and at 6-foot-5, 190 pounds, he could be throwing even harder (without increasing his effort) in a year or two. Abel has the best command among last year's crop of high school arms -- he projects for plus command down the road. His plus mid-80s slider is his best offspeed pitch, and he is currently working on improving his changeup and curveball, both of which have promise. On paper, Abel looks like a future No. 1 or No. 2 starter, but as we are often reminded, high school right-handers can often break our hearts in pro ball.