Miles Mikolas

Mikolas ended 2019 with a sore flexor tendon which lingered into the spring. An MRI revealed no ligament damage, so he ramped up slowly and would not have been ready for the original Opening Day. After continuing to throw bullpens over the summer and into camp, Mikolas was expected to return for the delayed start to the season. However, the injury recurred, requiring season-ending surgery. Mikolas' calling card is control as his 18.4 K% and 3.9 BB% since returning from overseas suggests. The 32-year old relies on a high groundball rate to minimize homers, though it didn't help in 2019. Mikolas could be relied upon for close to six innings, a rarity in today's game. This is all now a big question after surgery, plus such a long time since he last took the hill in an MLB game. If healthy, Mikolas should be in the Cardinals' rotation, but without a high strikeout rate, his margin for error is thin.

Not much changed with Mikolas from his first season back stateside in 2018 to 2019, except the home runs. His K% and BB% were near carbon copies of his 2018 marks and his swinging-strike rate was identical at 9.6%. It wasn't a sizable dip, but Mikolas' groundball rate dropped to 47.4%, and the balls that got up did more damage thanks in no small part to the reduced drag on the big-league baseball. His win total was cut in half and his fantasy value took a good hit as a result of these factors. Now 31, Mikolas has a pretty clear fantasy ceiling given his limited strikeout ability, and while excellent command and control have kept his floor high, that floor has been jeopardized by a sore flexor tendon in spring training. If he gets healthy and the ball is deadened some this year, Mikolas could settle into a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA with a WHIP in the teens and double-digit wins on a competitive team.

Mikolas' 2018 campaign was better than even the most optimistic league-equivalency estimators could have predicted after he made the jump from Japan. He was supposed to be pretty good, but he certainly wasn't expected to be this good, finishing with a 2.83 ERA, 18 wins (tied for most in the NL) and a sixth-place finish in the NL Cy Young race. He looks to be a legitimately good starter, with his primary skill being his impeccable control, which allows him to offset a modest 18.1% strikeout rate with an excellent 3.6% walk rate, the best among qualified starters. Mikolas was also good at limiting the long ball, with a near-50% groundball rate leading to a 0.72 HR/9. None of his peripherals suggest that major regression is coming, though the variability of wins means he's unlikely to repeat such a high number in that category, taking away some of his fantasy value. Still, Mikolas is for real and should be treated as a high-floor option this draft season.

Mikolas returns stateside in 2018, having signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals after three highly successful seasons in Japan. But will that success translate? The right-hander flopped in his first pass through the majors from 2012-14, posting a 5.32 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 91.1 innings between San Diego and Texas. He found his way with the Yomiuri Giants, with his K/9 ticking up from 6.6 to 8.2 to 9.0. Mikolas was also much sharper with his control, issuing a total of 69 free passes in 424.2 innings. The curveball passes the eye test, but for Mikolas it's more about getting that pitch over for strikes than it is the swing and miss. Maintaining the confidence that he gained in his slider and cutter will be crucial to his success in a starting role with St. Louis, and to his chances of exceeding 7.0 K/9, a number he failed to reach in any of his first three big-league seasons.

The Rangers couldn’t have envisioned using Mikolas for 10 starts in 2014, but that is just how severely injuries ripped through their rotation. He closed in Triple-A in 2013 and that was his fourth straight year as a full-time reliever. He wasn’t as bad as his 6.44 ERA would suggest, but three shellackings of seven, nine, and 10 earned runs destroyed him. There was a measure of bad luck involved (namely an impossibly-low 58% LOB rate), but he deserves plenty of the blame for the poor performance. He allowed way too much contact with a 15 percent strikeout rate and was probably fortunate to yield just a .299 BABIP. There were some things to like here, but you are going to have a hard time finding any real fantasy value in him unless your league’s player pool includes the Yomiuri Giants. The rights to Mikolas were sold to the Japanese Central League team back in November.

Mikolas acted as Triple-A Tucson's closer in 2013 but was nothing special, posting 26 saves with a 3.25 ERA and 5.9 K/9 in 61 innings (54 outings). As he climbed the minor league ranks, his strikeout rate tailed off, likely spurring the Padres to cut ties with the 25-year-old right-hander. Following his arrival in the Texas organization, he'll provide depth to the bullpen and likely take up residence at Triple-A Tucson after spring training.

Mikolas finally made his MLB debut in 2012 as he pitched 32.1 innings out of the bullpen with results (3.62 ERA) that really don't reflect how poorly he performed (4.52 xFIP). In the minors his control became less and less sharp as he moved up in levels. His strikeout rate stayed fairly consistent throughout these stops, but has never been anything special. Overall, he's got fringe command and should not be expected to factor into late-game situations in 2013 for the Padres.