Nate Pearson

After a flexor strain sidelined him in 2020, a core-muscle injury cost Pearson significant time in 2021, with the hard-throwing righty first experiencing the issue last spring before landing on the injured list again in June. Because of how the injury disrupted his buildup program, Pearson worked almost exclusively as a reliever, coming out of Toronto's bullpen in 11 of his 12 appearances while submitting a 4.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 15 innings. He recently underwent surgery to address the sports hernia, but Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said he should be fine for spring training without any disruptions. Toronto plans to have Pearson stretch back out for a starting role, but he'll still be forced to compete for a spot in the club's Opening Day rotation. He'll have a better shot if he refines his command (6.8 BB/9 for his career) and avoids the injuries that have plagued him the past two seasons.

Pearson has long stood out as an injury risk due to his age, profession (pitcher) and superfluous fastball velocity, and indeed, he suffered a flexor strain in his elbow after four starts in the majors. Fortunately, he did return, making one regular-season relief appearance before striking out five of six batters in his lone postseason appearance. He still carries a high risk of re-injury, but we can at least expect him to open the year in the MLB rotation. If there were no health concerns, he would be a nice buy-low option after a miserable statistical debut. His fastball velocity and wipeout slider are major strengths, while his changeup, curveball and command/control were major weaknesses against MLB hitters. Even the best pitching prospects can take a couple years to figure it out in the majors, so health/durability, not performance, remains the biggest long-term concern with Toronto's 6-foot-6 righty.

The crucial part of Pearson's season was an eight-start run to close the year split between Double-A and Triple-A, during which he had a 2.14 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 47:14 K:BB in 46.1 IP. Prior to this, he had been facing overmatched competition (six starts at High-A) or not working as a true starter -- he averaged 3.1 innings per outing in his first 11 starts at Double-A. In short, he passed the final exam and is one of the game's best pitching prospects. Pearson can touch triple digits with his fastball and has a plus slider, but his changeup needs some work. Injuries limited the 6-foot-6, 245-pound righty to just 42 pro innings prior to 2019, so crossing the 100-inning mark was a significant achievement. Keeping his weight in check will be important, and Pearson's velocity makes him a prime Tommy John surgery candidate, but all arrows are pointing up for now. He should spend most of 2020 in the MLB rotation.

Sometimes the mysterious carries more value in dynasty leagues than established commodities. For example, Pearson has thrown just 42 innings including the Arizona Fall League, yet looks the part of a frontline horse (6-foot-6, 245 pounds) and touched 104 mph in a one-inning outing with dozens of scouts watching at the 2018 Fall Stars game. The 28th overall pick in 2017, Pearson was seen as a lottery ticket, as he had not faced quality competition in junior college but had touched triple digits with his fastball. The selection looked brilliant when he dominated in short-season ball, but he missed the first month of 2018 with an oblique injury and missed the rest of the season after exiting his first start when a comebacker broke his ulna. Pearson's slider and changeup should be at least average offerings but his eventual command is unknown. His upside and flaws should come into focus if he stays healthy in his age-22 season.

The Blue Jays nabbed Pearson with the 28th overall pick in the 2017 draft, but if the draft were held again this offseason, he would go in the top 15. He was seen as a lottery ticket. Scouts liked his stuff, but coming out of a Central Florida junior college, he had not faced any high-end competition. Pearson threw one inning in the Gulf Coast League and was quickly promoted to the Northwest League where he displayed an elite fastball that can touch 100 mph and a potentially plus changeup. Never going more than four innings, he was able to carve up short-season hitters with ease on the strength of his fastball and changeup. He didn't give up a run over his first seven appearances and fanned 10 over four innings in his penultimate start of the year. The next step will be gaining more consistency with his slider -- his clear third pitch. If that comes along, he has the size (6-foot-6, 245 pounds) and potentially above-average command to anchor a big-league rotation.