Nolan Jones

It was another miserable year for the Rockies in 2023 with an NL-worst 59 wins, but Jones excelled after being acquired from the Guardians during the offseason. He missed Colorado's Opening Day roster but was called up for his season debut in late May, and he hit the ground running with a .942 OPS in his first 28 games. Jones put up similar numbers the rest of the way and finished his rookie campaign with a .297/.389/.542 slash line, 20 homers, 20 steals, 62 RBI and 60 runs in 106 contests. Encouragingly, the Coors Field effect didn't appear to have much of an impact on him, as he posted a .928 OPS at home compared to a .935 OPS on the road. However, his .404 BABIP isn't sustainable, which combined with a 29.7 percent strikeout rate is a strong indication of overperformance (that is also backed up by an xBA of .247 and xSLG of .492. Even taking that into account, it was an excellent season for Jones, who will open 2024 as an everyday starter in the Rockies outfield and should provide strong fantasy production even if he's unable to fully replicate last season's numbers.

The Guardians sent Jones to the Rockies this offseason for 21-year-old second base prospect Juan Brito. Considering Brito is already on the 40-man roster and has not played above Single-A, this was a very light return, but Cleveland didn't have room for Jones at the big-league level and Brito's hit-over-power, up-the-middle skill set fits the organization's priorities. Obviously playing in Colorado is preferable to playing in Cleveland, so from a fantasy standpoint, this was an upgrade. Jones didn't play poorly for a 24-year-old returning to Triple-A (122 wRC+) and getting his first taste of the majors (93 wRC+), but he is a corner outfielder who has not shown an ability to hit for the necessary game power to pull off that profile. The 12.5 BB% and 25.8 K% he showed at Triple-A would be excellent marks if it came with 25-plus homer power, but Jones managed 11 home runs in 83 games last season. His 14.5 Barrel% and 49.1 Hard% in the majors suggest he could still get to enough power to occupy the strong side of a platoon. The Rockies will probably give significant playing time to Kris Bryant, Randal Grichuk and Charlie Blackmon to start the season, and when injuries or poor performance strike, Jones could be the next man up.

The most noteworthy thing that happened to Jones in 2020 was getting added to the 40-man roster as Rule 5 draft protection. The 22-year-old third baseman spent the summer at the alternate training site and also played in the fall instructional league. He has long excelled at working the count and using the whole field on offense while doing just enough to get by on defense. His patience at the plate leads to plenty of strikeouts as well, and he is unequivocally more valuable in OBP and points leagues than in roto leagues that use AVG. He has plus power to all fields, so he should eventually settle into a spot in the middle third of Cleveland's lineup. Jones has recently gotten work at first base and in the outfield so that he can bring some defensive versatility to the table. He should open the year at Triple-A and could debut this summer if he keeps his strikeout rate in check.

Jones has been at least 47% better than the average hitter in every full-season league he has played in while being young for each level. His 14.7 BB% was the fourth-best mark in the Eastern League, but it was the worst rate of Jones' career. Just based on where he hits the ball (evenly distributed to all fields) and how he hits it (a lot of linedrives and flyballs), his hit tool would rate as one of the best in the minors. However, strikeouts linger as the lone blemish. He has a career 26.7 K% and had a 29.9 K% at Double-A. Jones struggled to make contact in 15 games in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .200 with four HR and a 31:8 K:BB. Thumb surgery cut his AFL run short, but he is expected to be ready for spring training. Jones should become Cleveland's everyday third baseman in 2021, and will be either a big four-cat or big three-cat contributor, depending on whether it's an OBP or AVG league.

While no longer underrated in OBP dynasty leagues (walk rates between 16.2% and 20% at every pro stop), Jones is still under-appreciated among many who play in standard formats. He boasts an exquisite all-fields approach -- the last time more than 39% of his hits went to one third of the field was in rookie ball -- and still shows off his plus power in games. His 147 wRC+ ranked third among Midwest League hitters (min. 300 PA) and his 162 wRC+ ranked second among Carolina League hitters (min. 100 PA). At 6-foot-4 and roughly 195 pounds, he is a below-average runner, but has worked diligently on his defense at third base and should be able to stick at the position. Plenty of strikeouts (25.2 K%) come with all his walks and power production, but he doesn't swing and miss at an unmanageable clip. The Indians may send him to Double-A ahead of his 21st birthday in May, setting up a likely 2020 MLB debut.

The second youngest hitter in the New York-Penn League last year, Jones led the league in wRC+ (171) while ranking second in walk rate (16.2 percent) and sixth in BB/K (0.72). He has pedigree ($2.25 million bonus in 2016), great size (6-4, 185 pounds) and is a good athlete, although he is not much of a runner. He could handle right field or first base if he needs to move off third base down the road, but he is improving with the glove and won’t be moved anytime soon. Jones can work the count and hit to all fields -- an area he has really improved since entering pro ball. In 2016, 45.9 percent of his hits went to the pull side, but last year he cut that mark to 37.7 percent. He shows excellent plate coverage, and is more than willing to take what pitchers give him. With such an impressive foundation, it’s only a matter of time before his plus raw power starts regularly showing up in games.

Jones was expected to come off the board in the first round, but he fell to the Indians at No. 55. However, his $2.25 million bonus ranked 25th in the 2016 class, so he still got paid like a first rounder. At 6-foot-4, 185 pounds, he is still filling out, but should physically resemble a typical middle-of-the-order third baseman in time. A prep product from the Northeast (Pennsylvania) who won't turn 19 until May, it is not surprising that Jones struggled somewhat to adjust to pro pitching, but he still demonstrated a keen eye (17.2 percent walk rate) in the Arizona League. His initial lack of power production does not reflect his long-term projection, as many evaluators think his swing and physique will lead to plus power with an average or better hit tool at maturity. If his contact skills improve and he retains his awareness of the strike zone, all the traits are there for Jones to develop into a special hitter in four or five years.