Nomar Mazara

Mazara was stuck in the bottom third of Chicago's order in 41 of the 42 contests that he appeared in during a shortened 2020 season. He failed to show much more than a glimpse of power, leaving the yard just once in 149 plate appearances. To make matters worse, his batting average slipped to .228, the worst mark of his five-year big-league career, and he struck out at an alarming rate (29.5 K%). One bright spot was his approach against lefties, hitting .333 with six RBI, but the sample size is far too small (26 PA) to believe he'll maintain that level of play against southpaws over the course of a normal schedule. Despite coming off a dismal season, Mazara has clubbed 19 or more homers in four of the last five years, so he could add some middle-of-the-road production at the dish in fantasy leagues if he can latch on with a rebuilding club.

After four years of hoping Mazara would take the next step and develop into a true middle-of-the order masher whose bat would make up for his defensive woes, the Rangers had seen enough. They sent him to the White Sox for a fringe prospect this winter. When he connects, he can hit tape-measure shots, but Mazara has never hit more than 20 homers in a season. He remains someone who mostly feasts off right-handed pitching (55 wRC+ against LHP in 2019), so a strict platoon is always a possibility. Mazara dealt with both oblique and thumb issues over the final six weeks and hit just four home runs after the trade deadline due to the time missed and trying to play through injury in September. This trade may have been a humbling experience for the former top prospect, who won't turn 25 until April, but with 2,189 MLB plate appearances under his belt, the paint may be dry on his development at the dish.

Mazara's 2018 looks a lot like 2017 with 20 fewer games, but note he was slashing .272/.332/.450 at the break. Mazara began the second half on the DL with a sprained thumb. When he returned, he posted just a .221/.277/.397 line the rest of the way. While it's likely he was affected by the injury, Mazara also incurred a second-half swoon in each of his first two seasons. The other noteworthy aspect of his campaign is perceived improvement versus LHP as his .697 OPS facing southpaws was by far his career best. However, he fanned more and walked less versus LHP. The gain was strictly from a huge HR/FB leap, from a career 5% to 17.1%. This was higher than his 14.0% mark facing RHP, so expect some pullback. It's nice to have 1,720 PA under your belt before turning 24, but at some point, Mazara needs to demonstrate sustainable skills growth if we are to continue dreaming on another level, especially since he doesn't run.

Following an electric 2016 debut that showcased his titanic power, Mazara enjoyed possibly the quietest 100-RBI season of 2017. While his home-run pace slowed over a full season, his Statcast measurements averaged 414 feet per big fly, tied for second with Kendrys Morales behind only Giancarlo Stanton among players with 400-plus batted-ball events. "Big Chill" also showed more opposite-field punch (.358/.351/.560 in 111 plate appearances), which could eventually create more fence-clearing connections. Still, to take the next step, he'll have to overcome three obstacles: (1) a groundball rate that remained high at 46.5 percent (2) two seasons of chasing nearly one-third of pitches he sees outside the zone, per Fangraphs, and (3) left-handed pitching. Mazara, who turns 23 in April, recorded just 101 plate appearances at Triple-A before coming to the majors. He should continue to bat in the heart of the order, and best of all, he is still not being priced up as a fantasy building block.

Mazara endured familiar rookie drawbacks (late-season slump and battles with strikeouts included) but impressed at age 21. His plus-plus power and steady contact skills survived his call-up. Mazara's second season, however, will test his value. Can he sustain or add pop if he keeps knocking almost half his batted balls into the ground? Will Mazara reclaim his once excellent batting eye in the majors? Will he earn enough chances to correct issues against left-handed pitching? Bank the most on him confirming the first question. Thirteen of his 20 home runs came on the road, and he's shown excellent power for his youth. As for the other questions, have patience with the blue-chipper in dynasty leagues, where he owns tantalizing upside (40 homers? Four-category stud?). Those owning him for only 2017, however, must consider those immediate pitfalls, including uncertainty with stolen bases and a possibly crowded outfield. Don't depend on a major step forward, but he'll deliver when priced as a complementary power-first bat, especially if he settles somewhere in the middle of Texas' order.

Players who are 20 years old with incredibly high ceilings typically don’t also have a high floor to match. It is also rare to see a 20-year-old with plus-plus raw power get on base at a .409 clip while striking out less than 12 percent of the time, as Mazara did in his first 20 games at Triple-A. In fact, nothing about Mazara is normal. He defies all of the trends that prospect hounds are so accustomed to seeing throughout the developmental process of sluggers destined to hit in the middle of a big league lineup. People unfamiliar with Mazara’s profile may glance at the 14 home runs he hit in 131 games between Double-A and Triple-A and question whether he belongs near the top of prospect rankings, but that analysis misses the boat. To do what he is doing where he is doing it is almost unheard of for a player his age (he won’t turn 21 until April 26). Mazara should spend most of 2016 with the Rangers, and he has the polish to be special from day one.

Last season, Mazara finally started to live up to the potential the Rangers were betting on when they gave him a record-breaking $4.95 million signing bonus out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2012. The 6-foot-4 right fielder posted a .264/.358/.470 slash line with 19 home runs in 461 plate appearances at Low-A Hickory before getting the call up to Double-A Frisco as a 19-year-old. When he signed out of the Dominican, his calling card was his plus-plus power, and to put up his 2014 numbers as one of the youngest players in those respective leagues should leave dynasty owners in a euphoric state heading into 2015. Mazara is a top-50 prospect by RotoWire’s rankings, and one only needs two hands to count the minor leaguers who can match his offensive ceiling. He should start 2015 back in Double-A, and if he picks up where he left off, a September callup could be in the cards.

Mazara made his full-season debut as an 18-year-old in 2013, slashing .236/.310/.382 at Low-A Hickory and showing some modest power given his age. Scouts think the bat will eventually come around, giving Texas a middle-of-the-order bat down the road, and given Mazara's age there's plenty of reason to be patient. He will likely begin 2014 with a promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach, as the Rangers have little reason to rush him through their system.