Pavin Smith

Pavin Smith

26-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Arizona Diamondbacks
2023 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for Pavin Smith in 2023. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a $5.01 million contract with the Diamondbacks in June of 2017.
Not in Saturday's lineup
1BArizona Diamondbacks
October 1, 2022
Smith isn't starting Saturday against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
Smith started the last five games and went 5-for-18 with two doubles, three runs, two RBI, two walks and two strikeouts. Stone Garrett will serve as the designated hitter and leadoff Saturday.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
23
3
10
10
4
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
6
3
3
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+23%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+20%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+28%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+38%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .611 221 24 2 23 0 .243 .299 .312
Since 2020vs Right .749 644 75 19 63 3 .256 .328 .421
2022vs Left .580 66 5 1 4 0 .226 .258 .323
2022vs Right .695 211 19 8 29 1 .219 .313 .383
2021vs Left .607 149 18 1 19 0 .239 .309 .299
2021vs Right .778 396 50 10 30 1 .277 .336 .442
2020vs Left 1.000 6 1 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500
2020vs Right .724 37 6 1 4 1 .233 .324 .400
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+12%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+19%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+2%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .754 417 50 11 50 2 .264 .336 .418
Since 2020Away .674 449 49 10 36 1 .242 .305 .369
2022Home .665 132 11 4 19 0 .224 .303 .362
2022Away .669 145 13 5 14 1 .217 .297 .372
2021Home .798 262 36 6 29 1 .287 .351 .447
2021Away .671 283 32 5 20 0 .249 .307 .364
2020Home .737 23 3 1 2 1 .222 .348 .389
2020Away .754 21 4 0 2 0 .316 .333 .421
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Stat Review
How does Pavin Smith compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.42
 
BB Rate
10.1%
 
K Rate
24.2%
 
BABIP
.262
 
ISO
.147
 
AVG
.220
 
OBP
.300
 
SLG
.367
 
OPS
.667
 
wOBA
.296
 
Exit Velocity
87.9 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
26.0%
 
Barrels/PA
6.5%
 
Expected BA
.216
 
Expected SLG
.379
 
Sprint Speed
23.2 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
43.1%
 
Line Drive %
13.8%
 
Fly Ball %
43.1%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Pavin Smith
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157 days ago
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192 days ago
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DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Breakdown
197 days ago
Dan Marcus recommends checking out a Mariners bat stack at home against Oakland on Tuesday.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Now 589 plate appearances into his big-league career, Smith has proven that his contact-heavy approach in the minors translates to the highest level. He's struck out at a 19.4% clip and managed a respectable .329 on-base percentage in that span, solid marks given the context of the modern game. Unfortunately, his inability to hit for power has also carried over from his time in the minors. He's hit groundballs at a 47 percent clip (8.9 degree launch angle), which has limited him to only 12 home runs and a .136 ISO. That's caused some difficulty in determining exactly how Smith fits into the Diamondbacks' - or any club's - future plans. Smith doesn't hit for enough power to provide value at first base, his natural position. Smith has also picked up at-bats at all three outfield positions, but his fit defensively is questionable, particularly given the lack of offensive upside he's shown to this point.
Plate discipline is one of the most transferable skills between the minors and majors, so it's no surprise that Smith posted a better-than-average walk rate (11.4%) and strikeout rate (18.2%) during his first stint as a big-leaguer last season. The sample size (44 at-bats) is admittedly small, but given Smith's consistently elite control of the zone during his collegiate and professional career, there is little doubt about the 2017 first-round pick's ability to get on base. What has prevented Smith from gaining more prospect buzz, however, is his questionable power. Over 1,074 minor-league at-bats, he has hit only 23 balls out of the park (46.7 AB/HR), and he collected just one homer in 37 at-bats with the Diamondbacks last season. The poor power stroke is especially concerning given Smith's primary position (first base), and it could block his path to regular major-league at-bats should it fail to blossom.
Smith's batting profile has been remarkably consistent year to year in his three professional seasons. His strikeout rate has ranged from 10.8% to 12.9% while his walk rate has ranged from 11.3% to 12.1%. He had 12 home runs in 507 plate appearances at Double-A after totaling 11 in 504 plate appearances at High-A in 2018. These plate skills are promising, but those power numbers are a problem, though the 2017 seventh-overall pick did at least show more gap power last year with 29 doubles and six triples, lifting his ISO nearly 40 points. If Smith is to become a major-league regular at first base, he will need more of those doubles and triples to clear the fences. We saw a massive spike in power across baseball in 2019 and many players who were not expected to hit for power did. Keep an eye out to see if more power shows up at Triple-A. It is the piece of the puzzle that will either make or break Smith.
The 2017 seventh overall pick hit a mediocre .255/.343/.392 in 120 games for High-A Visalia, smacking 11 homers after failing to hit a single one in his first 51 professional games for Low-A Hillsboro the season prior. Smith demonstrated excellent control of the zone, walking 11.3% of the time while striking out in just 12.9% of his plate appearances. Players who have these kind of advanced plate skills sometimes tap into more power as they age, or they benefit from the bouncier big-league baseball. If the power never comes it will be hard for Smith to clear the very high offensive bar required for a major-league first baseman.
A college first baseman who received the eighth-highest bonus ($5.01 million) in the 2017 draft, Smith proved after signing that he is a unique offensive talent. He had more walks (27) than strikeouts (24) while finishing third in the Northwest League in average (.318) and OBP (.401) and fourth in wRC+ (136), yet he failed to hit a home run. Of the qualified hitters in that league, he was one of only seven players who failed to homer, which is concerning given his age (21) and position. It is hard to find recent precedent for a college first baseman failing to hit for power in his pro debut and going on to be a quality big-league first baseman. Smith's backers will point to his excellent hit tool -- perhaps the best in the entire 2017 draft -- and say that he will add power as he gets more comfortable against pro pitching. Unless he is going at a nice discount in dynasty drafts, it is probably wise to let someone else bet on the power showing up.
More Fantasy News
Makes third straight start
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 28, 2022
Smith started at designated hitter and went 1-for-3 with a walk in Tuesday's 10-2 loss to Houston.
ANALYSIS
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Ignites rally
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 25, 2022
Smith started at designated hitter and went 2-for-4 with a run scored in Saturday's 5-2 win over the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Singles as pinch hitter
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 24, 2022
Smith went 1-for-2 in Friday's 6-5 loss to the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Activated and promoted
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 23, 2022
Smith (wrist) was activated off the 60-day injured list Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Goes on 60-day IL
1BArizona Diamondbacks
Wrist
August 21, 2022
Triple-A Reno transferred Smith (wrist) from the 7-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Aug. 11.
ANALYSIS
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