Rhys Hoskins

Last year was a mixed bag for Hoskins. He hit 30 homers, the second highest total of his career, but his 122 wRC+ was his second lowest in six MLB seasons. One reason is Hoskins stayed healthy for the first time since 2019. However, Hoskins didn't take full advantage with a career low fly ball rate. Sure, the personal high .292 BABIP was nice, but Hoskins' job is to hit the ball in the air, hopefully over the fence. His strikeout rate was a career high 25.1% with a 10.7% walk rate, just a tick better than last season's career low. While last season could have been better, Hoskins was still a solid fantasy asset with a skill set likely to provide similar results for a few years. The disclaimer for many players is not to pay for last season's stats. Doing so for Hoskins could earn a profit since he left some homers on the table. That said, his playoff exploits could help recover some of his lost allure.

For the second straight year, Hoskins' season ended prematurely due to an injury which required surgery, as he was shut down in late August with an abdominal issue after undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of 2020. When healthy, Hoskins produced mixed but mostly positive results. Typically possessing elite plate discipline but not quite elite power, Hoskins shifted slightly in 2021, producing a career-worst 10.6 BB% and a 24.4 K% which missed a career high by 0.1%. That downturn in plate discipline came with an uptick in power, as a career high 17.0% barrel rate helped him homer 27 times in 107 games while producing a .283 ISO, seventh-best among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. Hoskins' flyball-heavy profile means his .247 average in 2021 is about as good as you can expect, but he should be a good power bat with extra value in OBP leagues as long as he can remain on the field.

Hoskins missed the final two weeks of the season with an elbow injury and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in early October. Recovery from the procedure is expected to take four to six months, meaning he has a chance to be ready by Opening Day but is far from guaranteed to avoid the injured list. Given how he was hitting, his absence may have been the reason the Phillies missed out on the playoffs by a single game. After hitting a forgettable .226/.364/.454 in 2019, Hoskins improved across the board in 2020, posting a .245/.384/.503 line with 10 homers in 41 games. His walk rate remained quite high at 15.7%, while his 23.2 K% was quite acceptable for a power hitter. Most importantly, he made far better contact than in the previous season, with his barrel rate shooting up from 9.7% to 14.8%. He's still not a top-tier first baseman, but he rebounded nicely following a down year.

Hoskins didn't have to play left field or carry the Phillies' offense on his own, but those changes failed to have the desired effect in his age-26 season. His offensive performance took a step back almost everywhere, as his slash line dropped from .246/.354/.496 to .226/.364/.454 and his homer total fell from 34 to 29. Outside of a 16.5% walk rate (fifth-best among qualified hitters), those numbers aren't really good enough for a first baseman on a contending team, especially considering the league-wide power explosion, though there doesn't appear to be an immediate threat to Hoskins' playing time. Statcast doesn't offer much hope for a regression-related bounceback, suggesting he overachieved his xBA (.216) and xSLG (.405). A better performance in 2020 can't be ruled out given Hoskins' past success and hitter-friendly home park, but he's less interesting than he was last offseason.

Hoskins couldn't maintain the incredible pace that saw him hit 18 homers in 50 games as a rookie, but that doesn't mean his second season should be considered a disappointment. He slashed .246/.354/.496 with 34 homers, 89 runs and 96 RBI, all while playing out of position in left field. Those numbers made him one of the most valuable fantasy first basemen, though with just 17 games played at the position, he's now only outfield-eligible in traditional formats. He will quickly regain 1B-eligibility after Carlos Santana was dealt this offseason. The Phillies already added Jean Segura and could add another big bat in free agency, so Hoskins' counting stats could increase, even beyond any personal improvements he makes heading into his age-26 season. His batting average may remain modest due to a flyball-heavy approach (51% flyball rate last season) but a strong 13.2% walk rate erases that weakness in OBP and points leagues.

Hoskins burst onto the scene for the Phillies in August, swatting 18 homers and driving in 48 runs during a 50-game stretch that is unmatched by other rookies throughout MLB history. A fifth-round pick out of Sacramento State in 2014, Hoskins rolled through the minor leagues with relatively limited attention until his 38-homer breakout at Double-A in 2016. The encore in 2017 included 29 homers in 475 appearances with Triple-A Lehigh Valley before his promotion, and perhaps most impressively for a young power bat is Hoskins' ability to control the strike zone. He improved his strikeout rate at Triple-A Valley (15.8 percent) and kept that number in check after the promotion to Philadelphia (21.7 percent) during the final two months. With his impressive debut Hoskin secured an everyday job, and he'll be counted on as the team's primary run-producer in the heart of the order. Don't be surprised if he's treated as a top-50 player this spring.

Hoskins had a monster year at Double-A Reading where he hit .281/.377/.566 with 38 home runs in 498 at-bats. He took advantage of a hitter-friendly park in Reading where he slashed .292/.396/.636 with 25 of his 38 home runs. Hoskins does have a solid eye at the plate and a simple but effective swing, which should allow him continued success as he advances. He hit .282 with a .920 OPS against righties and .277 with a 1.024 OPS versus lefties, but there are questions regarding whether he will hit enough when he gets to the majors and has to face better offspeed stuff. His floor is likely a platoon bat at first base, and making it as an average or better everyday first baseman is not out of the question. His hit tool is certainly a better bet to play against big league pitching than Reading teammate Dylan Cozens, who led the minors with 40 home runs. A strong start to the season at Triple-A could have Hoskins pushing for a look in the majors by midseason.

Hoskins, a fifth-round pick in 2014 out of Cal State Sacramento, popped up on prospect radars last season after a hot start at Low-A Lakewood. He posted nearly identical numbers at both Lakewood and High-A Clearwater last season. His BABIP was a bit high in 2015 so he might not be a .300 hitter, but he does have a good eye at the plate with solid pop, and he makes contact at an 80 percent clip. Those skills should allow him to succeed when he is moved up to Double-A, and if he continues to hit then he could arrive in the majors in 2017 as the Phillies' replacement for Ryan Howard at first base.