Willi Castro

25-Year-Old Second Baseman2B

Free Agent

2022 Stats

AVG

.241

RBI

2023 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Once an emerging middle infield option for Detroit, Castro's path to regular playing time now seems to be in the outfield. He started 80 games in the outfield for the Tigers in 2022, while also seeing 16 games apiece at second base and shortstop. That was a drastic change from 2021, when Castro primarily played in the infield and only saw 10 outfield appearances. Offensively, Castro has shown flashes here and there, though his .651 OPS last year leaves room for growth. He has at least been able to reduce his strikeouts the past few seasons. Castro struck out just under 31 percent of the time as a rookie in 2019. He lowered that to a career-best 20.9 percent in 2022. If Castro can continue to make more regular contact, he could make a bit of a fantasy impact, possibly with double figures in stolen bases for the first time in his career. As someone who will be entering his age-26 season, Castro also has the potential for more, especially if he's able to hold onto regular playing time, either in the outfield or infield. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

Overall

Bats B

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'1"

Weight 170

DOB 4/24/1997

Born Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico

College None

Drafted 2013 CLE

Non-tendered by Detroit

2BFree Agent

November 18, 2022

The Tigers declined to tender Castro a contract for 2023.

ANALYSIS
There was some buzz around Castro upon his arrival in 2019. While it didn't pan out with the Tigers, he's still only 25 years old and showed flashes during the shortened 2020 season. Castro can play both middle infield spots and even got some run in center field last season.

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Batting Stats

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2022

2021

2020

2019

2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+6%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+2%

OPS vs LHP

2021

+17%

OPS vs LHP

2020

+10%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.706	284	34	5	31	2	.277	.300	.406
Since 2020vs Right	.667	698	90	18	62	16	.234	.290	.377
2022vs Left	.660	123	13	3	13	1	.250	.260	.400
2022vs Right	.646	269	34	5	18	8	.237	.295	.351
2021vs Left	.694	136	17	1	15	1	.281	.311	.383
2021vs Right	.593	314	39	8	23	8	.193	.256	.337
2020vs Left	1.005	25	4	1	3	0	.391	.440	.565
2020vs Right	.916	115	17	5	21	0	.340	.368	.547
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+6%

OPS at Home

2022

+39%

OPS at Home

2021

+17%

OPS on Road

2020

+15%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.698	489	63	13	48	8	.258	.304	.394
Since 2020Away	.659	493	61	10	45	10	.236	.282	.378
2022Home	.750	209	26	5	19	3	.289	.322	.428
2022Away	.539	183	21	3	12	6	.187	.240	.298
2021Home	.574	225	28	5	19	5	.204	.263	.311
2021Away	.674	225	28	4	19	4	.237	.283	.391
2020Home	1.012	55	9	3	10	0	.367	.400	.612
2020Away	.882	85	12	3	14	0	.338	.369	.513
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Stat Review

How does Willi Castro compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.18

BB Rate

3.8%

K Rate

20.9%

BABIP

.288

ISO

.126

AVG

.241

OBP

.284

SLG

.367

OPS

.651

wOBA

.287

Exit Velocity

84.8 mph

Hard Hit Rate

22.0%

Barrels/PA

2.6%

Expected BA

.261

Expected SLG

.339

Sprint Speed

25.1 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

41.9%

Line Drive %

22.5%

Fly Ball %

35.6%

Prospect Rankings History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

No one expected Castro to approach the .931 he registered in the pandemic season, but last year's fall from grace was steeper than anticipated. Castro's plate skills and batted ball profile were virtually identical, but his .448 BABIP in 2020 and .275 mark last season were on opposite ends of the luck spectrum. Assuming his BABIP settles in the middle, Castro has some pop and can run, but he profiles more as a bench piece, at least on a contending team. He's a middle infielder by trade but Castro has dabbled at the hot corner and outfield so he could serve as a super-utility guy. The Tigers aren't quite ready to compete yet, so Castro may get another chance to prove he's a regular, but there's nothing in his resume worth chasing for a fantasy breakout.

Castro won't hit .349 (or even .300) over a full season. It was encouraging to see a big improvement over the .230 mark posted in 110 PA the year prior, although Castro's 27.1 K% and 85.3 mph average exit velocity don't support a lofty average. A 41.9% groundball rate with 84th percentile speed buoyed an unsustainable .448 BABIP. Plus, an 86.2-mph flyball average exit velocity doesn't back a 20.7% rate on HR/FB. Countering some of the regression will be physical maturation and skills growth as Castro will be just 24 years old as he embarks on his first full campaign. It's curious why Castro only tried one steal after swiping 17 of 21 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A. Shortstop is loaded and deep while Castro has yet to establish a trustworthy baseline. Helping his case is bonus third-base eligibility in many leagues.

We've been spoiled by some elite prospects this decade. Now when a prospect struggles initially, we have a tendency to label the player as one thing and mostly write them off. Let's give Castro another shot before we put him out of our collective consciousness. At 22 years old, Castro hit over .300 at Triple-A with 11 homers and 17 steals in 21 attempts. He struck out 21% of the time at that level, but that number jumped to north of 30% in the majors and he recorded only one barrel among 68 batted-ball events. Given the batted-ball numbers, it's reasonable to be skeptical about Castro hitting for the kinds of averages we saw on the farm, but Castro's average sprint speed ranked in the 86th percentile and opportunity should be there on a rebuilding Tigers club. He will compete for a starting role in spring training.

The first half of 2018 was a disappointment, but Castro turned it on after a deadline trade to the Tigers, posting a robust 155 wRC+ in 26 games with Double-A Erie to earn a promotion to Triple-A to close out his age-21 season. Castro does not project to provide a lot of category juice -- he's topped out with 11 home runs and 20 steals, the latter being a generous reflection of his speed. However, he has displayed decent bat-to-ball ability for his age, with his strikeout rate never exceeding 21.9% over a meaningful sample. There's also at least some hope for more power as he matures and fills out his 6-foot-1 frame. Detroit brought in Jordy Mercer as a stopgap at shortstop and Niko Goodrum is seemingly locked in at second base for the time being, so it's difficult to imagine we see Castro debut in 2019. If he builds on his late run at Triple-A, we could see Castro early on in 2020.

Last season was Castro's first year in pro ball as an above-league-average hitter (115 wRC+), but the breakout at High-A in his age-20 season looks legitimate. His 11 homers topped his career total entering the year (10 in 236 games), but his 8.3 percent HR/FB was not alarming, and it simply looks like a young player naturally growing into some pop. He has 64 career steals, but with just slightly above-average speed and a career 66.7 percent success rate, it would be foolish to expect him to steal more than 10 or 12 bases annually in his early years in the majors. Castro cut his pull rate from 50 percent at Low-A to 43.7 percent at High-A, and considering he excels at making contact (17.6 percent strikeout rate), he should be able to continue to hit for fairly high batting averages in the upper levels. He could stick at shortstop, but will likely eventually move to second base or center field if he remains with the Indians.

A switch-hitting shortstop from Puerto Rico, Castro held his own as a 19-year-old at Low-A. Perhaps predictably, he struggled at times to make contact. Castro hit .259 with a .283 OBP in 123 games. He fanned 96 times while drawing just 16 walks. Still, Castro showed an intriguing power/speed combination, smacking seven home runs while swiping 16 bases. The potential for double-digit home runs and stolen bases for a 19-year-old at a middle infield position makes him a prospect to watch. He is built in the same mold as current Indians superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, though nobody is saying Castro has anywhere near that kind of ceiling. He must refine his approach and exercise more patience at the dish. Castro should start the 2017 campaign at High-A.

Castro, 18, offers a hit-over-power with a little speed offensive profile at shortstop. At 6-foot-1 and 165 pounds, there is room to project a tad more power down the road, but batting average, runs, and steals will be the foundation of his fantasy value. He slashed .264/.304/.330 with one home run and 20 steals (on 27 attempts) in 67 games in the New York-Penn League, where the average player was more than three years his senior. His 10.3% K-rate also demonstrates an advanced ability to make contact, although the fact that he has never posted a BABIP over .295 suggests that contact is often weak. While shortstops with Castro’s profile, such as Erick Aybar, are useful once they reach the big leagues, his lack of double-digit home run power and an ETA of at least 2019 makes him difficult to roster in most formats.

More Fantasy News

Working in offseason program

2BDetroit Tigers

November 8, 2022

The Tigers announced Tuesday that Castro (hamstring) is fully healthy and taking part in in his normal offseason program, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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