This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
For the latest NBA Odds, including NBA Futures and NBA player props, visit RotoWire's NBA Betting page. We also have betting tools like Historical NBA Odds and ATS Standings. For up-to-date NBA player news and NBA Injury Report info, head to RotoWire's NBA Lineups page. You can find more picks at Bookies.com/picks.
Not sure where to bet? Check out our information on NBA Betting Apps and NBA Betting Sites.
If you play fantasy basketball, check out RotoWire's NBA Fantasy Advice and helpful tools like our Current Fantasy Basketball Rankings and NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer.
Get The RotoWire Picks App: Search "RotoWire Picks" on your iPhone, iPad or Android device.
Top NBA Bets and Player Props for Wednesday, May 7
Nikola Jokic over 13.5 rebounds (+110, DraftKings)
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Alex Barutha (9:30 AM CT): Jokic "only" averaged 11.7 rebounds last round against the Clippers, who he averaged 10.0 rebounds against during the regular season. In Game 1 against OKC, Jokic had 22 boards, and he averaged 15.8 boards against them during the regular season. This 13.5 mark is high, but not so high that it scares me off given his history against the Thunder. For what it's worth, I also like Jokic 3+ steals at +370 on FanDuel. He's hit that mark in four of eight playoff games.
Jayson Tatum over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-102, FanDuel)
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Alex Barutha (9:30 AM CT): Tatum was Boston's primary distributor in Game 1, racking up six assists. That came despite the Celtics' poor shooting (35.1%). I expect Boston to shoot better this time around. Notably, Tatum had 17 potential assists, which would typically translate into something like seven or eight assists. Tatum also had 16 boards in Game 1, which came on the highest adjusted rebound chance percentage (94.1%) on the team. Most of those boards were replicable shorter ones as well, with an average distance of 4.7 feet. In the playoffs as a whole, Tatum is averaging 12.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (-150, BetMGM)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Alex Barutha (9:10 AM CT): Most books have this at 7.5 assists, but I'll take the lower number at longer odds for safety. I ended up liking a lot of assists props for today, based on potential assists. SGA managed to rack up 21 potential assists in Game 1, which resulted in eight real assists. Assuming nine or 10 dimes is closer to the expected outcome, it's hard for me not to like over 6.5 assists, even if it comes with a lot of juice. He's averaging 6.4 assists across 35.8 minutes in the whole postseason.
Jalen Williams over 1.5 made threes (-130, DraftKings)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Alex Barutha (9:40 AM CT): I also don't mind Alex Caruso over 1.5 threes (+130) or Lu Dort over 2.5 threes (-110), but Williams is safer from a minutes perspective. Williams went 2-for-9 from distance in Game 1, with all nine of his triples being classified as "open" or "wide open". Minus his 0-for-4 performance in Game 1 against the Grizzlies, Williams is making 2.0 threes at 30.8% in the postseason. That should trend upward.
Mikal Bridges over 1.5 steals (+235, FanDuel)
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
Alex Barutha (9:45 AM CT): Bridges is averaging 1.7 steals in the postseason. The deflection numbers are lower than I'd like (3.3), but we're also getting over 2-to-1 odds on this. In Game 1 against the Celtics, he had three steals on four deflections and one defensive loose ball recovered.
Alex Caruso over 1.5 steals (-105, Hard Rock)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Alex Barutha (10:00 AM CT): On RotoWire, we have a convenient NBA Player Props page listing multiple books and their lines for a myriad of props. When I saw this number, I actually had to open a new tab, go to the Hard Rock Sportsbook website, and find this number to verify that it's real. It is real. I saw it. I clicked it. It is, in fact, for the over. Not the under. FanDuel has this at -158, and DraftKings has it at -140. Caruso is averaging 2.8 steals in the playoffs, and that counts Game 1 against Memphis where he recorded zero steals in 12 minutes. He is averaging 5.2 deflections these playoffs. He had seven deflections and one defensive loose ball recovered in Game 1 against the Nuggets. This is an auto-bet for the foreseeable future, assuming this -105 is ever presented to us again.
Aaron Gordon over 2.5 assists (-102, FanDuel)
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Alex Barutha (9:05 AM CT): Gordon registered one assist in the Game 1 win, and he's averaging 2.0 assists per game in the postseason. However, NBA.com credited Gordon with nine potential assists, which gives him a realistic outcome of more like four assists. These margins aren't huge, but getting the ball out of Jokic's hands has to be part of OKC's gameplan going forward. In Game 1, extra responsibilities floated to Gordon.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O6.5 AST (-148, BetRivers)
Thunder vs. Nuggets, 9:30pm ET
Nick Whalen (3:30 PM CT): Gilgeous-Alexander went over this number in Game 1, finishing with eight assists, but that number should have been higher, as he had 21 assist chances in 40 minutes. OKC's role players should be able to cash in on those opportunities at a higher rate in Game 2, but even if they don't, 6.5 is a friendly enough number that I'm willing to buy in at a less-than-ideal price.
Aaron Gordon O6.5 REB (-114, FanDuel)
Thunder vs. Nuggets, 9:30pm ET
Nick Whalen (3:30 PM CT): We took Gordon's PTS+REB prop in Game 1 (21.5), but this time we'll focus just on the rebounding after Gordon grabbed 14 boards on Monday night. That number will likely come down, but the Thunder will first need to focus on keeping Nikola Jokic off the glass, so I like Gordon's chances to exploit OKC's relative lack of size/strength again in Game 2.
Celtics team total O109.5 (-140, FanDuel)
Celtics vs. Knicks, 7:00pm ET
Nick Whalen (3:30 PM CT): The slow pace of Game 1 is a concern, but the Celtics still reached 100 points in regulation despite one of the worst three-point shooting performances in NBA history. Boston missed 45 – forty-five – three-point attempts and scored just 39 points in the second half. While the Celtics likely won't hoist 60 attempts again, the efficiency should improve.
I'm taking the OVER on Al Horford grabbing 5.5 rebounds
(BetMGM, -105, 10am EST)
Ken Crites (9:14 AM CT): This mysterious Kristaps Porzingis illness has me concerned. Plus, the Boston bench is thinner with Sam Hauser likely out (ankle). Enter 38-year-old veteran Al Horford, who grabbed seven boards in Game 1. Big Al averaged 6.2 rebounds a game throughout the 2024-25 season, so even under normal circumstances I like his chances. But over six playoff games, Horford is collecting 6.8 rebounds per contest. Horford was built for the grit and grind of playoff basketball. But, hey, the K-Train is a modest 12-11 this season, so feel free to fade!
