The Prospect Post: Mock Lottery 3.0

1. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) (9-47)

Markelle Fultz // PG // Washington

This pick remains unchanged. The Nets will cruise to the worst record in the league, giving the Celtics a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery (if they keep this pick). While I'm still on record of preferring Josh Jackson (ever so slightly) to Fultz, that is an extreme minority opinion. Part of what makes that Brooklyn pick so valuable is that the team that trades for it does not need to win the lottery to get a potential franchise player in this draft. Fultz has a chance to be one of the rare point guards who is a negative on the defensive end and is so elite offensively that he can still be the best player on a 50-win team.

2. Phoenix Suns (18-39)

Josh Jackson // SF // Kansas

This is a layup for the Suns. They already have Eric Bledsoe at point guard, and don't have a franchise player on the wing. Jackson will be a difference maker immediately because of his defense, passing, dominance in the open court and high basketball IQ. His jump shot is coming along, and if he gets to a point where he is shooting at least 40 percent from behind the arc, he will be an MVP candidate in his peak seasons. His floor is being an elite role player in the Shawn Marion mold.

3. Los Angeles Lakers (19-39)

Lonzo Ball // PG // UCLA

If the draft order went according to the All-Star break odds, the Lakers would keep their pick (it goes to Philly if it falls outside the top three). If they keep it, they will get to take whoever falls out of Fultz, Jackson and Ball. I have a feeling that many Lakers fans would prefer Ball of the three, given his UCLA roots, and new president of basketball operations Magic Johnson will surely appreciate Ball's pass-first nature and flashy style.

4. Orlando Magic (21-37)

Dennis Smith // PG // NC State

The Magic are a complete mess, and hopefully they are finally willing to accept that Elfrid Payton is not the long-term answer at point guard. A Smith/Evan Fournier backcourt would be an excellent pairing, as Smith's shooting is perhaps his only notable measurable weakness right now.

5. Philadelphia 76ers (21-35)

Jonathan Isaac // SF // Florida State

Things get very tricky to predict after the top three, but Isaac clearly belongs in the top seven. He does not need to dominate the ball on offense to be effective, and he has the potential to be an excellent floor stretcher, which makes him an excellent piece to pair with Ben Simmons on the wing. He is very similar defensively to Nerlens Noel, which would allow the Sixers to feel good about dealing Noel, along with Jahlil Okafor.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves (22-35)

Jayson Tatum // SF // Duke

The Timberwolves are the toughest team to peg right now because their president of basketball operations is a defense-first guy, yet most of the players after Jackson in the top-8 are offense-first options. Tatum is also similar from a skills standpoint to Andrew Wiggins, which further complicates matters. In the end, the Timberwolves would be foolish to reach for a better fit in a player like Robert Williams, so Tatum is the pick, but I don't feel good about it.

7. Dallas Mavericks (22-34)

Frank Ntilikina // PG // France

Ntilikina absolutely belongs in the top seven in this draft. He is comparable from a physical and skills standpoint to Lonzo Ball and Dennis Smith, but he has much less fanfare because he plays overseas. The Mavericks would love a young point guard to build around, and Ntilikina does not have any notable weaknesses.

8. Sacramento Kings (via New Orleans Pelicans) (23-34)

Lauri Markkanen // PF // Arizona

This pick will likely be lower in the lottery, or perhaps out of the lottery altogether if the Pelicans can grab the eighth seed after the DeMarcus Cousins acquisition. For now, they are sitting pretty with the No. 8 pick. Markkanen, a seven footer who doubles as perhaps the best shooter in the class, is a one of the safest players available at this point, but his defensive limitations put a cap on his ceiling. The Kings need help at every position, so they should be in best-player-available mode.

9. New York Knicks (23-34)

Robert Williams // PF/C // Texas A&M

Williams is the best defensive big man in the draft, but at 6-foot-9 he is undersized. However, he pairs perfectly with Kristaps Porzingis, as Porzingis is oversized for a four. Williams should average a double-double with two-plus blocks per game as soon as he sees starter's minutes. He has a chance to go several spots higher if a team is desperate for a two-way player.

10. Portland Trail Blazers (23-33)

Justin Patton // C // Creighton

I expect a few teams in the back half of the lottery to fall in love with Patton as the draft process heats up. He has a chance to be a two-way center who can also step out and shoot threes, and players like that are incredibly hard to find.

11. Chicago Bulls (via Sacramento Kings) (24-33)

Malik Monk // SG // Kentucky

Of all the things that seem like locks to change between now and the lottery, it is that the Kings should move into the top-10 and therefore keep this pick, as it only goes to Chicago if it falls outside the top 10. For now, however, the odds would side with the Bulls getting it. This may seem like a dramatic fall for Monk, who I believe the Kings would strongly consider at No. 8, but he really only brings volume shooting to the table. The fact that he could fall out of the top-10 speaks to how deep this draft is, as he would have had a good chance to go No. 3 overall last year.

12. Charlotte Hornets (24-32)

Miles Bridges // SF // Michigan State

The Hornets are in a rough spot, as they aren't good enough to compete but also haven't made any rebuilding moves. Bridges gives them an athletic wing who has a chance to develop into a an average starter in the NBA. Unlike Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, for instance, Bridges can stretch the floor, but he is a bit of a tweener and has as much bust potential as anyone projected to go in the lottery.

13. Miami Heat (25-32)

Ivan Rabb // PF // California

I've compared Rabb to Chris Bosh in the past, and the Heat would surely like to add a player with Bosh's skill to complement Hassan Whiteside up front. Rabb doesn't shoot from beyond the arc often, but he has the aptitude to be a true stretch four who rebounds much better than the typical stretch four.

14. Milwaukee Bucks (25-30)

Harry Giles // PF // Duke

Giles could fall out of the lottery, but the Bucks have shown that they like to take big swings when picking around this spot in past years, and the former No. 1 prospect in this class certainly qualifies. If his play/usage at Duke is any indicator, he won't be ready to be a big contributor anytime soon, but the Bucks won't be ready to truly contend until Jabari Parker returns from knee surgery and Thon Maker develops into a more reliable rotation piece, so Giles' timetable would actually line up nicely.

De'Aaron Fox, T.J. Leaf, OG Anunoby, Rodions Kurucs and John Collins just missed the cut.

Top 10 Prospects
Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas (Last rank: 1)
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington (Last rank: 2)
Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA (Last rank: 3)
Dennis Smith, PG, NC State (Last rank: 6)
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France (Last rank: 5)
Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State (Last rank: 4)
Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke (Last rank: 7)
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona (Last rank: 8)
Robert Williams, PF, Texas A&M (Last rank: NR)
Justin Patton, C, Creighton (Last rank: 10)