Marvin Bagley

The clock is ticking for Bagley, who has failed to live up to expectations. Now in his fifth season in the NBA, the former number two pick finds himself in arguably the most favorable position of his career, outside of his rookie season. After falling out of the rotation with Sacramento during the 2021-22 campaign, Bagley was acquired by Detroit before the trade deadline. While his numbers were far from spectacular during his 25 games to close the season, he showed enough, earning himself a long-term deal with the Pistons. In those 25 games, Bagley averaged 14.2 points and 7.1 rebounds in just under 27 minutes per game. Unfortunately, he also managed only 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.5 threes -- numbers that he will need to rectify should he hope to turn his career around. There is a chance Bagley slots into the Pistons' starting lineup, which could at least allow him to log significant minutes to open the season. His lack of peripheral production does not lend itself to fantasy value, however. So, while he may have moments of relevance, he is unlikely to be a viable target outside of deeper formats. However, he'll start the season injured, as a sprained knee will keep him sidelined for at least a few weeks.

Bagley has failed to live up to expectations that come with being the No. 2 overall pick, as he was in 2018. Staying on the court has been the primary issue for the forward, as he's appeared in just 118 games across his first three seasons. Last season was Bagley's worst from a per-game fantasy perspective, where he ranked 230th, and a per-minute perspective, where he ranked 289th. In 25.9 minutes, he averaged 14.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.0 assists. On a positive note, he showed off an improved three-point shot, going 37-of-108 for a career-high 34.3 percent. The 2021-22 season is huge for Bagley, as it's his final season before entering restricted free agency. There's a good chance he starts at power forward unless coach Luke Walton decides to surprisingly start all three of De'Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, which would probably result in Harrison Barnes sliding up to power forward. Ultimately, Bagley needs to make strides as an efficient shooter to start becoming an impactful player. Adding some playmaking ability and defensive stats would be a plus as well, but in the modern pace-and-space era, Bagley being able to convert open threes would go a long way. It would be understandable for fantasy managers in standard leagues to take a gamble on Bagley hoping for some long-awaited payoff in a contract year.

Bagley endured thumb and foot injuries that cost him the better part of his second NBA season. The 2018 first-round pick (second overall) has rightfully earned an injury-prone tag as a result since he's suited up in just 75 games over two seasons in the Association. Considering he hasn't played in a game since Jan. 20, Bagley should enter the 2020-21 season at full health, walking into a starting gig at power forward immediately. If that's the case, he could push for 30 minutes per game, a sizable uptick from the 25.7 he averaged last year. The 21-year-old has evident upside if that comes to fruition. Through 13 games last year, he posted 14.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per contest while hitting 46.7 percent of his field goals, and an increase in playing time would be a blessing for his fantasy upside.

Prior to February, Bagley dealt with injury issues and was eased into a role, seeing just 23.5 minutes per game across 37 appearances. Things opened up for the rookie once February hit, however. Across the final three months of the season, the Duke product averaged 17.8 points on 14.0 shots, 9.1 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 27.7 minutes. He kept up the great production during his four starts, averaging 20.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists. At the age of 19, Bagley has already demonstrated upside as one of the league's better offensive rebounders, ranking 17th in offensive rebound percentage (10.4). Heading into his second season, Bagley's role as the Kings' starting power forward seems cemented, and it would be surprising if he saw much fewer than 30 minutes per contest. While his three-pointer (30-for-96, 31.3%) and free-throw shooting (181-for-262, 69.1%) need some work, he was able to shoot an impressive 50.4 percent from the field overall. As is the case with many promising second-year players, he'll likely have an aggressive ADP come draft season, and fantasy owners may have to take on some risk if they want land Bagley for certain.

Bagley spent last season at Duke as a freshman, where he won ACC Player of the year by averaging 21.0 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. He also shot 61.4 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from deep, though took only 1.8 threes per contest. That resume was strong enough for the Kings to draft Bagley No. 2 overall during the 2018 Draft. He appeared in four summer league tilts with the team, but was underwhelming, posting averages of 10.3 points on 33.3 percent shooting, 5.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks across 26.1 minutes. Still, Bagley, who is 6-foot-11 and 234 pounds, is expected to start at power forward to begin the season and should see significant run in the frontcourt, and maybe even some at small forward. He should be a nightly double-double threat, though it’s not clear if he'll be a dynamic enough of a scorer during Year 1 to make big impact at the NBA level. All things considered, Bagley’s pedigree and projected usage alone is probably enough to be worth a late-round flyer at the very least in most standard formats.