Marvin Bagley

26-Year-Old CenterC

Memphis Grizzlies NBA

2024 Stats

PTS

4.4

REB

2.7

AST

0.4

STL

0.3

BLK

0.3

ROS Projections

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Bagley began his career with high expectations after the Kings selected him with the No. 2 pick of the 2018 Draft. However, the 25-year-old has yet to surpass his rookie season, during which he averaged 14.9 points and 7.6 rebounds across 25.3 minutes per game in 62 regular-season outings. After a four-year stint with the Kings, Bagley was traded to Detroit, where he struggled to establish a prominent role due partly to a knee injury, a lingering back injury and a surgery to repair two fractured fingers on his non-shooting hand. The Pistons eventually traded the big man to the Wizards last season. In Washington, Bagley averaged 13.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.4 combined steals and blocks in 24.0 minutes per game for a non-contending team. However, he may struggle to carve out a prominent role with the Wizards this season after the team signed Jonas Valanciunas and selected Alex Sarr with the No. 2 pick. Furthermore, Bagley will have to compete for minutes off the bench with Richaun Holmes and Tristan Vukcevic. Bagley's fantasy upside relies on his offensive production and rebounding, and if he's unable to exceed 20-plus minutes per game, he will likely be a non-factor in fantasy formats. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS
Current Season

#430

Overall Rank

From Preseason

#158

ADP

Height 6'10"

Weight 235

DOB 3/14/1999

College Duke

Drafted 1st Rd, #2 in 2018

Personal Bio/PreCareer Summary

Marvin Bagley III was born in 1999 in Tempe, Arizona. He is the son of Marvin Bagley Jr. and Tracy Bagley and has two brothers. His father played college football at North Carolina A&T and went on to play professionally in the Arena Football League. Bagley's grandfather, Joe Caldwell, played six seasons in the NBA from 1964-70 and five seasons in the American Basketball Association from 1970-75. Caldwell is one of 20 players to make an All-Star team in both the NBA and ABA, and he won a gold medal as a member of Team USA at the 1964 Summer Olympics in Japan. Bagley III played high school ball first at Corona del Sol in Tempe as a freshman, then at Hillcrest Prep Academy in Phoenix as a sophomore. At Hillcrest, Bagley was teammates with fellow NBA big man Deandre Ayton. He transferred again, this time to Sierra Canyon School in Chatsworth, California, which cost him a year of eligibility. Bagley averaged 24.9 points and 10.1 rebounds per game during his 2016-17 season at Sierra Canyon. Bagley won the 2017 Gatorade California Player of the Year and John R. Wooden CIF Southern Section Player of the Year awards while maintaining a 3.4 grade-point average. Bagley loves to write and record music. While living in Los Angeles, he volunteered at Hoops with Heart, a non-profit benefiting underprivileged youth. Fans can follow him on Twitter (@MB3FIVE) and Instagram (mb3five). After reclassifying from the 2018 class to the high school 2017 class, Marvin Bagley landed at Duke University as the consensus top recruit in the country. Bagley averaged 21.0 points, 11.1 rebounds, 0.9 blocks and 0.7 three-pointers per game while shooting 61.4 percent from the field in his lone season (2017-18) at Duke. The season was filled with notable performances such as a 32-point, 21-rebound outburst against Florida State, just the eighth 30-20 game in Duke history. In an ACC Tournament matchup with Notre Dame, Bagley posted 33 points, the third most by a freshman in the tournament history. He also recorded 17 rebounds, one short of tying Ralph Sampson's freshman tournament mark. Bagley's freshman campaign came to an end with an NCAA Tournament Elite Eight loss to the Kansas Jayhawks. His season culminated in consensus first-team All-American honors, first-team All-ACC honors, as well as both the ACC Rookie of the Year and ACC Player of the Year awards. At the end of his freshman season, Bagley declared himself eligible for the 2018 NBA Draft and was chosen by the Sacramento Kings with the second overall pick.

Idle in final two playoff games

CMemphis Grizzlies

April 27, 2025

Bagley did not play in Game 3 or Game 4 of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs against the Thunder.

ANALYSIS
Bagley saw extended playing time in a Game 1 blowout, finishing with 17 points, five rebounds, two steals and one block over 16 minutes, but he proceeded to record only one rebound over 11 minutes in Game 2. Bagley started the regular season with the Wizards but was traded to the Grizzlies in early February. He appeared in just 12 regular-season games (one start) for Memphis due to an ankle injury and concussion, averaging 3.6 points and 2.3 rebounds over 8.3 minutes. The 2018 first-round pick out of Duke will enter the offseason as an unrestricted free agent.

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Stat Review

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2018

How does Marvin Bagley compare to other players?

This section compares his stats with all players from the previous three seasons (minimum 200 minutes played)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

True Shooting %
An advanced statistic that measures a player's efficiency at shooting the ball that takes field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and three point percentage into account.
Effective Field Goal %
A statistic that adjusts field goal percentage to account for the fact that three-point field goals count for three points while field goals only count for two points.
3-Point Attempt Rate
Percentage of field goal attempts from three point range.
Free Throw Rate
Number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
Offensive Rebound %
An estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor.
Defensive Rebound %
An estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor.
Total Rebound %
An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor.
Assist %
An estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while they were on the floor.
Steal %
An estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while they were on the floor.
Block %
An estimate of the percentage of opponent two-point field goal attempts blocked by the player while they were on the floor.
Turnover %
An estimate of turnovers committed per 100 plays.
Usage %
An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while they were on the floor.
Fantasy Points Per Game
NBA Fantasy Points Per Game.
Fantasy Points Per Minute
NBA Fantasy Points Per Minute.

True Shooting %

53.4%

Effective Field Goal %

50.0%

3-Point Attempt Rate

25.7%

Free Throw Rate

34.3%

Offensive Rebound %

11.9%

Defensive Rebound %

18.0%

Total Rebound %

15.0%

Assist %

5.4%

Steal %

0.8%

Block %

2.8%

Turnover %

2.2%

Usage %

16.8%

Fantasy Points Per Game

8.1

Fantasy Points Per Minute

1.0

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NBA Historical Fantasy Stats

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Average Fantasy Points

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

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2018

Bagley was a highly touted prospect when he was drafted with the second overall pick in 2018, but his career has not gone as hoped. He really struggled in a four-year stint with the Sacramento Kings and then was acquired by the Detroit Pistons last season. That looked like a promising landing spot, but the Pistons are throwing way too many fruits into the blender. They added James Wiseman last season as well, which is strange since they have promising youngsters like Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren in the frontcourt. All of those guys have potential, but it's too many bodies for not enough frontcourt minutes. Duren seems to be the only one with a solidified role, but Bagley did start the final month of last season. In that expanded role, Bagley averaged 14.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.7 blocks on 52 percent shooting across the final 17 games of the year. He did that damage in 27 minutes a night, but Stewart missed most of those games as well. It's hard to imagine Bagley coming anywhere near 30 minutes with how deep this frontcourt is, and that's a scary proposition since his only fantasy relevance comes through scoring and rebounding. His lack of defense has really killed his career, and it's killing his fantasy value as well.

The clock is ticking for Bagley, who has failed to live up to expectations. Now in his fifth season in the NBA, the former number two pick finds himself in arguably the most favorable position of his career, outside of his rookie season. After falling out of the rotation with Sacramento during the 2021-22 campaign, Bagley was acquired by Detroit before the trade deadline. While his numbers were far from spectacular during his 25 games to close the season, he showed enough, earning himself a long-term deal with the Pistons. In those 25 games, Bagley averaged 14.2 points and 7.1 rebounds in just under 27 minutes per game. Unfortunately, he also managed only 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.5 threes -- numbers that he will need to rectify should he hope to turn his career around. There is a chance Bagley slots into the Pistons' starting lineup, which could at least allow him to log significant minutes to open the season. His lack of peripheral production does not lend itself to fantasy value, however. So, while he may have moments of relevance, he is unlikely to be a viable target outside of deeper formats. However, he'll start the season injured, as a sprained knee will keep him sidelined for at least a few weeks.

Bagley has failed to live up to expectations that come with being the No. 2 overall pick, as he was in 2018. Staying on the court has been the primary issue for the forward, as he's appeared in just 118 games across his first three seasons. Last season was Bagley's worst from a per-game fantasy perspective, where he ranked 230th, and a per-minute perspective, where he ranked 289th. In 25.9 minutes, he averaged 14.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.0 assists. On a positive note, he showed off an improved three-point shot, going 37-of-108 for a career-high 34.3 percent. The 2021-22 season is huge for Bagley, as it's his final season before entering restricted free agency. There's a good chance he starts at power forward unless coach Luke Walton decides to surprisingly start all three of De'Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, which would probably result in Harrison Barnes sliding up to power forward. Ultimately, Bagley needs to make strides as an efficient shooter to start becoming an impactful player. Adding some playmaking ability and defensive stats would be a plus as well, but in the modern pace-and-space era, Bagley being able to convert open threes would go a long way. It would be understandable for fantasy managers in standard leagues to take a gamble on Bagley hoping for some long-awaited payoff in a contract year.

Bagley endured thumb and foot injuries that cost him the better part of his second NBA season. The 2018 first-round pick (second overall) has rightfully earned an injury-prone tag as a result since he's suited up in just 75 games over two seasons in the Association. Considering he hasn't played in a game since Jan. 20, Bagley should enter the 2020-21 season at full health, walking into a starting gig at power forward immediately. If that's the case, he could push for 30 minutes per game, a sizable uptick from the 25.7 he averaged last year. The 21-year-old has evident upside if that comes to fruition. Through 13 games last year, he posted 14.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per contest while hitting 46.7 percent of his field goals, and an increase in playing time would be a blessing for his fantasy upside.

Prior to February, Bagley dealt with injury issues and was eased into a role, seeing just 23.5 minutes per game across 37 appearances. Things opened up for the rookie once February hit, however. Across the final three months of the season, the Duke product averaged 17.8 points on 14.0 shots, 9.1 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 27.7 minutes. He kept up the great production during his four starts, averaging 20.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists. At the age of 19, Bagley has already demonstrated upside as one of the league's better offensive rebounders, ranking 17th in offensive rebound percentage (10.4). Heading into his second season, Bagley's role as the Kings' starting power forward seems cemented, and it would be surprising if he saw much fewer than 30 minutes per contest. While his three-pointer (30-for-96, 31.3%) and free-throw shooting (181-for-262, 69.1%) need some work, he was able to shoot an impressive 50.4 percent from the field overall. As is the case with many promising second-year players, he'll likely have an aggressive ADP come draft season, and fantasy owners may have to take on some risk if they want land Bagley for certain.

Bagley spent last season at Duke as a freshman, where he won ACC Player of the year by averaging 21.0 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. He also shot 61.4 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from deep, though took only 1.8 threes per contest. That resume was strong enough for the Kings to draft Bagley No. 2 overall during the 2018 Draft. He appeared in four summer league tilts with the team, but was underwhelming, posting averages of 10.3 points on 33.3 percent shooting, 5.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks across 26.1 minutes. Still, Bagley, who is 6-foot-11 and 234 pounds, is expected to start at power forward to begin the season and should see significant run in the frontcourt, and maybe even some at small forward. He should be a nightly double-double threat, though it’s not clear if he'll be a dynamic enough of a scorer during Year 1 to make big impact at the NBA level. All things considered, Bagley’s pedigree and projected usage alone is probably enough to be worth a late-round flyer at the very least in most standard formats.

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Perfect off bench in playoff loss

CMemphis Grizzlies

April 20, 2025

Bagley logged 17 points (8-8 FG, 1-1 3Pt), five rebounds, one block and two steals across 16 minutes during Sunday's 131-80 loss to Oklahoma City in Game 1 of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.