What is a sports betting model?
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Last Updated: May 11, 2020
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Fact Checked By:
Adam Zdroik
A sports betting model is a system that can identify unbiased picks to determine the probability for all outcomes in a certain game.
At a functional level, the goal of a model is to highlight profitable betting opportunities by being more accurate than a bookmaker.
Needless to say, building a successful sports betting model is not easy. If it was easy, everyone would have their own model that could beat sportsbooks and sports betting wouldn't exist because sportsbooks would not make money.
Bookmakers usually have their own model in order to create betting lines, so the goal for a personal betting model would be to create a better, more efficient one.
There are a number of factors that go into building a sports betting model.
How to build a betting model
- What is the goal of the model? Why are you building a sports betting model? What sport? What advantage are you looking for?
- Pick a metric - What numbers are you using in order to reach your goal?
- Collect and modify data - Collect the needed numbers for your model.
- Choose a type of model - This usually depends on the kind of stats you use. Models can be as easy or as complex as you need them to be.
- Build the model - You have everything you need, now build it.
- Test the model - Do the results make sense? Test them to find out.
- Monitor results - Check the results on upcoming matchups and see how they turn out over a period of time.
- Win money - Success!
Clearly, one does not set out to create a sports betting model without an initial goal or basic knowledge of mathematical concepts. There's a reason betting models are only common for sportsbooks or full-time bettors. They take time to create and then you have to tweak them if something is off. It's an ongoing process that changes by the season.
However, if you find a fault in the betting odds and have the capabilities, a betting model is a good way to turn a net positive.
Read More Sports Betting Q&As
Yes. Sports betting is legal in North Carolina. It went live on March 11, 2024.
Yes. Michigan passed legislation to allow sports betting in December 2019 and the first physical sportsbooks opened in March 2020.
Yes. Illinois passed sports betting legislature in 2019 and launched at legal sportsbooks in March 2020.
Pennsylvania passed legislation to allow sports betting in 2017 and sportsbooks began taking bets in 2019.
Yes. Pennsylvania passed legislation to allow sports betting in 2017 and sportsbooks began taking bets in 2019.
A unit in sports betting is a measurement of the size of a given bet.
Yes. West Virginia passed a law to legalize and regulate sports betting in 2018 prior to the ending of PASPA.
Yes. Sports betting was legalized in Arkansas in 2018 and launched at physical locations a year later.
DraftKings is legal for sports betting via the DraftKings Sportsbook mobile app, website or retail location in close to 20 U.S. states and 44 for DFS.
While 21 is the more common age limit, there are states in which you can bet on sports if you are at least 18 years old.
The plus (+) and minus (-) in sports betting can refer to either the point spread or betting odds.
No. Maine's governor vetoed a sports betting bill in early 2020 and while the Senate and House tried to overturn it, they didn't succeed.
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Yes, sports betting is legal in North Carolina. It officially launched statewide on March 11, 2024.
Kentucky sports betting is legal. It went live on September 28, 2023.
Yes. Sports betting launched in Kentucky in September 2023.
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A futures bet is a bet on a future event, usually before a season starts.
Yes. Where legal, the Super Bowl is one of the most popular sporting events to bet on in the world, if not the most popular.
A hedge is a method to reduce risk and secure winnings for a specified bet.
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Yes. Tennessee sports betting was legalized in 2019 and launched in 2020.
Yes. Indiana passed a bill to allow sports betting in 2019 and wagering started in October with online betting opening a couple months later.
Yes, sports betting is legal in the state of Ohio.
Yes. Sports betting is legal and regulated in Arizona as of football season in 2021.
