I always stumble across a number of items I want to write about in the course of doing the projections for the annual baseball magazine. This blog is a pretty good forum for that, so over the next month or so, I hope to post often.
I'll start off with the Minnesota Twins. Last year they were a pleasant surprising, contending despite losing Torii Hunter and trading Johan Santana, finishing 88-75 after losing the one-game play-in versus the White Sox. Like the Rays in 2008, they have built a pretty good rotation from within, with plenty more in the pipeline. Despite the popular belief that they were a bat or two short, they actually were fourth in the majors last year in runs scored, with 829.
Yet after going player-by-player in the projections, I can't help but think that's a bit of a fluke. Here's what I think will be their starting position players, with their projected line for 2009:
C Joe Mauer - .323/.412/.461 - Many thought that he was ready to take the power leap like the other elite catchers after his 2006 season, when he hit 13 homers. I'm not convinced that wasn't his power peak. Not that I'd ever complain about my team's starting catcher having a .400+ OBP.
1B Justin Morneau - .295/.366/.506 - At one point in his career, he was underrated, both in baseball and in fantasy terms. Now, not so much, thanks to the BBRAA Seal-of-Approval thanks to all of those RBI - I think now the opposite is true, he's overrated because he knocks in Joe Mauer so frequently.
2B Alexi Casilla - .278/.338/.358 - Last year, his big breakout was to produce a .333 OBP with seven steals. I'm underwhelmed.
SS Nick Punto/Brendan Harris - going with the lousy offensive player and the less lousy offensive player. Punto actually go on-base at a .344 clip last year, but that's peak. .278/.338/.358. Harris is at .276/.342/.427. He was losing time in the second half because of his glovework.
3B Brian Buscher - .285/.347/.394; Matt Tolbert .275/.324/.385 At one point it looked as if they might trade for Adrian Beltre, but not so much now.
OF/DH Jason Kubel - .282/.348/.499; Michael Cuddyer - .269/.341/.427; Denard Span .288/.373/.430; Carlos Gomez - .259/.291/.359; Delmon Young - .298/.343/.441.
My projections for Span and Kubel are somewhat aggressive, my projection for Young's growth is a little conservative, because I don't see any change in his approach at the plate.
Overall, the Twins have a lot of similar hitters, with decent-but-not-great OBP's and middling power. I can't help but feel that they were lucky to score as many runs as they did last year (and their BA w/ runners in scoring position was pretty high, if I recall correctly). I suspect as an offense, they'll regress, and fall short of being 2009's version of the Rays.