1. St. Louis Cardinals
Hitting: The Cardinals don't jump out at you on paper, but there are no real weaknesses in the lineup, especially if Skip Schumaker can remain at second base. Having the game's best hitter has a big ripple effect on the rest of the lineup, and although losing Try Glaus is a big blow, David Freese is a capable replacement, and a healthy Chris Duncan should crush righties. Maybe Ryan Ludwick takes a small step back, but Rick Ankiel should show continued progression, and Khalil Greene could finally bust out away from Petco.
Pitching: This prediction largely hinges on Chris Carpenter's ability to return both effectively and remain off the DL, but his spring was highly encouraging. Adam Wainwright is a solid No. 2, and while no one would confuse the rest of the staff as aces, all are solid, and pitching coach Dave Duncan has a knack for getting the most out of his hurlers. The bullpen may be unproven, but Jason Motte and Chris Perez could form a dominant 8th and 9th inning duo.
2. Chicago Cubs
Hitting: On paper, the Cubs probably have the best team in the National League, so it may seem a bit crazy keeping them out of the postseason. They will certainly be contenders throughout, but there isn't a more combustible roster in baseball either, with health being the main issue. Derrek Lee's power is gone, and Aramis Ramirez is always good for a DL stint or two, and Mike Fontenot needs to prove last year wasn't a fluke, something his minor league track record suggests. Still, Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano are two more bats in what looks like a potent offense. Center field looks average at best, and while Milton Bradley will surely be productive when in the lineup, last season's 126 games played were easily the second highest total of his career, and that was with him playing 99 games at DH.
Pitching: This staff has the potential to make this second place prediction look awfully silly. Even Sean Marshall should be a well above average No. 5 starter. Still, there's a very good chance this group fails to live up to expectations. Carlos Zambrano has seen his K rate fall for three straight years, and his control remains substandard. No pitcher has been worked harder over the past six years. Ted Lilly is a better fantasy pitcher than a real life one. He's definitely solid, but the WHIP doesn't match the ERA because of all those homers surrendered. I have a tough time expecting a repeat from Ryan Dempster, and his command will be of the upmost importance. And then there's Rich Harden, who is pitching with a damaged arm. He was nothing short of brilliant after joining the Cubs last year, but don't forget that was accompanied by a .229 BABIP and an .873 strand rate. While his ERA was 1.77, his xFIP was 3.64. Chicago has the talent to win the World Series in 2009, but they also have a roster that could require a ton of depth to get them there.
3. Cincinnati Reds
Hitting: A year or two from now, Cincinnati should be division contenders. Don't be shocked if they hang around for quite some time this year as well. Joey Votto is ready to explode, and Jay Bruce might not be too far off either. Still, Edwin Encarnacion remains a disappointment, and the Willy Taveras signing was uninspired, although he does fit the Dusty Baker bill as far as not "clogging up the bases."
Pitching: Aaron Harang looked like a bounce back candidate entering 2009, but after a rocky spring, he now looks more like a future trade candidate. Still, Edinson Volquez is for real, while Johnny Cueto could emerge as the team's ace in the future. The biggest development for the Reds has been Homer Bailey this spring, as it now appears he may yet reach his vast potential, something that seemed highly unlikely last year. Micah Owings could probably make it as a batter in the league if he fails as a pitcher, and Bronson Arroyo's carpel tunnel syndrome may force him to begin the season on the DL.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Hitting: Prince Fielder's power should come all the way back in 2009, but the team will need Ryan Braun to get healthy fast. Can Bill Hall resurrect his career? Will Rickie Weeks ever stop disappointing?
Pitching: With the losses of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, the Brewers are no longer playoff contenders. While a full season of Yovani Gallardo should help, it remains to be seen how many innings he can pitch after throwing just 24 last year. Still, his future is plenty bright. Manny Parra has almost as much upside, but he really needs to improve his command (and remain healthy) for him to show it. The rest of the rotation is ho-hum, and the bullpen isn't all that deep.
5. Houston Astros
Hitting: With Michael Bourn in center and Geoff Blum at third, the Astros could employ two of the weaker position players in the National League. At least it won't be three after signing Pudge Rodriguez to play catcher, but Miguel Tejada is in major decline, and Lance Berkman can't be expected to repeat last year's performance. I like Hunter Pence as much as the next guy, but this is a hitter who has hit 24 more groundballs than fly balls throughout his career.
Pitching: Roy Oswalt stopped a 3.5 year decline with a fantastic second half last season, but that's unlikely to happen again. Wandy Rodriguez looks like a major breakout candidate and could emerge as the team's ace as soon as this season. However, any rotation featuring one of Mike Hampton or Russ Ortiz, let alone both, is a joke.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Hitting: At least they drafted Pedro Alvarez. Actually, it's not THAT terrible, as Nate McLouth looks like a plenty useful player, even if his defense is demonstratively overrated (and yes, I know he starts out playing shallow in center). Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Doumit are also solid, and Andy LaRoche could become the same as well. Nyjer Morgan could be a sneaky source for steals in fantasy leagues, but it's Jose Tabata who looks like a potential star in the future.
Pitching: The most important development for Pittsburgh this season may very well be Ian Snell's performance. Can he develop into a legit No. 2? Or was last year his true self? Improved command is a must, but there remains potential here. Paul Maholm posted a 3.71 ERA in 2008 and a 1.52 ERA this spring, but I'm not all that high on him because of a very pedestrian K rate. The rest of Pittsburgh's rotation – Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens – is pretty brutal.