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The RotoWire Blog has been retired.

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Should You Draft Target Field As PETCO East?

Written by 
Peter Schoenke
Published on February 15, 2011

I've seen a trend in early fantasy baseball drafts where Twins hitters are being discounted for their lack of success at hitting home runs at Target Field last season. Sure, it played as the worst home run park in the majors. But it was just one season. Is there an opportunity to bet against this trend?

The Twins moved into Target Field last season and there were 35 percent fewer long balls hit at Target Field than the average ballpark. Joe Mauer hit just one home run at Target Field. Justin Morneaucomplained the ball didn't travel saying: "Right-center to left-center is ridiculous." Morneau hit four home runs at home and 14 on the road before his season ended due to a concussion. Delmon Young hit six home runs at home and 15 on the road. Overall, the Twins hit 52 home runs at home compared to 90 on the road.

Still, it's just one year of data and there are several reason to think it won't become PETCO East. First, the Midwest usually has hot summers and the Twins previous home outside, Memorial Stadium, wasn't a pitcher's park. Target field has nearly the same dimensions as the Metrodome, except for a longer outfield wall in right field.

Metrodome vs. Target Field Dimensions

And last year seemed to have an unusual weather pattern for Minnesota with a very early, dry spring.

Wind patterns could be the one sustainable trend that would reduce home run totals. Target Field has an open concourse in right field and a second story encloses left and center field. As a result, there may be a wind pattern that blows out to right field and isn't present or even blows in from left field.

Still,  even with the drop in home runs, the park played neutral on a run scoring basis with a park factor of 100 for pitchers and 101 for hitters, according to Baseball-Reference. Target field produced above average rates for batting average, doubles and triples.

Weather is especially fluky and 85 or so home games may not be enough to establish wind patterns. It would seem that the value for fantasy leagues is to bet the park doesn't hinder home runs or at least plays neutral. After all, Enron/Minute Maid Park was thought to rival Coors Field as a hitter's park when it first opened. Yet, this season we rate Minute Maid Park as a slight pitcher's park.