The Pittsburgh Pirates last had a winning record and made the playoffs in 1992. The Kansas City Royals had a winning back in 2003, but the last time they made the playoffs was way back in 1985, when they beat the Cardinals in the World Series. Chances are the situation isn't that dire for the worst team in your keeper league, but the experiences of the Pirates and Royals do illustrate how difficult it can be for us fantasy leaguers to rebuild a franchise, and we can learn from the mistakes of those franchises. We'll talk about some of the common rebuilding problems here, and then discuss a few possible solutions to get out of the rebuilding rut in your keeper leagues.
- Don't conflate "inexpensive with "valuable."
In 2006, the Pirates signed Joe Randa to fill the hole left at third base by the brutal Aramis Ramirez salary dump trade to the Cubs. In the process, they left a prospect named Ty Wigginton off their 40-man roster and Wigginton was promptly snatched up by the Rays. The point here isn't to sing the praises of Wigginton, or to beat the dead horse that was David Littlefield's tenure as the GM of the Pirates. Instead, it's to point out that when you're looking to rebuild a losing franchise, getting a player on the cheap still has costs beyond the player's salary, be it in real life or in fantasy. Randa's space on the roster cost the Pirates ownership of Wigginton, and further prevented a young player by the name of Jose Bautista from getting valuable major league at-bats. Can you imagine how different the Pirates' fortunes might be if Bautista had his breakout season on the Pirates' watch? Similarly, acquiring a low-ceiling player in your draft, or worse, trading for an inexpensive but low-growth potential player can have longer-reaching consequences beyond that player's short-term limitations. All too often I see fantasy leaguers trade one star player for three inexpensive players that are barely above replacement value for their league. They almost always lose that trade, both in the short-term and in the long run. To use one notorious example from the RotoWire Staff League, a $1 Dallas Braden in a 5x5, mixed league isn't a trade target, even in a league that's 18 teams deep. He'll have his moments and will be better than your average $1 pitcher, but only by a small margin. If you get three Braden-types, not only do you get limited production from those players, but you lose the opportunity to fill your roster with more productive players. Those extra spots that those barely-above-replacement players fill have value, too.
- Keep your players at their peak value.
Carlos Beltran and Barry Bonds are the biggest examples of star players leaving the Royals and Pirates in their peak years, but there are others that have flown the coop from each franchise just in time for their peak years. The Royals felt compelled to trade Johnny Damon and Zack Greinke before they became free agents, and the Pirates did the same with Brian Giles and then Jason Bay. If you're in a traditional keeper league (as opposed to a dynasty league), you can run into the same problem. Many traditional keeper leagues give you a three-year window to keep a player, while others allow for a longer retention period at the cost of an escalating salary. A related problem is when we can no longer use a minor league or prospect slot to keep a player and have a limited number of retentions. I'm trying to rebuild in a Scoresheet league that allows us to keep just 10 players that no longer have Rookie of the Year eligibility. It's a 24-team mixed league, so while there's some depth, each keeper slot is precious. In the course of trying to rebuild I drafted a slew of young pitchers. One of those pitchers is Jake Arrieta from the Baltimore Orioles. While there are reasons to be sanguine about his long-term chances, he's by no means a slam dunk to succeed and he's not worth a top-10 slot on my team. The time spent on my roster, even using just a minor league spot, ends up being wasted.
- Sometimes "can't-miss" players actually miss.
This somewhat ties into the Arrieta example above. We all want to emulate the Rays when rebuilding our keeper league team, but for every Evan Longoria there can also be an Alex Gordon or Andy LaRoche. Mind you, I haven't yet given up on Gordon (or Chris Iannetta, or Travis Snider, to identify three of my favorite "post-hype" prospects). However, the failures so far of these prospects illustrates that the decision to become a rebuilding team shouldn't be taken lightly. If you do go down that path, be prepared for some failures along the way, and be patient while those prospects find their way. The nightmare scenario for you is to give up on a season, see the prospects struggle, give up on those prospects, and then watch those prospects succeed elsewhere. This vicious cycle has helped keep the Pirates where they are, in addition to losing their top players once they become more expensive. Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo and Bautista are just three examples.
The flopped prospects above are all position players, but the track record with pitching prospects is even worse, thanks to their higher attrition rate. Drafting pitching prospects is a necessary evil, but you're better off using a bulk-purchase/agnostic approach in building a young pitching staff rather than trying to pinpoint which pitchers both make it through the ringer and produce immediately upon reaching the majors. Moreover, try to maximize the value of your pitching prospects in trade talks as they emerge. As fantasy players, we don't have the same constraints as professional franchises doing in finding quality arms – we have a finite number of minor league spots on our rosters and can reload much easier.
- Identify your franchise players properly.
The Pirates kept Andy Van Slyke instead of breaking the bank for Barry Bonds. The Royals traded Carlos Beltran but held onto Mike Sweeney (in fact, their 2003 winning season was a bit of a pyrrhic victory, as it prevented Sweeney from becoming a free agent right as his skills took a downward turn). In both cases the situation was more complicated than just deciding who was the better building block, but the ramifications of losing Bonds and Beltran respectively were disastrous. As fantasy players, we are lucky enough to limit our evaluation to the player's performance rather than real life financial constraints for the most part. In some leagues, we have to deal with his roto salary, but even then, the player doesn't have free will – the decision is ours. Anyhow, when rebuilding your franchise, instead of aiming for a well-balanced team, often you're better off overpaying for the elite players in the game and trying to fill in around them. There are exceptions for the deepest of leagues, especially when each team has a large number of keeper slots (i.e. over 50|PERCENT| of your active roster), but err on the side of acquiring one difference-maker rather than two "very good" players.
Turning around a losing fantasy franchise can be a fun challenge, but it comes with significant risks. Arm yourself with the knowledge of these risks and you can prevent that two-to-three year plan from becoming a five-year, or in the case of the Pirates, an 18-year plan.