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The Longest Journey Begins With The First Step: Projections On A Tuesday

So that's what it feels like to win a wager.  I could get used to this.

Philadelphia Phillies -160
Phillies 10, Reds 3

Rationale:  Hamels had dominated the Reds, allowing just 1 run over 23+ innings in winning 3 career home starts against Cincinnati.  And, I believed that the Phillies struggling offense (.179 AVG in their last 10 games) would get a boost, even if only on an emotional level, from Chase Utley being activated from the DL.  Withith Shane Victorino on the 15-day DL, retroactive to May 20th (Grade 1-2 right hamstring strain) I knew they needed the help.  The Phillies had failed to score more than 3 runs in each of its last 9 games.  Meanwhile, the Reds had dropped a season-high 5 straight games, and couldn't be too excited about facing Hamels, who was 6-0 with a 1.07 ERA in 7 career starts against them.  On the flip side, Bronson Arroyo had an awful 8.10 ERA in losing his last 4 starts against Philadelphia.  Cincinnati had lost 8 straight at Citizens Bank Park and Philadelphia had won 7 straight overall against Cincinnati, including shutouts in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Reality:  Hamels improved to 6-2, allowing 3 runs and 5 hits in 6 innings.  Meanwhile, in his worst start since allowing 8 runs in 3 innings against San Diego in April of last season, Arroyo (3-5) allowed 9 runs and 10 hits in 2+ innings.  His ERA jumped from 4.11 to 5.28.  Utley didn't do anything offensively (0 for 5), but I'll take credit for suggesting his return would perk up the rest of the teams' slumping bats.  Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez each hit a HR

SEASON RECORD: 8-11 (42|PERCENT|), - 420

In an attempt to put back-to-back wins together for the first time in weeks, I like the following today:

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 7 +100

Rationale:  I anticipate a tremendous pitcher's duel… The Braves' Jair Jurrjens is 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA, and has not allowed more than 2 ER in any outing this season.  He has lost his last 3 games against the Pirates (none since 2009) despite posting a 3.06 ERA.  The Pirates' Charlie Morton looks to extend a career-best run by winning a fourth consecutive outing.  He is 5-1 with a 2.62 ERA this season. The Pirates have allowed 8 runs in their last 5 games.  The Braves have scored a total of 11 runs in the past 5 games and are riddled with injuries… Jason Heyward was placed on the 15 day DL on Sunday with recurring soreness in his right shoulder.  Former Pirate Nate McLouth left Sunday's games with a strained left oblique and is uncertain to play.  The Under is 6-2-1 for Atlanta in their last 9 games, and 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games.  The Under is 9-4 for Pittsburgh in their last 13 homes games, and 9-3-2 in Charlie Morton's last 14 home starts.  The Under is 34-16-2 in the last 52 meetings between these two teams.