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Fantasy Update: Reality Check

Enough games have been played this season for owners to accurately access how their fantasy team is doing and what they might expect from it the rest of the way.  If you are feeling bad about your own team, take comfort in knowing that I am doing poorly too.

Taking a quick look back over the first two months of the 2011 season in the D.C. Follies League (nine team AL Only, 5x5 auction league which you can follow on RotoWire.com), I find my own team at a crossroad.  Back in March, I felt really good about my chances.  For the most part, I stuck to my draft strategy, with a 70|PERCENT| / 30|PERCENT| hitting-to-pitching spending ratio, spending early on half a dozen or so studs, and then filling out my roster with $1 players (particularly pitchers).

But, as the Robert Burns' poem goes, the best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men gang aft agley.  Translation -- Even the best constructed plans that we make often do not play out as expected.  They (whoever "they" are) say that the first stage of grief is denial, followed by anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.  I'm way past denial and anger, and have entered the bargaining (or, in this case, trading) phase in an effort to fend off the final stages.

Take a look…

Pray For Rain (my team)
Pre-Season Projection: 2nd place, 63 points
Currently: 8th place, 35.5 points
Outlook: With a bit of tweaking, the standings are tight enough that I could move up as high as 3rd place, but it will not be easy

The Good
Mitch Moreland ($1) is hitting .310 with 8 HR, 29 runs, 20 RBI and has even stolen 2 bases.
Robinson Cano ($36) is not hitting for average (.273), but is producing in all other categories (12 HR, 34 runs, 39 RBI, 5 SB).
Alex Rodriguez ($32) is mirroring Cano, hitting .276 with 11 HR, 36 runs, 34 RBI, 3 SB).
Jon Lester ($33) has been solid with 8 wins and 79 K, but his ERA (3.98) and WHIP (1.365) need improvement.

The Bad
Carl Crawford ($38) has only begun to hit recently, and has a dismal .247 average.  His 6 HR, 31 runs, 30 RBI are good, but was expecting better than 8 SB thus far.
Wade Davis ($9) is now on my bench, with 4 wins and 35 K, and ERA of 4.71 and a WHIP of 1.500.
Kevin Gregg ($8) has 12 saves, thanks to a recent surge by the Orioles, with 20 K, a 2.96 ERA, and a 1.562 WHIP.

The Ugly
Joe Mauer ($22) has played a total of nine games this season
Nick Markakis ($27) is hitting only .238 with just 4 HR, 25 runs and 19 RBI.  He does have 4 SB already, compared to only 7 all of last season, but that's not why I wanted him on my team.
Alcides Escobar ($4) hovers around the Mendoza line with a .212 average and no HR.  He has scored 23 runs, has 13 RBI and 7 SB.

Recent Moves:  Traded Jered Weaver ($26) and Sam Fuld ($1) for Jacoby Ellsbury ($29) and Brian Duensing ($1)

Third Degree Birns
Pre-Season Projection: 8th place, 41 points
Currently: 1st place, 80.5 points
Outlook: There is nothing to indicate a letdown is coming, although young arms like Michael Pineda may have an innings limit as the season progresses.  This team is likely to hold on to 1st place.

The Good
The Big Three (Adrian Gonzalez: $36; Miguel Cabrera: $40; Vladimir Guerrero: $18) have all delivered as promised, combining to hit .314 with 30 HR, 108 runs, 125 RBI and even 1 SB.
The Mediocre Five (Denard Span: $18; Johnny Damon: $11; Rajai Davis: $16; Brennan Boesch: $1; Jeff Francoeur: $5) have proven me wrong for labeling them "the weakest outfield in the league", combining to hit .281 with 41 HR, 152 runs, 122 RBI and 39 SB.
Michael Pineda ($1) is a stud, with 6 wins, a 2.33 ERA, 0.996 WHIP and 76 K.
James Shields ($6) has been equally strong, with 5 wins, a 2.85 ERA, 1.067 WHIP and 93 K.

The Bad
Matt Capps ($7) has been inconsistent, and split time early with Joe Nathan.  He does have 8 saves, 2 wins and a WHIP of 0.929, but his 4.50 ERA is awful.

The Ugly
Nothing ugly about this team so far.

Recent Moves:  Not only is this team is first place, but they have acquired some cheap young players, including Mike Moustakas ($1), Brett Lawrie ($1) and Andy Dirks ($1) for the future, or as trade bait later this season.

Austin's Power (last year's runner-up, by only 0.50 points)
Pre-Season Projection: 9th place, 26.5 points
Currently: 7th place, 36.5 points
Outlook:  The projection was spot on for this team, although they should be able to avoid a last place finish.

The Good
Matt Joyce ($1) was claimed off of waivers after being dropped early by another team.  He has been a monster, hitting .338 with 10 HR, 37 runs, 34 RBI and 4 SB.
Michael Brantley ($6) has been solid, with a .295 average, 5 HR, 34 runs, 25 RBI and 8 SB.
Curtis Granderson ($28) has proven he is worth being the highest paid player on this team, hitting .264, but with 18 HR, 48 runs, 43 RBI and 9 SB.
Kyle Farnsworth ($3) has far exceeded expectations with 13 saves, 2 wins, a 1.17 ERA, a 0.696 WHIP and 15 K.

The Bad
Phil Coke ($3) has been awful, with just 1 win, a 4.11 ERA, a 1.351 WHIP and 30 K.
Jake Peavy ($4) has been inconsistent, and oft injured, with 2 wins while posting a 4.66 ERA, but has a solid 0.966 WHIP and 20 K.

The Ugly
Vernon Wells ($16) has been a bust, hitting .176 with 4 HR, 18 runs, 13 RBI and 1 SB.
Chone Figgins ($15) hasn't been any better, hitting .187 with 1 HR, 18 runs, 13 RBI and 7 SB.
John Lackey ($19) has disappointed, with 3 wins, a 7.60 ERA, 1.689 WHIP and only 21 K.

Recent Moves: In addition to Joyce, they signed free-agent Corey Patterson ($2) for some help across multiple categories.

Boys From Brooklyn (the defending champs)
Pre-Season Projection: 4th place, 54.5 points
Currently: 5th place (tie), 47 points
Outlook: If Jose Bautista has even the slightest regression, this could be a long summer for this team.

The Good
Jose Bautista ($27) is proving that last season was no fluke.  He is hitting .345 with 20 HR, 51 runs, 41 RBI and 5 SB.
Erick Aybar ($4) is having a solid year.  The career .274 hitter is hovering around .300 with 3 HR, 23 runs, 21 RBI and 14 SB.
Mariano Rivera ($24) refuses to give in to age, with 16 saves, 1 win, a 1.90 ERA, a 1.056 WHIP and 19 K.

The Bad
Derrek Lee ($9) has been a bust, hitting just .229 with only 3 HR, 20 runs, 15 RBI and 2 SB.
Francisco Liriano ($28), his no-hitter not withstanding, has 3 wins, a 5.20 ERA, a 1.435 WHIP and 41 K.

The Ugly
Manny Ramirez ($11) is all but a distant memory.
Frank Francisco ($8) has not shown much, with 5 saves, 1 win, a 6.06 ERA, a 1.776 WHIP and 17 K.

Recent Moves:  This team may be trading itself out of contention, having given up David Ortiz ($8) and Carlos Quentin ($18) for little in return.

Check Your Shorts
Pre-Season Projection: 3rd place, 60 points
Currently: 4th place, 53 points
Outlook:  They may not have the horses to challenge for 1st place, but they should be a contender all season.

The Good
Paul Konerko ($16) is having an All-Star season, hitting .318 with 15 HR, 30 runs, 49 RBI and 1 SB.
Adrian Beltre ($16) has slowed down after a hot start, but is still batting .260 with 12 HR, 36 runs and 46 RBI.
The duo of Felix Hernandez ($31) and CC Sabathia ($30) have delivered as expected, combining for 13 wins, with an ERA of 3.22, a WHIP of 1.140 and 172 K.
The trio of Bartolo Colon ($3), Doug Fister ($1) and Freddy Garcia ($1) have far exceeded their expectations, combining for 11 wins, an ERA of 3.52, a WHIP of 1.265 and 167 K.

The Bad
Andrew Bailey ($14) has pitched only 4 innings thus far, but will get an opportunity to wrestle the closer role away from Brian Fuentes.

The Ugly
Delmon Young ($13) has done nothing, hitting .233 with 2 HR, 16 runs, 15 RBI and 1 SB.
Carlos Guillen ($3) hasn't come close to seeing anything outside of a trainer's room, and should think about hanging up the cleats for good.

Recent Moves:  Mixed reviews, trading for Jered Weaver ($26) but trading away Josh Hamilton ($32) and Jacoby Ellsbury ($29).

Rajun Cajuns
Pre-Season Projection: 5th place, 51.5 points
Currently: 9th place, 21 points
Outlook:  Doomed on draft day, having already spent $100 on keepers, this team will be hard-pressed to climb out of last place.

The Good
Asdrubal Cabrera ($4) has paid huge dividends by hitting .302 with 12 HR, 40 runs, 42 RBI and 7 SB.
Jose Valverde ($17) has been consistently strong with 16 saves, 2 wins, a 2.89 ERA, a 1.250 WHIP and 28 K.

The Bad
Shin-Soo Choo ($25) has struggled on and off the field, and is hitting only .240 with 5 HR, 26 runs, 22 RBI and 7 SB.
Hideki Matsui ($1) has all but disappeared, batting a horrible .215 with 4 HR, 15 runs, and 22 RBI.
Max Scherzer ($16) has benefited from pitching on a good offensive team to earn 7 wins with 72 K, but has a disappointing ERA of 4.68 and a WHIP of 1.494.

The Ugly
Adam Dunn ($32) looks like he is done, hitting .178 with 6 HR, 19 runs and 25 RBI.
Magglio Ordonez ($3) is done, along with his .172 average, 4 HR, 15 runs and 22 RBI.

Recent Moves:  This team has been fairly quiet in terms of transactions, which has not helped their cause thus far.  The big moves so far, signing Ordonez off of waivers.

Stuffed Shirts
Pre-Season Projection: 7th place, 44 points
Currently: 5th place (tie), 47 points
Outlook:  One of the toughest teams to predict, since they make so many trades their roster is always changing.  Likely to finish in the middle of the pack.

The Good
Russell Martin ($5) has already given more than what was expected for the full season offensively, batting .238 with 9 HR, 24 runs, 27 RBI and 6 SB.
Carlos Quentin ($18) is hitting .270 with 17 HR, 30 runs and 46 RBI.
David Ortiz ($8) is out of control, batting .326 with 15 HR, 38 runs and 36 RBI.
Josh Beckett ($23) has proved he is still the ace of the Red Sox staff, with 5 wins, a 2.06 ERA, a 1.012 WHIP and 73 K.

The Bad
Nick Swisher ($20) has yet to find his rhythm, hitting just .219 with 5 HR, 25 runs, 26 RBI and 1 SB.

The Ugly
Phil Hughes ($3) has been out most of the year, but not before posting a 13.94 ERA and a 2.226 WHIP with 3 K.

Recent Moves:  How much time do you have?  They've traded for Josh Hamilton ($32), Carlos Quentin ($18), David Ortiz ($8) and Jason Kubel ($10), while trading away Justin Morneau ($32), Chris Perez ($3), and yes, Jason Kubel ($10), among others.  Signed Eric Hosmer ($1) and Endy Chavez ($1) as free-agents.

The Farkin' Corksockers
Pre-Season Projection: 1st place, 64 points
Currently: 2nd place, 71.5 points
Outlook:  As good a team as this is, it might not be good enough to take the title.

The Good
Adam Lind ($8) been outstanding, hitting .329 with 11 HR, 25 runs, 37 RBI and a 1 SB.
Sergio Santos ($2) and Jordan Walden ($1) give this team a powerful bullpen for this year, and next, as the two youngsters have combined for 24 saves, 2 wins, a 2.51 ERA, a 1.169 WHIP and 64 K.
Justin Verlander ($32) anchors this team's solid pitching staff (which includes Scott Baker: $3, Trevor Cahill: $1 and Gio Gonzalez: $1) with 7 wins, a 2.89 ERA, a 0.935 WHIP and 93 K.

The Bad
Mark Reynolds ($15) was never going to hit for average, but his .199 mark is horrific.  He does have 27 runs, 32 RBI and 4 SB.
Evan Longoria ($35) has not earned the big draft-day price paid for him in most leagues, missing time to injury and underperforming when healthy.  He is hitting .252 with 4 HR, 17 runs, 13 RBI and 1 SB.

The Ugly
Joakim Soria ($20) was the closer, then he wasn't, and now he is again… maybe.  He has 8 saves, 4 wins, 5.14 ERA, 1.429 WHIP and 21 K.

Recent Moves:  Signed Sergio Santos ($2) as a free-agent.  I can only imagine how this team would be doing if it had not waived Matt Joyce ($1) earlier this season.

West Coast AMO
Pre-Season Projection: 6th place, 46 points
Currently: 3rd place, 58 points
Outlook:  I have to admit my criticism of this team after the draft may have been too harsh, and it appears they will challenge for a finish in the top half of the standings after all.

The Good
Mark Teixeira ($35), traditionally a slow starter, has had a strong season thus far, hitting .253 with 18 HR, 35 runs, 43 RBI and 1 SB.
Jhonny Peralta ($18), who I made fun of at that price back in March, is hitting .313 with 8 HR, 26 runs and 32 RBI.
Chris Perez ($3) has benefited from Cleveland's surprising start to the season with 15 saves, 2 wins, a 2.70 ERA, a 1.329 WHIP and 13 K.

The Bad
Dustin Pedroia ($27) has been a disappointment, hitting just .247 with 4 HR, 31 runs, 22 RBI and 13 SB.
Ichiro Suzuki ($23) has been an even bigger disappointment, hitting just .252 with 0 HR, 30 runs, 20 RBI and 14 SB.
Alex Rios ($30) may be the biggest disappointment of all, hitting just .204 with 4 HR, 31 runs, 14 RBI and 4 SB.

The Ugly
John Danks ($18) has only 1 win with an ERA of 4.75, a WHIP of 1.468 and 52 K.

Recent Moves:  Traded for Chris Perez ($3) in return for Jason Kubel ($10).

So, how will the season play out?  According to the RotoWire software which, admittedly, was only about 50|PERCENT| right with its pre-season projections thus far, the final results will be as follows:

Third Degree Birns

84.0

The Farkin' Corksockers

70.5

Check Your Shorts

59.0

West Coast AMO

55.5

Stuffed Shirts

45.0

Pray For Rain

40.5

Boys From Brooklyn

40.0

Austin's Power

38.5

Rajun Cajuns

17.0

I sure hope the NFL lockout ends soon!