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Round Tripper - Monday 1/26

The Reds pay Devin Mesoraco, Jake McGee has started to play catch again, and Bubba Starling gets an invite to big league camp with the Royals. 

Suffice it to say, Monday has been a slow news day since only two of those three items are actual news.

Let's start with Mesoraco.

It's a four-year, $28 million extension that buys out all three of his arbitration years and one year of free agency. According to FanGraphs, Mesoraco's 2014 season was worth a cool $24.1 million. In an offseason that has been largely disappointing for Reds fans, this should prove to be a nice signing by general manager Walt Jocketty and company. Prior to 2014, Mesoraco failed to hit better than .238 in his previous two big league campaigns, while his OBP was under .300 and his SLG lagged well below the .400 mark.

The breakout came in a year that was otherwise a lost season for the Reds, as he swatted 25 home runs and drove in 80, while boasting a .273/.359/.534 line in 2014.

Compared to other players with catcher eligibility last season (20+ games played in 2013, 2014 stats are displayed, 2015 teams are listed), only Buster Posey ($27) and Jonathan Lucroy ($20) earned more than Mesoraco's $17 behind the plate.

https://i.imgur.com/N2fbe4M.png

If Mesoraco had avoided injury and matched Lucroy's playing time volume, it's reasonable to think that he might have ranked second at the position.

The only issue, is that Mesoraco had a Jon Dowd caliber April, and his numbers included a .468/.509/.787 line (.543 BABIP). If you remove April, Mesoraco's numbers are as follows:

.246/.339/.499, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 44 R, 37:93 BB:K in 387 PA.

Stretched out over a "full" 130-game workload, those counting stats would increase to 28 HR, 86 RBI, 56 R, and a 47:119 BB:K.

Even if he's a finished product as a hitter, Mesoraco appears to be a viable top-five player behind the plate again in 2015, but there's room for further growth if he cut back on his strikeouts (23.4% K%).

It's also worth noting that he showed marked improvement against right-handed pitching last season, and he benefited less from Great American Ballpark than you might think.

  • v. LHP: .291/.418/.506 (4 HR, 17.3% BB%, 17.3% BB%)
  • v. RHP: .269/.342/.541 (21 HR, 25.1% K%, 7.0% BB%)
  • Home: .255/.347/.549 (14 HR)
  • Road: .290/.370/.520 (11 HR)

With 52 more trips to the plate, Mesoraco's projection has equal or lesser totals in his counting stats and an appropriate adjustment to his batting average:

  • .257 AVG, .331 OBP, .463 SLG
  • 22 HR, 75 RBI
  • 54 R, 0 SB

That projection ties Mesoraco for fifth among catchers in projected dollar value for 2015 ($9) with Salvador Perez and Brian McCann. Currently, Mesoraco has an NFBC ADP of 82.34 -- making him the third catcher off the board after Posey (20.14) and Lucroy (68.06), while he's going approximately 15-30 picks ahead of Yan Gomes, McCann, Perez, and Evan Gattis in most drafts.

It's a reasonable price, but one that may be difficult to justify by comparison since Perez and Gattis offer heavier volumes of playing time during the upcoming season.

#RaysSVLeader

Jake McGee is still hoping to return to the Rays in late April or early May, following arthroscopic elbow surgery in December. McGee played catch Monday for the first time since having surgery. The injury is a tough setback for McGee, after he emerged to lock down the closer role in Tampa last season following the implosion of Grant Balfour. Brad Boxberger is my preferred target for those hoping to roster McGee's replacement at the start of the season, but who is your favorite to (at least) temporarily take over the job? The Rays have plenty of options aside from Boxberger, including:

  • Kevin Jepsen
  • Ernesto Frieri
  • Kirby Yates
  • Balfour again?

Factoring in the expected duration of McGee's absence, who do you project as the Rays' saves leader in 2015? Let me know on Twitter with the hashtag #RaysSVLeader.

Bubba Starling

There isn't a nice way to say it. Even though Starling was invited to big league camp by the Royals, he's a very long way from contributing at the big league level. He may be closer to throwing passes on Saturday afternoons, than donning a Royals uniform at this point. If you are still rostering him in a dynasty league, it's time to make a move. Starling fell off of our most recent Top 200 Prospect List.