This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Best College Basketball Bets Today: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Tuesday, March 18
The First Four of the NCAA Tournament gets underway as North Carolina faces off against San Diego State. Additionally, the NIT also tips off with several teams hosting first-round matchups all across the country. With only a handful of games on the board, here are my picks for Tuesday's action.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
Chattanooga at Middle Tennessee 
Despite finishing with the best league record in the Southern Conference, 15-3, Chattanooga now finds itself heading to Murfreesboro, Tennessee, where the Blue Raiders will host a first-round game in the NIT.
In addition to having the best conference record, the Mocs are also the highest-ranked Southern Conference team on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, coming in at No. 110. They won virtually all of their games with their potent offensive attack, one that ranks 58th in adjusted efficiency. They don't get many offensive rebounds, 304th in that category, but that's usually okay because they generally knock down their shots. Chattanooga made almost 58 percent of two-point attempts, the 14th-highest mark among all D-1 teams, and 37 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the 11th-highest effective field goal percentage in the nation. It's also worth noting that it takes a substantial amount of shots from the perimeter, attempting three-pointers at the 53rd-highest rate, making this a particularly dangerous team when it's firing on all cylinders.
Middle Tennessee isn't awful defensively, but it's not great either. It ranks 131st in adjusted defensive efficiency, so there's a clear gap between the Mocs' offense and the Blue Raiders' defense. Even still, the Blue Raiders rank in the top 150 teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. They don't cause many turnovers, though, ranking 250th in that category as they opt to play a more conservative style of defense.
We see a similar discrepancy at the other end of the court, where the teams are significantly weaker. Middle Tennessee's offense, much like its defense, is again close to or slightly above average in many important categories. Specifically, the Blue Raiders rank 128th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 175th in effective field goal percentage, 141st in turnover percentage, 158th in offensive rebounding, and 194th in free-throw attempt rate. On the other hand, Chatanooga's defense ranks below Middle Tennessee's offense in these same categories while at the same time ranking above 250th in all four. The Moc's defense does have one decent trait: it limits opponents to 50 percent on shots inside the arc, which is 139th in the nation. This is valuable in this matchup because Middle Tennessee has one significant issue. Namely, it struggles from beyond the arc, making under 32 percent on the season, 281st in the nation. As such, the Blue Raiders score 52 percent of their total points on two-pointers, so it might have trouble scoring if Chataonnoga's interior defense holds up.
For what it's worth, Chattanooga is 45-29 (.608) in true road games since 2020. It is the most wins (45) across all of NCAA DI over that span. The players on the current roster may not be responsible for all those wins, but they did win 10 of 15 true road games this season, one of 12 D-I teams to win 10-plus.
These two teams are nearly even from an overall efficiency perspective; however, Chattanooga's offense is on another level compared to Middle Tennessee's. The Mocs' defense might eventually be their undoing, but I believe their offensive abilities will help them shoot past Middle Tennessee in the opening round. I'm taking Chattanooga.
College Basketball Best Bet: Chattanooga +2.5
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North Carolina vs. San Diego State 
The Selection Committee drew some online criticism for including North Carolina, the last team in the tournament. I can't say I disagree with the case against them. Regardless, they made the Big Dance, and they have many talented players on their roster despite perhaps underachieving during the regular season.
There's a popular notion this time of year that guard play can make or break a team, and if that's true, then the Tar Heels are in good hands. They still have fifth-year senior RJ Davis, and he's accompanied by sophomore point guard Eliot Cadeau, who led the ACC in assist rate during the conference season.
Given the talented backcourt, it's no surprise that North Carolina has the 22nd-highest offensive efficiency. It's a careful group, ranking 41st in offensive turnover percentage. It also takes high-percentage shots, making 55 percent of two-point attempts and over 35 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the 52nd-highest effective field goal percentage. It's also worth noting that the Tar Heels are excellent at drawing contact, ranking 125th in free-throw attempt rate. San Diego State's defense is elite, just like it always is; however, it has one crack in its armor: its tendency to foul. The Aztecs rank 289th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, and the Tar Heels made 74 percent from the charity stripe, so this is clearly an area of concern for San Diego State.
The Aztecs' defense needs to play well because its offense is nowhere close to its defensive standings. San Diego State ranks 111th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and that's the good news. In other vital areas, the Aztecs were average or below average, ranking outside the top 150 teams in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. In contrast, North Carolina's defense has the 53rd-best adjusted defensive rating and ranks in the top 120 teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. San Diego State's other issue is its lack of a reliable perimeter attack, making under 33 percent of three-point attempts for the whole season (228th). It's actually shot worse over the past couple of months, making just 31 percent against Mountain West opponents, the second-worst in the league.
While we're at it, here's one more data point to consider. On March 17, KenPom shared his 2025 NCAA tournament probabilities after running the tournament one million times. Based on his data, North Carolina has a 25 percent chance of advancing to the second round, with San Diego State advancing in just 15 percent of the simulations.
One can debate which teams deserved to make the cut, but regardless, North Carolina appears to be the superior team in this matchup, primarily thanks to its potent offensive attack. I'm not sure how far they'll advance, but I like their odds in this matchup. I'm taking North Carolina.
Additionally, I'm also taking the over. North Carolina loves to push the pace as much as possible, clocking the 34th-fastest adjusted tempo. And when the Tar Heels do lose, it's typically because of a defensive letdown. The game total reached at least 143 points in 11 of its 13 losses. I'm not counting on a loss, but the good news is we naturally see a higher point total in their wins, too. The game total reached at least 143 points in 16 of 22 victories. I'm betting we'll add one more to this total on Tuesday.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina -4.5 and Over 142.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Chattanooga +2.5
- North Carolina -4.5
- North Carolina vs. San Diego State - Over 142.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
