This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a special TGIF edition of Friday's college hoops slate, with some high-profile Big Ten and Big East battles on the board. Riding a three-day streak with profitable picks, I present my predictions for three games on Friday evening.
Villanova 
vs. Marquette 
This pick is all about Villanova's defensive ability, or rather, a lack of one.
The Wildcats have stayed afloat thanks to an explosive offensive attack, ranking 12th in efficiency among all D-1 teams, but if they sink, the sole reason will be their inability to get stops. Villanova ranks 182nd in defensive efficiency, easily the lowest standing for any Big East team. In their last game, they lost at home to Georgetown, a team with the second-worst offensive efficiency rating in the Big East. Villanova ranks below league average in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, and free-throw attempts allowed, thoroughly unimpressive.
The Golden Eagles are also among the best at scoring points in the Big East. Marquette ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency among all D-1 teams, and it's played just as well against conference opponents, ranking third. The key to its offensive success has been its ball handling and shot selection. Marquette has the second-best offensive turnover percentage in the nation and has made over 55 percent of two-pointer attempts, the 67th-best mark.
Speaking of turnovers, the Golden Eagles also dominate this category at the other end of the court. Marquette is among the most aggressive and effective defensive teams, sporting the highest steal percentage among all 364 teams and the sixth-best turnover percentage. This elite skill has played just as well against conference foes, as the Golden Eagles top the league in both categories when playing against Big East teams. Given this impressive talent, it's no surprise to see that Marquette has the 13th-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation. This is an important strength because it effectively cancels out Villanova's one saving grace: its offense. The other important note regarding Marquette's defense is that it's exceptionally effective on the perimeter. The Golden Eagles have held conference opponents to under 30 percent from beyond the arc, the second-best mark in the Big East. As it turns out, Villanova lives and dies by the three-pointer, with this shot accounting for almost 40 percent of its total points, the 17th-highest percentage among all D-1 teams.
Overall, this appears to be a terrible matchup for Villanova. Not only does it have to guard a strong offensive team, but it also has to face an elite defense that puts pressure on the perimeter. It's possible the Wildcats will catch fire and keep the game close, but I'm betting the better and more balanced team will pull away by the end of the second half. I'm laying the points with Marquette.
College Basketball Best Bet: Marquette -9.5
Michigan 
vs. Purdue 
The Wolverines are coming off back-to-back overtime games, losing at Minnesota before winning against Northwestern. The latter is a nice win, but the former is certainly a blemish on an otherwise great resume.
The Boilermakers, meanwhile, had their seven-game winning streak snapped when Ohio State pulled off an improbable win. Purdue had a 13-point halftime lead and, according to KenPom, had a 90 percent chance of winning the game with six minutes remaining.
When Michigan has the ball, its potent offense is impeded by just one issue: giving the ball away. Among all D-1 teams, the Wolverines rank 14th in offensive efficiency and third in effective field goal percentage, but they also rank near the bottom in giving the ball away, 322nd to be exact. The problem is made worse by the fact that these are often unforced errors, as they rank 354th in non-steal offensive turnovers. Even still, forced or not forced, this is exactly what Purdue loves to see on the scouting report. Michigan has the second-worst turnover percentage during conference play among Big Ten teams, making this a persistent problem that hasn't improved.
The Boilermakers have played well on defense for much of the year, and this hasn't changed during conference play. Purdue has the second-best defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten, and it excels in one critical area that will come into play on Friday. Namely, the Boilermakers have the highest defensive turnover percentage in the league and the third-highest steal percentage, making them a nightmare matchup for any team that isn't careful with the ball. Purdue is also among the best in the conference in other areas, sporting the second-best defensive rebounding percentage and fourth-best free-throw attempt rate allowed.
At the other end of the court, we again have a similar theme. Michigan's defense hasn't been bad, posting the sixth-best efficiency rating in the Big Ten during conference play, although it seemingly plays a conservative style, ranking last in defensive turnovers. At the same time, Purdue ranks fifth in offensive turnovers and second in non-steal turnovers, giving us a good bet that it will win the turnover margin on Friday. This category aside, the Boilermakers have scored points as well as any other team. They have the 11th-best offensive efficiency rating in the nation and rank 20th in effective field goal percentage. This team is tough to hold down any way you look at it.
While this matchup appears tight, I like Purdue's odds of winning by a couple of possessions. The Boilermakers have a favorable defensive matchup given the Wolverines' sloppy offensive style, and the home team has proven many times it can put up plenty of points on strong defensive teams. I'm laying the points with the Boilermakers
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -4
Penn State 
vs. Iowa 
These two teams are reeling. The Nittany Lions got back into the win column in their last game, snapping a four-game losing streak, but it's still not in good shape. The victory against Rutgers was much needed, but Penn State's conference record (3-5) is indicative of its overall stats. During league play, among Big Ten teams, the Nittany Lions rank 12th in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency. More egregiously, they have the worst defensive rebounding percentage and are second-worst in offensive rebounding. Their best skill defensively is causing turnovers, ranking second in the Big Ten and first in defensive steals, but this might not mean as much in Friday's game. As it turns out, the host team is exceptional at protecting the ball. Iowa ranks first in the Big Ten in offensive turnover percentage, so Penn State might not generate as many giveaways as usual.
The Hawkeyes, in contrast, are still in a draught, enduring a three-game skid. They successfully defended their home court against Northwestern, Nebraska, and Indiana but recently lost to Minnesota. Not a good result, to say the least. Iowa is one of the more extreme teams in the nation, incredibly effective at scoring points but terribly ineffective at getting stops. Among all D-1 teams, it ranks 19th in offensive efficiency but 156th in defense. The latter is obviously a major issue, a fatal flaw if you will, but I believe it might not be so fatal on Friday. The one thing the Hawkeyes do well on defense is cause chaos, ranking fifth in turnovers in the Big Ten during league play. This is noticeably higher than Penn State's standing offensively, sitting at 10th in the league in turnovers. The steal category has a similar difference, with Iowa ranking eighth in the league in defensive steals and Penn State recording the third-worst offensive steal percentage.
All in all, this is a good matchup for the Hawkeyes, if there is one. They likely won't give up the ball as much as other opponents that have played Penn State, and Iowa's defense might be able to cause some havoc on its side of the court. Sometimes, it's tough to bet on a team on a losing streak, but in this case, all signs indicate that Iowa has a good chance of ending its skid. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Iowa -2.5
Best College Basketball Bets Today
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Marquette -9.5
- Purdue -4
- Iowa -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
