NCAA Championship Preview: Wisconsin vs. Duke

WISCONSIN vs. DUKE

Matchup: Arguably the two best players in college basketball face off in the Championship Game, when likely top NBA pick Jahlil Okafor and AP Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky go toe-to-toe. Both have had a ton of help, though, and while the matchup between these two giants will get a lot of fanfare, it may be the contributions of teammates that determines who comes away with this year's crown. Okafor and guards Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook have been steady presences, but it has been the arrival of Justise Winslow that has taken the Blue Devils to the championship game. For Wisconsin, forwards Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes have complemented Kaminsky's dominance as the Badgers won the Big Ten regular season and tournament championships. For the second straight game, it will be the Badgers' experience versus their opponent's youth.

The Badgers and Blue Devils met in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge on Dec. 3. Duke dealt Wisconsin its first loss of the season by hitting an obnoxious 7-of-12 (58.3 percent) three-pointers. Jones led Duke with 22 points and Okafor had 13 points and six rebounds in the win at the Kohl Center. Wisconsin received below-average performances from Dekker, who was dealing with an early season ankle injury, and Nigel Hayes, who shot 1 of 5 -- they combined for nine points. Traveon Jackson led the Badgers with a season-high 25 points but has become a part of a three-guard rotation with Josh Gasser and Bronson Koenig.

No. 1 Wisconsin Badgers

Strength: Forwards. The Badgers have one of the nation's most talented and diverse three-man frontcourts. Kaminsky is clearly the star. In the five NCAA Tournament wins, the senior has averaged 22.2 points and 8.8 rebounds, which are notches above his seasonal averages of 18.7 points and 8.0 rebounds. He put up a combined 49 points against Arizona and Kentucky, so it is unlikely that Duke will slow him in the second meeting. As good as Kaminsky has been, Dekker has not been far behind. The 6-foot-9 junior has scored at least 20 points in three of the five Tournament games and has hit 61.3 percent of his field goals. Hayes has been somewhat quieter, but his new-found ability to hit three-pointers gives the Badgers the ability to really stretch the floor.

Weakness: Depth. Like most college basketball teams, the Badgers lean heavily on their stars. Wisconsin has scored at least 72 points in each Tournament win. Dekker and Kaminsky have accounted for nearly half of the points. If either, or both, gets in foul trouble, the Badgers will be sunk. Fortunately, that rarely happens. It is also worth noting that the team can't be sure what it will get from Jackson, who will be playing in just his fourth game since returning from a broken foot. Jimmy's son clearly had his shot flowing in the first game against Duke, but he has not played more than 12 minutes in the last three wins.

Intangibles: Wisconsin is the best team in the nation at holding onto the ball and not fouling. Because of the ability to stay away from whistles, the depth weakness should not be an issue. Kaminsky has only been whistled for four fouls once (in the Elite Eight win over Arizona) and Dekker has only been called for three fouls in three games (and none since March 5). The Badgers guards simply do not turn the ball over, which limits opponents' transition baskets. Duke has some awesome weapons in the halfcourt, but the Blue Devils enjoy an easy basket. There will be no easy baskets against the Badgers on Monday.

Wisconsin Will Win If: it can control Okafor in the paint. The same could be said prior to the Final Four win over Kentucky because Karl-Anthony Towns looked like such an interior bully against Notre Dame. Towns went for 16 points against the Badgers, but he only took 11 shots and was hardly automatic from the field. Kaminsky did a passable job on Towns and will have to do the same against the even bigger Okafor. The presumed No. 1 pick was not dominant in Madison in December, but he will need to be checked for the Badgers to come out victorious.

Prediction: The Badgers slayed their dragon when they knocked off the unbeaten Wildcats, but it won't take coach Bo Ryan long to get the players back on task. In the earlier meeting, Duke simply looked like it had much more talent than Wisconsin and the game was only moderately contested by the Badgers. On talent, Duke should win, but then again, Kentucky had more talent than Wisconsin. The Badgers will continue to do what they do: limit turnovers and fouls, hit three-pointers, and give Wisconsin its first national championship since 1941.

-- Perry Missner


No. 1 Duke Blue Devils

Strength: Scoring and offensive efficiency. The Blue Devils are fourth in the nation in scoring at 80.6 points per game, third in shooting percentage, hitting an impressive 50.2 percent from the field. Duke shot 52 percent against Michigan State in the 81-61 semifinal romp over the Spartans. Duke is also in the top 25 in the nation in assists, and point guard Jones has been superb at getting his teammates involved throughout the Big Dance. The Blue Devils are also incredibly savvy in drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line. The Badgers have always been a standout defensive team under coach Bo Ryan, but they have not quite seen an offensive juggernaut like this Duke squad, which can beat you on the offensive end in a variety of ways.

Weakness: Height. Although this might seem like a an odd weakness when you have 7-0 center Okafor on the squad, the rest of Duke's starters are no taller than 6-6. The Badgers, meanwhile, not only have the 7-0 Kaminsky, but also Dekker at 6-9 and Hayes at 6-7. Duke was outrebounded by a bigger Gonzaga squad in the Elite Eight, and even lost the battle of the boards in the Sweet 16 to Utah. The Blue Devils obviously made up for the rebounding woes by picking up the slack in other areas (most notably defense and three-pont shooting), but Duke is going to have its hands full against the taller Badgers, and could be prone to yielding second-chance opportunities to Wisconsin, which could ultimately prove deadly. The Badgers outrebounded the dominant Kentucky Wildcats by 12 in the semifinals. The clash of Winslow vs. Dekker should be extremely entertaining, though expect reserve forward Amile Jefferson to see more minutes than usual due to the height disadvantage.

Intangibles: Free throws. The Blue Devils have been superior at the foul line this season, in terms of both opportunities and converting free throws. Against Michigan State, the Blue Devils shot a staggering 37 free throws. In the Elite Eight matchup with Gonzaga, Duke shot 84.2 percent from the line. In the Sweet 16 against Utah, Duke shot 26 free throws, hitting 20. Scoring in this manner achieves a variety of goals; it eventually puts the other team in foul trouble, it allows the Blue Devils to score without time coming off the clock and allows the Duke defense to get set following the shots. Wisconsin is also exceptional at getting to the charity stripe, so this game could come down to which team gets to the line the most and hits their freebies.

Duke Will Win If: Okafor wins the battle with Kaminsky. Few teams have had an answer for either player defensively, but this matchup could be unique in that the Badgers, unlike most teams, might not double-team Okafor. That's because Kaminsky has the size, strength and agility to deal with Okafor on his own. That said, Okafor has a clever, polished, well-rounded post game, and the goal will be not only to win the 1-on-1 matchup by scoring, but also by attempting to get Kaminsky in foul trouble. Kaminsky can't beat you if he's sitting on the bench. As a result, Okafor's job will be to take advantage of the 1-of-1 matchup on the offensive end, and stay out of foul trouble on the defensive end. Hardly anybody has been able to outplay Frank the Tank this season, but the Blue Devils will have a great chance at taking down the Badgers if Okafor can do just that.

Prediction: The Badgers appear to be on a mission, and not even the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats could stop them. The Blue Devils certainly don't have the size or athleticism of the Wildcats, but Duke thrives with offensive efficiency, including the ability to score from the foul line. Coach K will almost certainly add a few wrinkles to his gameplan after watching Wisconsin's film from the last few games. The interior play of Kaminsky makes it tough to also guard the three-point line; the Badgers have been incredibly potent from long distance recently. Over the last two games, Wisconsin has shot 19-for-35 (54.3-percent) from three-point range. A point of emphasis, as in previous games for the Blue Devils, will be hounding perimeter defense, which Winslow, Jones and Quinn Cook can certainly provide. It's tough to bet against the streaking Badgers, though, particularly after they halted perfection.

-- Jesse Siegel