This article is part of our CFL Picks series.
The CFL serves up a rare three-game slate in Week 15, and two of those matchups have upset possibilities. We'll dive into a case for each one while also highlighting one player for which conditions may be ripe for a breakout performance.
Toronto Argonauts at B.C. Lions- Friday, 10:00 p.m ET
The Argonauts have surprisingly gone 1-2 since Chad Kelly's Week 12 season debut against the Roughriders. However, one of those losses came by just three points, and Kelly has largely accomplished the difficult task of flashing midseason form right from his first game.
Kelly has thrown for between 322 and 463 yards in each contest, tossing four touchdowns and recording another score on the ground in that span. Kelly did have a turnover issue in a 41-27 Week 14 loss to the Redblacks, throwing four interceptions, including two pick-sixes. Nevertheless, the Mississippi product compiled 4,100 yards and a 23:12 TD:INT in 2023, numbers that corroborate his ability to typically limit mistakes.
Kelly has the offensive weapons to run an ideally balanced attack – running back Ka'Deem Carey excels as both runner and receiver, while the likes of Damonte Coxie, David Ungerer III and Makai Polk serve as high-upside pass-catching options. Toronto's defense has also excelled against the run while limiting opponents to 76.4 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry, both qualifying as the CFL's second-lowest figures.
In Nathan Rourke, the Lions have their own capable young mobile pivot who recently made his season debut. Given Rourke's passing prowess and his own impressive air attack, he could certainly be in position to hit some plays against an Argos defense yielding 296.5 passing yards per game and an elevated 71.5 percent completion rate.
Yet, Toronto has a better all-around defensive matchup, as the Lions have surrendered a league-high 272 first downs and the fourth-most yards of net offence per game (361.5). B.C. has also been appreciably more generous against the run, giving up 92.5 rushing yards per contest.
Carey is certainly capable of exploiting such a vulnerability and keeping the defense honest, allowing Kelly a better chance at finding his fleet-footed targets downfield against a secondary that's the primary culprit behind the Lions allowing 289.2 passing yards per game and a CFL-high 108.3 passer efficiency rating.
This has the makings of a high-scoring game given the offensive talent on either side, but Kelly has the weaponry and better all-around matchup to potentially author an upset.
Ottawa Redblacks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats- Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
The Redblacks have surprised by garnering an 8-3-1 mark through their first 12 games. A key factor in their success has been the stellar play of quarterback Dru Brown, who's embraced the opportunity presented by his first full-time starting opportunity to throw for 2,881 yards and post an 11:5 TD:INT over 11 games.
In contrast, the Tiger-Cats are saddled with a 3-9 record, but that mark at least somewhat belies the competitiveness Hamilton has shown in a few of its losses. Four of Scott Milanovich's squad's defeats have been by single digits, while a fifth was by 10 points. Veteran signal-caller Bo Levi Mitchell, despite a brief demotion that was quickly short-circuited by a head injury to would-be replacement Taylor Powell, is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career.
Mitchell has thrown for 3,383 yards, while his 21 touchdown passes are his most since the 2018 season. And, while he's also been guilty of 12 picks, he's gone the last two games without an interception. Mitchell also had one of his best games of the season against the Redblacks in a narrow 24-22 loss in Week 4, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 322 yards and two touchdowns in what was another interception-less performance.
Then, the Ti-Cats' backfield has enough depth that Milanovich had the luxury of benching the talented James Butler for Greg Bell after Week 10, a move that's proven very prudent. Bell has responded to his elevation by averaging over 7.0 yards per carry in two of his first four games and logging between four and seven catches in three of those contests.
The pass-catching threat of Bell – not to mention the ones posed by receivers like the explosive Tim White, Shemar Bridges and Steven Dunbar – and Mitchell's savvy lends credence to the notion of the Ti-Cats finding success through the air against a Redblacks defense that's surrendered 283.1 passing yards per game, a 67.5 percent completion rate and the fourth-most completions of 30+ yards (19).
A host of other factors -- the fact Hamilton is coming off a bye week, that two of its three victories have come at home while Ottawa is 2-3 on the road, and the Redblacks' very narrow +4-point differential on the season -- also help me back a possible upset.
Week 15 Player To Pop
Tim White, Tiger-Cats: As just alluded to, the weakness of the Redblacks' defense has been its back end, and Ottawa has been particularly susceptible to allowing chunk plays through the air. White comes into this Week 15 matchup surging, having compiled a 13-314-2 receiving line on 19 targets over the last two games.
White undeniably has Mitchell's trust, and both he and his quarterback are refreshed coming off the bye week. The Tiger-Cats will need to be aggressive to ensure they can keep up with Brown and his own talented cast of skill-position teammates, furthering the chances of White, who already recorded eight receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown in his one prior meeting with Ottawa, excelling for a third straight contest.
