This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Big Ten Championship Game
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Undefeated No. 1 Oregon looks to cement themselves as the top seen in the upcoming playoffs with a conference title over 11-1 Penn State Sunday night. Oregon comes in only 6-6 ATS, but it's worth noting they've been favored by at least 13.5 points 11 times, rendering that trend meaningless. The over has hit in half of the Ducks 12 games with no discernable recent trend. Penn State is also 6-6 ATS, and while the under has hit in seven of their 12 outings, it's the over that's cashed in each of their last three.
Penn State vs. Oregon Betting Odds for Championship Week
Spread: Oregon -3.5 (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook); Penn State +3.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Total: Over 50.5 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook); Under 50.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Oregon -160 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Penn State +152 (Caesars Sportsbook)
When this spread opened, I was shocked at how low it was and expected heavy movement upward in favor of the Ducks. Not only has that not happened, but the odds are slightly juiced towards Penn State. As of Thursday evening, that's all I can say here.
The total has had more fluctuation, opeing at 51.5 and immediately moving downward in early betting. But it does appear to be ticking back up, and there's a reasonable disparity currently across books.
Oddly, despite the lack of line movement, the moneyline odds have moved. Oregon opened at (-148) and it's been a steady rise, perhaps some seeing that opening number as good enough for a return on investment. Penn State, meanwhile, has gone from (+124) to at least (+150) at most books. The narrative is very clear; bettors think Oregon wins, but Penn State is competitive.
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Penn State vs. Oregon Betting Picks for Championship Week
No elongated lead is necessary in this heavyweight matchup. For Penn State, it's going to come down to their ability to run the ball. They played three conference games decided by one possession, beating USC by three, Minnesota by one and losing to Ohio State by seven. They didn't rush for more than 120 yards in any of those games, averaging under 4.0 ypc in each. They were held under 173 yards only once in their multi-score wins. Oregon is allowing 3.6 ypc, with only Boise State, Purdue and Ohio State rushing for more than 132 yards against them. Is it reasonable to expect Penn State's duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen to put up combined numbers similar to Ashton Jeanty? I'd have to argue yes.
The Nittany Lions are equally stout against the run, but guess what, in those three close games mentioned above, they allowed 189 yards and 6.9 ypc to USC, 176 and 4.4 ypc to Ohio State and 106 yards to Minnesota. Only one other team reached 100 yards against them. Oregon has been more successful in passing, and I don't love QB Dillon Gabriel as much as others, but he doesn't make mistakes. They can find some success rushing and allow him some misdirection and play action deep shots.
Ultimately, this line didn't pass the sniff test, and I'm sticking with that initial reaction. Oregon has given up more than 206 yards passing just once all year and has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. Drew Allar hasn't shown he's capable of winning on his own, nor has James Franklin proven he can win a game when it matters.
Penn State vs. Oregon Expert Pick: Oregon -3.5 (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Penn State vs. Oregon Predictions for Championship Week
This is big boy, smash-mouth football, where whoever wins the rushing attack should emerge victorious. Or whoever stops the opposing rushing attack. And with Oregon likely having more weapons and more creative play calling, I back them to find the needed balance to prevail.
I would not be at all surprised to see Penn State jump out to an early lead with a shot play. But I would be surprised to see them keep attacking rather than go into a bit of a shell and play not to lose. And that's not going to be good enough. Oregon will remain patient with Jordan James being heavily featured and wait their turn to take shots in single coverage to Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden downfield, with Evan Steward making plays over the middle.
Oregon 27-23
