College Football Picks: Week 5 Recap and Best Bets for Week 6

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Published on October 3, 2023

College Football Week 5 Betting Roundup

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The reigning national champion and No.1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs trailed in the third quarter to the unranked Auburn Tigers and managed to escape with a 27-20 win but failed to cover the spread as 14-point favorites. The win was the first one on the road and the second game in which they were tied or trailed at the half, raising concerns about the validity of their No.1 ranking.

This season is turning into one of the most exciting and entertaining in recent memory. There are many teams currently that are not long shots to upset any of the Top-5 teams in the rankings. Each year, the final AP poll has at least 10 teams that were not ranked in the preseason poll. Entering week 6, the upsets are going to start happening, so let's examine some of the underdogs on this week's card that I will be taking to the window.

Underdogs were not barking very loudly in Week 5, going 9-47 straight-up (SU), 23-30-3 against-the-spread (ATS), and a solid 37-19 Over record, good for 66% winning bets. For the season, underdogs have produced a 64-347-1 SU record for 16% upset wins, 200-201-11 ATS record for 50%, and a 209-197-6 Over record for 52%. So, the market overall has priced the dogs quite well this season.

College Football Betting Tools

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College Football Betting Algorithm

The following betting algorithm uses the money line and has earned a highly profitable 84-65 record for 56% winning bets that have averaged a +153 wager spanning the last 10 seasons. The requirements are:

1. Bet on road teams.

2. That road team is coming off a game in which they allowed three or fewer first-half points.

3. That road team is facing a foe coming off a win by six or fewer points.

Taking a deeper look into the database, we discover a subset that has gone 7-13 SU (35%) and a highly profitable 17-3 ATS for 85% winning bets over the past 10 seasons if our road warrior is a double-digit underdog and facing a conference opponent. This betting algorithm targets Maryland, getting 19.5 points as a strong betting opportunity when they take to the road to travel to Columbus, Ohio, to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes.

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College Football Live Betting Strategy

The average score of these 20 games was a 32 to 28 home win, with the first quarter seeing both teams averaging 7.5 points. So, look for Ohio State to score first with a touchdown and then look to get Maryland at +22.5 or more points. The most important requirement for live in-game betting is to have a solid plan in place prior to the start of the game. So, if I am betting $100 on Maryland, I will bet $50 preflop (before the game starts) and then look to add $50 more on Maryland at +22.5 points during the first half of action only.

College Football Expert Picks For Week 6

Double-digit underdogs to monitor in Week 6 based on model

The big dogs are the place to put your money again this season, as they have gone just 6-176-1 for 3.3% upset wins but have produced a money-making 101-79-3 ATS mark for 56% winning bets. The six upset wins all occurred on the road, earning an 89-68-3 ATS record for 57% winning bets. Here are the following matchups featuring a road underdog of 17.5 or more points and facing a ranked foe in week 6 action.

1. Maryland +19.5 at No. 4 Ohio State

2. Virginia Tech +24 at No.5 Florida State

3. Georgia Tech +21 at No. 17 Miami (FLA)

4. Arizona +21.5 at No. 9 USC

College Football Best Bet for Week 6: Kentucky +14.5 and Over 48 Kentucky-Georgia

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No. 20 Kentucky vs No.1 Georgia

Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA

Georgia -14.5 | Total: 48 points offered at DraftKings

7:00 PM EST | ESPN

I am ending this article with the same theme that started it for the Week 6 card. Kentucky is on my upset alert radar, and I do think they have a chance to pull off the unthinkable upset in Athens on Saturday night. Kentucky is 5-0 and is coming off one of their most impressive wins in years when they dominated No. 22 Florida by the final score of 33-14 in a game they never trailed.

Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary needed to complete just nine of his 19 pass attempts and one touchdown. The Kentucky ground attack was impressive, led by Ray Davis, who gained 280 yards on 26 carries and three touchdowns. Overall, Kentucky gained 329 rushing yards, averaging 9.1 yards per carry, and this ground attack is expected to cause major problems for the Georgia defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Kentucky defense has not allowed an opponent to gain more than 100 rushing yards. They held Florida to just 69 rushing yards on 29 carries and Vanderbilt to 97 yards on 27 carries in their last two games. The Georgia offense starts with the ground attack and then uses play action to jumpstart the passing attack. Without the ground attack, Carson Beck will be forced to make throws to Brock Bowers (30 catches), Dominic Lovett (20 catches), and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint in much tighter spaces than he is accustomed to.

Supporting Kentucky is the following betting system that has produced an 18-7 ATS record over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:

1. Bet on a road team that is gaining at least 4.9 yards per rush.

2. That team's defense allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.

3. The foe is gaining 4.25 to 4.75 yards per rush.

4. Our road warrior is a double-digit underdog