This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Duke's Mayo Bowl Picks: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech
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P.J. Fleck may have mayonnaise poured on his head. Sure, that is also true of Brent Pry, but that visual has less oomph to it. The non-playoff games are almost done (though shout out to the Bahamas Bowl), but this is not a bad offering by any means. Minnesota and Virginia Tech are solid teams primed to meet in the Duke's Mayo Bowl. Before the mayonnaise is poured, here's some insight on the betting landscape for Friday's bowl matchup.
Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech Betting Odds
Spread: Minnesota -9.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Virginia Tech +10 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 42.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 43.0 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Minnesota -380 (ESPN Bet), Virginia Tech +340 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Golden Gophers are heavy favorites. That's even though the two teams did not have a great disparity between them during the regular season. You can maybe glean what's going on there. This is bowl season, after all.
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Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech Betting Picks
Though the Hokies went 6-6 this season, they rank 24th in SP+. Five of their losses were by a touchdown or less, and its biggest loss was by 10 points to ACC champ Clemson. The issue here is that "shorthanded" may be an understatement. Virginia Tech's top two receivers are both out. However, the team's two offensive standouts, quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten, are both doubtful or out. The latter is because of the likelihood of an opt-out, but the former is about injury. Wait, there's more! Backup quarterback Collin Schlee and backup running back Malachi Thomas are both questionable.
Minnesota is expecting to have more of the important pieces from a team that went 7-5. Though the Gophers went 7-5, they are actually 33rd in SP+, bolstered by a defense that ranks 13th. This is a team that beat Illinois and lost to Michigan and Penn State by a total of four points. Plus, in the "armchair psychology" space of assessing bowl games, Fleck and the kind of player who signs up to play for Fleck feel likely to be amped for this one, which is not always a given during bowl season.
On the other hand, 8.5 points is kind of a lot of points! We've definitely seen some bowl games that were blowouts, but there have been quite a few close contests. However, the Hokies might be down to their third-string quarterback throwing to depth receivers and a third-string back toting the ball. Of course, Michigan was quite shorthanded, and it beat Alabama.
I'm a bit concerned about Minnesota's ability to win comfortably, so that leads me to look toward the over/under. Virginia Tech will be shorthanded, and Minnesota's defense ranks 13th in SP+. This will likely be a game where at least one team, and maybe both teams, finishes with under 20 points.
Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech Best Bet: Under 43.0 points (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech Betting Predictions
We've yet, to the best of my knowledge, had a player unexpectedly play in a bowl game. Oh, we've had guys who surprisingly sat out (in Cam Ward's case, in the middle of the contest), but not the alternative. Thus, I fully expect the Hokies to at least not have Drones and Tuten, along with the receivers who have declared themselves out. If Minnesota's defense is locked in, that is going to make it very hard on Virginia Tech.
I do think the Golden Gophers will win, but this is a mediocre offense. Winning by a wide margin might be beyond the capacity of this team. They did beat Wisconsin 24-7 in the regular-season finale, though. A result like that feels plausible, though something more in the 20-14 range might be more in line with how things play out. Ultimately, in what might be a low-scoring affair, at least we have the promise of a guy getting mayonnaise dumped on him Friday night.
