2015 Breakout Players: Identifying this Year's Stars

Identifying breakout players is a humbling endeavor. Every season breeds new levels of unpredictability and surprises that help lead fantasy teams to victory. In 2013, two relatively bottom-of-the-barrel ADP Denver Broncos -- Knowshon Moreno and Julius Thomas -- benefited from playing with Peyton Manning during his record-breaking season, propelling many of their fantasy owners to championships. Josh Gordon, whose ADP was outside the top 80, finished 2013 as the top-ranked wide receiver.

Last season, it was Odell Beckham Jr. who took the league by storm. Despite being a first-round pick, Beckham was mostly an afterthought during fantasy draft season because of a hamstring injury. But he finished as one of five rookies among the top-25 fantasy wide receivers last year, joining Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews and Sammy Watkins. The immediate impact of the 2014 wide receiver rookie class has portended similar, and most likely inflated, expectations for this year's rookies, a trend already evident in early ADP lists.

This time last year, we attempted to quantify next-level breakouts based on factors beyond opportunity, including pedigree and skills. Some of those players busted, like Toby Gerhart and Justin Hunter, but the exercise also led us to Emmanuel Sanders and DeAndre Hopkins, among others.

But quantifying breakouts based on historical markers is less predictive than in worlds like fantasy baseball. The most obvious choices are usually well documented and fully priced by draft season, and breakouts still don't always come to fruition for those players.

Although both pedigree and skills are important variables, last season's out-of-nowhere draft values once again remind us of the power of opportunity. Opportunity is not the be-all, end-all, but it is the crossroads at which talent, preparation and luck meet. C.J. Anderson and Justin Forsett can both testify to that.

Team context goes hand in hand with talent and opportunity. A new offensive coordinator, a new scheme or new and more-talented teammates can help catapult a player to the next level.

A glance at depth charts and early ADP rankings for this season shows breakout potential already priced in for players like the 49ers' Carlos Hyde. The second-year running back is fully priced as a top-30 overall fantasy pick in early drafts, driven by pedigree (second-round draft pick), opportunity (no more Frank Gore) and team context (historically RB-centric).

Looking beyond the obvious and most hyped, let's use talent, opportunity and team context to unearth hidden gems for this season.

QUARTERBACK

Derek Carr, Raiders

Carr fared well as a rookie last year despite a league-low 5.5 yards per attempt. He passed for 3,270 yards and had a 21:12 TD:INT ratio, not bad for a first-year quarterback. He is athletic, with quick feet, and showed promise with accuracy in the short passing game (65.7 percent). The Raiders used the draft to build around him, selecting offensive players with three of their first four picks, including the draft's top wide receiver, Amari Cooper. The Raiders also signed veteran receiver Michael Crabtree, who should help with the short-to-intermediate passing game, and made up-and-comer Rodney Hudson the league's highest-paid center. Promising running back Latavius Murray, who did not get regular carries until December last season, should force defenses to respect the run game, allowing Carr more time in the pocket. Carr should also benefit from the addition of offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, who plans to implement some of the up-tempo concepts he employed last year as quarterbacks coach for the Eagles. With a strong work ethic, more experience and talented weapons around him, Carr should develop into a top-15 QB, possibly as soon as this season.

Full-Priced:
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins

RUNNING BACK

Joseph Randle, Cowboys

The departure of DeMarco Murray to Philadelphia leaves a gaping hole at running back for the Cowboys. Free-agent addition Darren McFadden doesn't figure to be much competition for Randle, considering his lengthy injury history and 3.3-yard rushing average the last three years. The biggest obstacle in Randle's path to playing time is himself. Randle was cited for marijuana possession and investigated for felony domestic violence earlier this year, though the former was dismissed and the latter resulted in no charges filed. He could still be disciplined by the league, however. If Randle can seize the opportunity, he has the raw skills to succeed behind the league's strongest offensive line. Running behind an all-world offensive line would do wonders for any back, but Randle's cutback ability and instincts seem well-suited to Dallas' zone-blocking scheme. Last season, he averaged an impressive 6.7 yards per carry, albeit on only 51 rushes. He also has potential as a receiver -- he caught 108 passes in three years at Oklahoma State (2010-12). The Cowboys might use a backfield committee to start the year, but Randle should emerge soon enough.

Charles Sims, Buccaneers

The Buccaneers' 2014 third-round draft pick, Sims did not debut last year until Week 10 because of a fractured ankle. He was eased in slowly, never surpassing 13 carries in a game until the season finale when he rushed 18 times for 69 yards and a touchdown. This season, he could win the starting job. Tampa Bay did not pick up the fifth-year option for 2016 on incumbent Doug Martin, who was limited by injuries the last two seasons. If Sims starts, he figures to have a lot of running room with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston, star receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and high-upside tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins commanding defensive attention in a new-look offense. Sims is also an excellent receiver, averaging an impressive 10.0 yards per reception on 19 catches last season. His soft hands make him a potential three-down back. Sims' stock likely will continue to rise as the season nears, and snagging him at a decent spot might be limited to early summer drafts -- he could quickly enter the full-priced zone.

Theo Riddick, Lions

Riddick impressed the coaching staff last summer, but his path to playing time was blocked by veterans Joique Bell and Reggie Bush. Riddick proved his worth in the passing game, though, matching Bell with 34 receptions and averaging 9.3 yards per catch, including 9.1 yards after the catch. With Bush off to the 49ers, Riddick is expected to handle a larger workload this season under coach Jim Caldwell and his Saints-style running system. The Lions drafted running back Ameer Abdullah, who is also a good receiver, but he had ball-security problems at Nebraska (23 fumbles, 16 lost in four years) due in part to small hands, and questionable pass-protection skills likely will have him brought along slowly with most of his work coming as a returner. Riddick's experience playing the slot in college bodes well for him staying involved in the passing game, as do his excellent open-field speed and acceleration. Riddick likely will come cheap at the draft table this year because of the perception of a crowded backfield and Abdullah's post-draft hype. But he could thrive in Bush's role and provide flex value, particularly in PPR leagues.

Full-Priced:
Carlos Hyde, 49Eers
Latavius Murray, Raiders
Isaiah Crowell, Browns

WIDE RECEIVER

Cody Latimer, Broncos

The learning season is in the rearview mirror for Latimer, and now it's showtime. Latimer remained mostly sidelined last year as a rookie because, by his own admission, he did not fully grasp the offense. A year's experience and an offseason spent studying film and the playbook should help him contribute this season. Pro Bowl wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will continue to lead the team in targets, but Latimer's playmaking ability will be utilized in three-receiver sets, and his opportunities should steadily increase as he develops. Latimer has breathtaking speed -- he ran a 4.39 40 at his pro day last spring despite a minor fracture in his foot. A high school basketball star, he has superior leaping ability and at 6-foot-2 can post up cornerbacks in the red zone. Even though Latimer might be the fourth option in the passing game, behind the aforementioned WR duo and running back C.J. Anderson, there will be more targets up for grabs without Julius Thomas and Wes Welker this season. And while Peyton Manning's Hall of Fame career is setting on the horizon, an aging Manning still compares favorably to most quarterbacks. Latimer's ADP likely will rise through summer, perhaps to the point where his draft-day price exceeds his potential output, but an injury to Thomas or Sanders would spring his value considerably.

Nick Toon, Saints

The window of opportunity for a third receiver to thrive in the New Orleans offense hasn't been this open in years. The Saints traded speedster Kenny Stills to the Dolphins and tight end Jimmy Graham to the Seahawks, then opted not to select a receiver in the draft. Moreover, No. 1 wideout Marques Colston is on the wrong side of 30 with declining skills. Brandin Cooks is a budding star and may even catch 100 passes this year, but his hype train will start to rumble off the tracks as the season approaches. Toon was not involved in the offense much last season, failing to get his first target until Week 12, but he finished with 17 receptions for 215 yards in the final six games. At 6-4, 215, Toon should be a red-zone target for Drew Brees. He's not a burner, but his size makes him hard to jam at the line and helps him make plays on the ball over smaller defensive backs. Joe Morgan, Seantavius Jones and Brandon Coleman will compete for snaps, but the third-wideout role is Toon's to lose.

Bruce Ellington, 49ers

The 49ers let Michael Crabtree and Stevie Johnson walk in free agency. They replaced the former with Torrey Smith, but Johnson's departure leaves 50 targets that Ellington could easily snap up. Used mostly as a returner in his rookie season last year, the 5-9, 197-pound Ellington is undersized but has 4.45 speed. With Smith joining Anquan Boldin as outside receivers, Ellington will work in the slot, which should keep his size from being a problem off the line. The 49ers' passing game could be improved this season, as well, after Colin Kaepernick worked out with legendary quarterback Kurt Warner this offseason to improve his stance, touch and pocket-passing skills. The cousin of Arizona running back Andre Ellington, Bruce has the raw skills, work ethic and opportunity to make an immediate impact. He will be an afterthought on draft day, which will make his potential breakout especially profitable.

Full-Priced:
Brandin Cooks, Saints
Brian Quick, Rams
Davante Adams, Packers

Tight End

Tyler Eifert, Bengals

Eifert has been a popular breakout candidate for a couple years now. The Bengals' 2013 first-round pick as the top tight end in that draft, Eifert had a good rookie season but had to share targets with Jermaine Gresham. Last season, he never got a chance to break out because he dislocated his elbow in the first half of Week 1 and missed the rest of the year. He's healthy now -- he also had shoulder surgery -- and has the position to himself after Gresham left in free agency. The Bengals drafted Tyler Kroft in the third round for depth, but Eifert is expected to be an every-down tight end. At 6-6, 250, Eifert has the size to outmuscle defensive backs and the quickness to outmaneuver linebackers. He has great hands and can also be used split wide as a receiver. With A.J. Green drawing double-teams, Eifert should see plenty of targets over the middle and down the seam; he and Gresham combined for 126 targets in 2013. Eifert likely will not be drafted as a top-10 tight end, but he is certainly capable of earning top-5 value.

Full-priced:
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Buccaneers