This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.
We'll take any edge we can find for our fantasy football teams, particularly at the increasingly tricky wideout position, where new emerging stars have been few and far between since the unprecedented instant success of the 2014 draft class. Fortunately, there is some correlation between a few of the Combine measurements and eventual NFL success for wide receivers.
Baseline For Combine Values
Combine participants are measured in the following traits: height, weight, arm length, hand length, 40-yard dash, 225-pound bench press, vertical jump, broad jump, three-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle and 60-yard shuttle. The last of those drills, the long shuttle, is the redheaded stepchild of the bunch. Nobody quite understands its relevance, and most players simply choose not to participate. The bench press is one of the more well-known events, but it's proven to have minimal correlation with NFL success or draft status, even for players at strength-dependent positions along the interior line. Lower-body strength, which correlates with the vertical and broad jumps, is far more relevant for the movements associated with playing football, particularly at the skill positions.
For our purposes, we'll narrow the
We'll take any edge we can find for our fantasy football teams, particularly at the increasingly tricky wideout position, where new emerging stars have been few and far between since the unprecedented instant success of the 2014 draft class. Fortunately, there is some correlation between a few of the Combine measurements and eventual NFL success for wide receivers.
Baseline For Combine Values
Combine participants are measured in the following traits: height, weight, arm length, hand length, 40-yard dash, 225-pound bench press, vertical jump, broad jump, three-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle and 60-yard shuttle. The last of those drills, the long shuttle, is the redheaded stepchild of the bunch. Nobody quite understands its relevance, and most players simply choose not to participate. The bench press is one of the more well-known events, but it's proven to have minimal correlation with NFL success or draft status, even for players at strength-dependent positions along the interior line. Lower-body strength, which correlates with the vertical and broad jumps, is far more relevant for the movements associated with playing football, particularly at the skill positions.
For our purposes, we'll narrow the focus to size measurements, the jumping drills, the 40-yard dash, the three-cone drill and the short shuttle, using data tracked by ArmchairAnalysis.com for every combine going back to 1999. Once we find some of the trends with successful NFL players, we can create baseline values to analyze recent prospects, including the 2018 rookies.
To start the investigation, the chart below shows the average combine values, grouped by draft round, along with the overall standard deviation for each category.
| PICK | HEIGHT | WEIGHT | ARM | HAND | 40-YARD | VERTICAL | BROAD | SHUTTLE | CONE |
| 1 to 32 | 73.4 | 208 | 32.8 | 9.6 | 4.44 | 37.1 | 123.1 | 4.18 | 6.94 |
| 33 to 64 | 72.6 | 202 | 31.8 | 9.5 | 4.47 | 36.7 | 122.2 | 4.22 | 7.00 |
| 65 to 96 | 72.2 | 199 | 31.8 | 9.1 | 4.46 | 36.4 | 121.9 | 4.19 | 6.95 |
| 97 to 128 | 72.3 | 199 | 31.8 | 9.2 | 4.46 | 36.6 | 121.2 | 4.16 | 6.92 |
| 129 to 160 | 72.2 | 195 | 31.3 | 9.3 | 4.49 | 35.0 | 119.8 | 4.16 | 6.92 |
| 161 to 192 | 71.6 | 195 | 31.5 | 9.7 | 4.47 | 35.9 | 118.9 | 4.12 | 6.84 |
| 193 and higher | 72.7 | 203 | 32.1 | 9.3 | 4.49 | 35.9 | 120.2 | 4.24 | 6.94 |
| Std Dev | 2.2 | 14 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.09 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 0.14 | 0.20 |
As one might expect, first-round picks at wide receiver tend to be the tallest, biggest, fastest players. They're pure athletes. College accolades matter in so far as the best athletes are more likely to be highly accomplished, but production typically doesn't trump the importance of combine measurements for size and speed when teams need to make draft decisions.
Of course, most of the players drafted early will check both boxes, boasting impressive measurables as well as strong collegiate production relative to the competition. The middle and late rounds typically feature wideouts with at least one major hole in their prospect profile, be it their combine performance, college stat lines or the level of competition they faced.
After the first round, the trend is a normal downward movement with a few exceptions. Top shuttle and cone times don't correlate with a WR's draft position, perhaps because there's an inherent negative correlation with weight, which is the strongest predictive measurement for where a player is selected.
One of the more interesting trends occurs at the bottom of the chart, where we see that players selected at 193 or later tend to be bigger and slower than their positional counterparts. This might be explained by teams looking for potential converts to tight end, or perhaps by a desire to take shots on highly flawed prospects who at least have the ideal body type. Traits like speed and agility at least offer some potential for improvement, whereas height is fixed by the time a player reaches his early 20s.
Fantasy Production Standard
With a draft baseline established, a fantasy production standard can also be established. To set this baseline, I took the top-100 fantasy wide receivers from the past 20 years, based on cumulative production from their second through fifth seasons in the NFL. Rookie campaigns were omitted because wide receivers typically need at least a year to develop; multiple studies have shown that the average jump between Year 1 and Year 2 production is far greater than the average gain any season thereafter.
A look at the combine values for wide receivers who went on to achieve success in fantasy terms should help us figure out what traits to look for when examining the current crop of young talent. The chart below shows the average values with the standard deviations.
| HEIGHT | WEIGHT | ARM | HAND | 40-YARD | VERTICAL | BROAD | SHUTTLE | CONE | |
| Average | 72.8 | 204.1 | 32.1 | 9.5 | 4.48 | 36.6 | 121.2 | 4.19 | 6.95 |
| Std Dev | 2.1 | 14.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.09 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 0.16 | 0.23 |
The average values line up nicely with the 33rd to 64th pick values from the first chart. Our successful players tend to be superior to the typical player when it comes to height, weight and vertical jump, but they're either average of ever so slightly below average in terms of 40-yard dash time, broad jump and both agility drills. They also tend to have longer arms and bigger hands, but no more so than would be expected given the findings on height.
We already saw that weight had the strongest correlation with draft spot, and it also has the strongest correlation with pro success. NFL teams apparently are doing something right, though it's easy enough to rattle off a long list of big-bodied, first-round busts.
It's noteworthy that the average 40 time for the group is a respectable 4.48, considering these players tend to be about four pounds heavier than the average wideout prospect. It's no secret that size-adjusted 40 time is a major factor in team evaluations, and our findings support that this should continue to be the case. NFL franchises and fantasy owners alike need to be wary of prospects who run subpar 40 times for their weight.
We also see that most of the standard deviations for our top-100 are nearly identical to those for all draft picks. The exceptions are arm size, 20-yard shuttle and three-cone drill – all of which have standard deviations at least 14 percent greater in the top-100 group. This suggests we needn't be concerned about prospects with short arms or poor agility scores, unless they're also deficient in size-adjusted speed.
Our next chart, below, shows where the players in our top-100 group were drafted. While not exactly surprising, it's at least useful to see confirmation that most of our top fantasy contributors (78 of 100) were drafted within the first three rounds. We see a big drop between the first and second rounds, followed by another big dip moving from Round 3 to Round 4. The range from picks No. 97 to No. 192 is rather fruitless, with just eight of the top-100 players falling in that area.
| PICK | COUNT |
| 1 to 32 | 38 |
| 33 to 64 | 22 |
| 65 to 96 | 18 |
| 97 to 128 | 5 |
| 129 to 160 | 2 |
| 161 to 192 | 1 |
| 193 and higher | 6 |
| Undrafted | 8 |
We do need to note that "193 and higher" includes a range of more than 32 draft spots, as the compensation-pick system means there are usually around 255 total selections in each NFL draft. Antonio Brown, for example, was a sixth-round pick, but he actually falls into our seventh bucket at No. 195 overall.
One of our more interesting findings is that the successful lower-drafted players' combine values were comparable to the overall average. The 22 players picked at No. 97 or later (or undrafted) had an average 40 time of 4.50 seconds and an average vertical of 35.6 inches, falling just a tick below the overall top-100 averages of 4.48 and 36.6. Their average height and weight were 73.1 inches and 204.6 pounds, compared to 72.8 and 204.1 for the top-100 group as a whole. The story was similar for broad jump (120 inches), three-cone drill (6.90), short shuttle (4.17), arm size (31.5 inches) and hand size (9.5 inches).
This finding dispels the notion that late-round/undrafted gems tend to be lesser physical talents who only succeed on the basis of work ethic, toughness or specific scheme fit. Brown is the prime example of a late-round pick who overcame a poor showing at the combine to achieve NFL stardom, but the late-pick, top-100 group also includes a bunch of players like Brandon Marshall, who ran a 4.52 40 at 6-foot-4, 229 pounds. Marshall was drafted at No. 119 overall, hurt by a college career that included just one productive season in Conference USA.
Identifying Promising Late Picks
Most fantasy owners are familiar with the first-round wide receivers, so we need to gain our advantage by figuring out which of the other rookies have the best shot at NFL stardom. This is particularly important in deep leagues and dynasty formats, but also useful in 10/12-team redraft leagues.
So how do we identify these players? While the top-100 receivers tend to have better combine results than the average prospect, some players break the mold. The obvious example is Brown, who had the following combine metrics: 5-foot-10, 186 pounds, 4.56 40, 33.5-inch vertical. He was not even average in any trait, but he also wasn't too far below average in any regard.
The key to figuring out which late-round receivers to target and which to avoid is to create a set of baselines used to evaluate the position, weeding out prospects who fall far from the combine norms for successful players the last 20 years. The net needs to be somewhat wide but not too wide.
I expanded the target group by one standard deviation on the lower side. Green signifies the range of average or better (50th-99th percentile) and yellow is the subpar-but-still-acceptable range (approximately 18th-49th percentile).
With a baseline set, let's look at the 44 wide receivers who participated in this year's combine. Not all the above information is available for every player, but at least some is available for most. As mentioned, the strongest predictors of success are 40-yard time, height and weight, with a special emphasis on the latter. (I ignored the few players who only did the cones, shuttle and bench press, instead focusing on the more important categories.)
Any trait that's above average compared to our top-100 wideouts is color-coded green. If the trait is within one standard deviation on the low side, it's yellow. Red represents traits that fall more than one standard deviation below the baseline – this is the area of concern.
I also included each player's draft slot and NFL.com prospect grade to help provide additional context on expectations as they enter the league.
So, what from this table can we apply to this year's fantasy drafts?
First-Round Contrast
The primary goal is to identify promising wideouts beyond the obvious, but we do need to briefly address the contrasting profiles of the two first-round picks, D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley.
Moore lands in the green range for five metrics and yellow for the other two, with his 4.42 40 time at 210 pounds making a serious impression. His combine profile might be mistaken for that of a top running back prospect, which makes sense given that he's lauded for his run-after-catch ability above all else.
Ridley, on the other hand, has three metrics in red, including two (weight and vertical jump) that we've established as being significant. His 4.43 40 might seem impressive at first glance, but it's nothing special for a 189-pound receiver. The good news is that Ridley may end up playing the slot, a position where we've seen numerous players overcome red flags at the combine to find NFL success. Jamison Crowder checked in at 5-foot-8; Jarvis Landry ran a 4.77 40; Danny Amendola had a 27.5-inch vertical.
Second-Round Studs
Elite college receivers have done more in one season than D.J. Chark did in his final two seasons at LSU: 66 receptions for 1,340 yards and six TDs. But he was drafted in the second round, 61st overall, the eighth wide receiver off the board.
The reason? Chark tested above average in five of seven traits and was within one standard deviation for the other two. He ran the fastest 40-yard dash among receivers at 4.34 – fast for anyone, but blazing at 6-3 – and had the best vertical jump at 40 inches. He's slim (199 pounds) for his height, but the phenomenal 40 time makes it less of a red flag, suggesting he can afford to lose a bit of speed if the Jaguars want him to pack on muscle.
Another second-round pick, Courtland Sutton, seemingly checks the boxes for both college production (3,220 yards, 31 TDs) and combine measurements (five green, two yellow), boasting what appears to be a first-round profile. He came off the board at No. 40 overall to Denver, likely lasting that long because he played for SMU in the American Athletic Conference and needed almost 400 targets to pile up the aforementioned stats.
Chark and Sutton landed in suboptimal situations for rookie-year production, but they're at least worth targeting aggressively in dynasty leagues and should have a spot on redraft breakout lists as soon as next season.
For those seeking instant impact, Anthony Miller and James Washington are probably better bets once team context is taken into account. Miller wasn't at full strength in time for the combine, but he bounced back from a broken foot to post a 4.49 40 and 39-inch vertical at his pro day. While he doesn't stand out on our chart, Miller has good size (5-11, 201) for a likely slot receiver.
Washington's profile is arguably even more encouraging, as he gets a big-time checkmark in the box for weight, the metric with the strongest correlation to NFL success. His ability to run a respectable 4.54 40 despite his stout frame (5-11, 213) suggests Washington won't be physically overmatched at the next level. Factor in his elite college production (4,472 yards, 39 TDs) and it's fair to wonder how the Steelers got him at No. 60 overall.
Digging Deeper
While it's best to focus on wideouts from the first three rounds in most redraft leagues with 12 or fewer teams, dynasty and deep-league owners need to mine for upside from the later rounds. There were four wideouts drafted after pick No. 96 who worked out at the combine and landed in the yellow or green for every category: Antonio Callaway (Browns), DaeSean Hamilton (Broncos), Jaleel Scott (Ravens) and Cedrick Wilson (Cowboys).
Callaway is the celebrity of the bunch, as he seemed to be on track for a top-50 draft selection until a series of off-field issues at Florida led to a full-season suspension in 2017. He failed to impress in the jumping and agility drills, but his combination of top speed (4.41 40) and adequate size (5-11, 200) is promising.
Scott is more obscure and doesn't have a clear path to rookie-year playing time, but he does have first-rate size (6-5, 218) with a good showing in the broad jump (124 inches) and acceptable marks for the vertical jump (34.5 inches) and 40-yard dash (4.56). He isn't quite on the redraft radar, but makes a lot of sense for competitive dynasty leagues.
Wilson and Hamilton stand out less in terms of physical specs, but the
latter at least has a well-rounded profile, whereas the former ran a poor 40 time (4.55) for a beanpole (6-2, 197). Wilson is one of those cases where a closer look reveals some issues that the color-coding doesn't quite show.
Undrafted Upside
Among the undrafted receivers, keep an eye on Allen Lazard (Jaguars) and Jester Weah (Texans). Both are stoutly built, with good speed and impressive vertical jumps for players their size.
Lazard is the main attraction – a four-star recruit who had 596 yards as a true freshman and finished his career at Iowa State with 3,360 yards and 26 touchdowns. He has impressed at every step in his career, including the combine, but he might have been penalized for landing at the extreme upper size range for wide receivers (6-5, 227). It is unfortunate he landed with a team so deep at receiver, as his 40 time (4.55) and vertical jump (38 inches) should erase most of the concern regarding poor agility scores and the lack of a truly dominant college season.
Weah, another size-speed freak (6-2, 211, 4.43) with poor agility scores and solid-but-unspectacular college production, landed with a Houston team that does not have much at wideout besides DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. We are probably only talking deep dynasty leagues at this point, but Weah at least will warrant future fantasy attention if he sticks around on the 53-man roster.
Looking Back to 2017
This analysis need not be limited to rookies; there are still relatively unproven players from the 2017 draft who can be better evaluated with the help of our findings and research.
Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay would have been spotlighted as exciting prospects if we had done the same study last year, and the Seahawks' Amara Darboh and the Redskins' Robert Davis would have been promising under-the-radar picks.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's poor vertical jump (32.5 inches) might have been minor cause for concern, but it would have been vastly outweighed by his solid 40 time (4.54) for a wide receiver with a bulky frame (6-1, 215). Cooper Kupp's poor combine performance (4.62 40, 31-inch vertical) would have seemed problematic, and that is one where we simply would have been wrong.
Kupp is the latest example of a player with red flags at the combine going on to thrive in the slot. That is good news for San Francisco's Trent Taylor, who ran a 4.61 last year at 5-8, 181. ArDarius Stewart and Taywan Taylor also warrant mention for 2017 combine showings that were at least average in every regard, though Taylor's excellent showing in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) probably isn't important for predicting future success.
This article appears in the 2018 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.
