This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What could turn out to be the most entertaining game of Super Wild Card Weekend unfolds Sunday night at Raymond James Stadium between the upstart Commanders and NFC South champion Buccaneers.
Let's dive into the latest odds plus bets and predictions for the prime-time showdown.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Buccaneers -155 (ESPN BET Sportsbook)/ Commanders +140 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Point spread: Commanders +3 (Caesars Sportsbook)/ Buccaneers -3 (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 50.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Over 50 points (Caesars Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has remained relatively stable, but there is some faith shown by the public in the Commanders. The number has moved from Buccaneers -3.5 to -3 over the course of the week, and there's still a possibility of it crossing the key number to -2.5 at some sportsbooks before kickoff.
The projected total, in contrast, has held firm at 50.5 to 51 points throughout the week. With both teams free of any short-term injuries at the key skill positions and the Bucs dealing with a pair of injuries in the secondary, offensive expectations unsurprisingly remain elevated.
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Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Picks
Every Super Wild Card Weekend game has plenty of potential given the caliber of teams involved. But there's reason to believe this Commanders-Buccaneers battle could turn into the jewel of the slate. The explosive players available on both sides have the ability to pile up the points.
The Commanders averaged 26.4 points per road game this season and 29.7 over the last three contests overall. Washington mustered just 20 points against the Buccaneers back in Week 1 in Jayden Daniels' first professional game, but most recently the Commanders scored 30 or more points in three of the last four games that the first-team offense played a full four quarters.
Washington scored at least 40 points on three occasions, but Dan Quinn's squad also yielded 30 or more points in five games. The Commanders finished the season allowing 25.0 points per road game as well, while the Bucs put up 28.6 per home contest and 33.0 over the last three games. Both Daniels and Baker Mayfield come in off prolific seasons, with Daniels having recorded 31 total touchdowns and Mayfield compiling a career-high 4,500 yards and 41 touchdown passes along with 71.4 percent completion rate.
The Bucs' defense is a very effective unit against the run, which helped lead to Tampa Bay facing the league's fourth-highest pass play rate during the regular season (63.5 percent). Therefore, with Daniels having exceeded 235 passing yards in six of 15 full games and this game likely to be a back-and-forth affair, I'm in the camp of the Over on both the game total and Daniels' passing yardage total.
- Over 50 points (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)
- Jayden Daniels Over 230.5 passing yards (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Bucs Prediction
Buccaneers 28, Commanders 24
Given the talent on either side and the defensive questions each team has in the secondary, I'm not overthinking this game environment. We should see a fair share of ball movement and points over the course of four quarters. The fact that the first meeting finished with 57 total points in what was Daniels' first NFL game fuels my belief. However, I'll give Mayfield and his teammates the slight edge here thanks to home field and their postseason experience, leading to a prediction of a close win for Tampa Bay.
