King for a Day: Week 15 Values

King for a Day: Week 15 Values

This article is part of our King for a Day series.

DraftKings is kicking off its championships in Week 15, with the $3 Million Millionaire Maker ($27 entry), $300,000 Hot Route ($100 Entry) and $25,000 Quarter Arcade ($0.25 Entry). This is also the final chance to win entry through an NFL contest into Week 16's $3.1 Million Main Event ($1,500 entry).

Here are my favorite players for Week 15 on DraftKings…

Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler, CHI (vs. NO), $7500 – As bad as things have gone from a team perspective, Cutler is still on pace for 4,241 passing yards and 34 total touchdowns, despite turning in a few absolute duds. The Saints are arguably the worst team in the NFL when it comes to defending the pass, which really says something in this particular season. And, as much as I like Cutler in his own right, it certainly doesn't hurt that all of his receivers are strong options at their respective prices. Smokin' Jay is best used in combination with Alshon Jeffery ($8200), Marquess Wilson ($3000) or Martellus Bennett ($5900).

Matt Ryan, ATL (vs. PIT), $6600 – Coming off a massive performance against the Packers, Ryan will head back home to face a team that's even easier to pass on, in a game that projects as a high-flying shootout. As with Cutler, part of the appeal here is the stacking potential, with Julio Jones ($7800), Roddy White ($5800) and Harry Douglas ($4200) all carrying very reasonable prices. Of course, given that all three of those guys are banged up, you'll need to keep a close eye on the injury news to determine which to use.

Other options:Drew Brees, NO (at CHI), $8400; Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (at ATL), $7900; Eli Manning, NYG (vs. WAS), $6400; Philip Rivers, SD (vs. DEN), $6200; Jake Locker, TEN (vs. NYJ), $5400

Notes: Brees has the perfect matchup to bounce back, as the Bears have surrendered more DraftKings points to quarterbacks than any other team. Roethlisberger gets to face a terrible defense in a dome, and he's already produced four games with 30+ DK points this season. Manning isn't as reliable of an option, but he'll get to face the leaky Washington secondary, and he gets to throw to Odell Beckham. Rivers has to deal with an excellent defense, but I won't be surprised if he ends up attempting 50 passes. While obviously tough to trust, Locker comes at a dirt-cheap price against a lousy Jets secondary. Not pictured: Johnny Manziel ($5900). As much as I've been rooting for the Browns to make this switch, the conservative Cleveland coaching staff will probably come out with the most boring gameplan possible.

Running Backs

Dan Herron, IND (vs. HOU), $4900 – While the Colts refuse to give up on Trent Richardson, they did move in the appropriate direction last week, with Herron getting 47 snaps, compared to 32 for the former first-round draft pick. The carries were essentially split 50-50, but Herron caught four balls for 45 yards on seven targets, while Richardson didn't get a single look through the air. Furthermore, it was Herron who dominated the playing time in a tight fourth quarter, with his afternoon highlighted by a brilliant spin move to pick up a game-deciding 4th-and-1. I'd be shocked if Herron doesn't win the battle for snaps, carries and targets this week, and he's attached to an excellent offense, facing a mediocre Houston defense.

Latavius Murray, OAK (at KC), $4000 – Murray suffered a concussion the last time these teams met, but only after he rumbled for 112 yards and two touchdowns on four carries. Following a Week 13 absence, he returned for Sunday's win over the 49ers to account for 23 of Oakland's 29 running-back carries. Murray can thus be expected to lead the Oakland backfield in Week 15, against a Kansas City defense that has been hopeless versus the run since midseason. "Hopeless" might actually be kind for a unit that just allowed Arizona's Kerwynn Williams to rumble for 100 yards on 19 carries.

Other options:Le'Veon Bell, PIT (at ATL), $9600; Matt Forte, CHI (vs. NO), $9000; C.J. Anderson, DEN (at SD), $7800; LeSean McCoy, PHI (vs. DAL), $6600; Jonathan Stewart, CAR (vs. TB), $5000 LeGarrette Blount, NE (vs. MIA) $4400; Chris Ivory/Chris Johnson, NYJ (at TEN), $4200/$3600

Notes: Bell is going to have a big game against arguably the NFL's worst defense, and there are enough cheap players at every other position to roster him without much problem. Forte probably won't be as popular of a choice as Bell, and you get a similar combination of talent, role and matchup. Anderson's ankle injury is worth keeping an eye on, but he's been incredibly consistent since becoming the starter, and he's expected to play in Sunday's game. McCoy burnt the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and his lack of touchdowns still feel somewhat fluky. I only like Stewart if DeAngelo Williams sits again, as I'm a bit worried that the Carolina offensive line will be exposed without the threat of Cam Newton's running. With a New England blowout quite possibly on the way, Blount offers phenomenal upside at just $4400. The Tennessee defense seems to have all but given up on its season, making both Johnson and Ivory options, even though the timeshare limits each player's ceiling.

Wide Receivers

T.Y. Hilton, IND (vs. HOU), $8000 – Coming off a massive 10-150-2 showing against the excellent Cleveland pass defense, Hilton is on pace to finish with a 96-1,594-9 receiving line on a modest 146 targets. While he may not see the consistent volume of other stud No. 1 wideouts, Hilton more than makes up for it with his big-play ability. Also, his targets have been held back by game situations, as he's drawn at least nine in every close contest the Colts have played this season. Sunday's game should be at least a decent one, and Hilton seems to like facing the Texans, who he burnt for 9-223-1 in Week 5. In two games against Houston last year, he put up 7-121-3 and 8-78-0, with 12 targets in each contest. Hilton even had success against the Texans as a rookie in 2012, when 189 of his 861 receiving yards and two of his seven touchdowns came in matchups with Houston.

Cecil Shorts III, JAX (at BAL), $3500 – Shorts has done next to nothing in Jacksonville's woeful offense the past three weeks, but he's still getting the snaps of a No. 1 receiver, and he has 18 targets over the last two games. Facing a poor secondary in a matchup that will likely force Blake Bortles to attempt a lot of passes, Shorts offers a nice ceiling for a sub-$4000 wideout. The Ravens rank dead last in allowing DraftKings points to wide receivers, so while I expect Bortles to have (yet another) poor game, Shorts should have every opportunity to pile up receptions.

Marquess Wilson, CHI (vs. NO), $3000 – With Brandon Marshall (lung/ribs) out for the season, and Cutler carrying a reasonable price tag against an incompetent defense, Wilson and his minimum price will surely be a popular option for Week 15 on DraftKings. That's with good cause, as the 2013 seventh-round draft pick figures to be something close to an every-snap player, after logging 62-of-69 snaps in last Thursday's loss to the Cowboys. While he can't be expected to replace Marshall's production, Wilson did draw a red-zone target last week, and he's 6-4 with respectable 4.5 speed. He was widely viewed as an excellent bargain in the seventh round last year, as he seemingly fell in the draft because of an unusual conflict with his college head coach.

Other options:Antonio Brown, PIT (at ATL), $8700; Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (vs. WAS), $8400; Alshon Jeffery, CHI (vs. NO), $8200; Dez Bryant, DAL (at PHI), $7900; Julio Jones, ATL (vs. PIT), $7800; Mike Evans, TB (at CAR), $6600; DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (at IND), $6100; Keenan Allen, SD (vs. DEN), $6000; Sammy Watkins, BUF (vs. GB), $5600; Pierre Garcon, WAS (at NYG), $4800; Harry Douglas, ATL (vs. PIT), $4200

Notes: Brown should be worth the lofty price tag against an incompetent Falcons defense. Beckham is another safe option with a sky-high ceiling to match, as the Giants have been aggressively feeding him the rock and will continue to do so against the swiss-cheese Washington secondary. Jeffery no longer has to compete with Marshall for targets, and he probably won't face too much competition from the Saints' cornerback group, either. Bryant disappointed in the Thanksgiving matchup with Philly, but he could turn in a massive game, if the Cowboys fall behind. Jones (hip) is obviously a fantastic value, but his health is a major question mark. While Vincent Jackson hogged the receptions in Week 14, Evans found the end zone twice, and the rookie is still the better Bucs receiver to roster. Hopkins becomes a fantastic option if Andre Johnson (concussion) is unable to play. Allen had a miserable trip to Revis Island last week, and while he draws another tough matchup, a high volume of targets should allow him to have a strong fantasy game. The Bills will likely have to throw the ball around for a second straight week, meaning no shortage of opportunities for Watkins, against a shaky Green Bay secondary. Garcon caught nine passes on 11 targets in DeSean Jackson's absence last week, but the former Colt can only be trusted if Jackson misses another game. With Roddy White possibly still bothered by his ankle, Douglas will be a fantastic option if Julio Jones is unable to play.

Tight End

Travis Kelce, KC (vs. OAK), $4600 – The "Free Travis Kelce" movement is no longer needed, now that the man known to many as Baby Gronk is finally getting a full complement of snaps. Kelce didn't do much with those snaps in Weeks 12 and 13, but be broke out for 7-110-0 on nine targets in Sunday's loss to the Cardinals. With the Chiefs possessing minimal skill position talent outside of Kelce and Jamaal Charles, the hulking tight end should be quite busy come Sunday.

Other options:Jimmy Graham, NO (at CHI), $6300; Martellus Bennett, CHI (vs. NO), $5900; Greg Olsen, CAR (vs. TB), $5400; Delanie Walker, TEN (vs. NYJ), $4400

Notes: Graham's slump finally has me worried, but he's still intriguing at this price against a terrible Chicago defense. Bennett won't lack for targets in Brandon Marshall's absence, as we saw in the second half of last Thursday's loss to the Cowboys. Olsen shouldn't take much of a hit from the quarterback switch, as some of Cam Newton's carries may turn into Derek Anderson passes. Walker was a popular and disappointing choice last week, but you have to like his potential to pile up targets, especially if Kendall Wright (hand) doesn't play.

Team D/ST

New England Patriots vs. MIA, $2800 – Miami's offense is reliant on short passes, and while that normally limits sacks and turnovers, the Dolphins will likely have to take some shots downfield this week. Meanwhile, the Patriots shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball against a fading Miami defense, which was steamrolled by the Ravens in a crucial Week 14 contest. With all signs pointing to a comfortable Patriots victory in Foxboro, I'm more than happy to pick up a near-elite defense for just $2800. Furthermore, New England may finally get Chandler Jones back from a hip injury, just in time to torment the porous Miami offensive line.

Other options:St. Louis Rams (vs. ARI), $3600; Baltimore Ravens (vs. JAX), $3400; Cincinnati Bengals (at CLE), $2600; Carolina Panthers, (vs. TB), $2600; Oakland Raiders, (at KC), $2200

Notes: I have little doubt that Drew Stanton and his porous offensive line will be overwhelmed by the St. Louis pass rush, but I'm a bit hesitant to fork over $3600 in a week with so many cheap options available. The Ravens are an even safer bet than the Rams, as it's hard to imagine the Jaguars putting up much of a fight in Baltimore. I don't have any faith in the Cincinnati defense, but $2600 is cheap for a unit that's facing a rookie quarterback in his first career start. The Panthers defense has shown significant improvement over the last three weeks, and it now gets a favorable matchup at home. The Raiders are a solid punt play for a second straight week, after coming up big against the 49ers on Sunday.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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