This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
The Masters Betting Preview
It's Masters week! The greatest time of the year in the golf world is upon us as the best players in the world along with past Masters champions and top amateurs head down Magnolia Lane for the annual Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. The 95-player field is highlighted by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler at 4-1 odds and the storylines are plentiful, from can Rory McIlroy finally win a green jacket to seeing if one of the 12 LIV golfers win a major in a third consecutive year. Last year, Scheffler won by four strokes over Ludvig Aberg for his second Masters victory.
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Course Overview
Par 72, 7,555 yards
These are the average rankings of Masters Champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 7.5
- SG: Approach: 7.5
- SG: Around-the-Green: 3.3
- SG: Putting: 15.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 1.5
- Driving Distance: 11.8
- Driving Accuracy: 16.5
Augusta is the course that golf fans know the best, but what does it take to have success around the venue? At over 7,500 yards, it's one of the longest courses on Tour with three par-4s at 495+ yards and distance is at more of a premium than accuracy with minimal rough surrounding fairways that average over 50 yards wide. We can see from the stats above that tee to green play has been a key metric, with the champion ranking first or second in the category since strokes gained data was introduced at the tournament in 2021. Amen Corner has always been a pivotal stretch of this tournament as the long par-4 11th hole with water in play on the second shot was costly to Aberg in the final round last year, while the par-3 12th derailed Jordan Spieth in 2016 and the par-5 13th is an eagle opportunity that can provide a spark for the home stretch. Course history has always been more important here than anywhere else due to the uniqueness of the venue that includes uneven lies, runoffs around the green and tricky, fast greens. Ideally, I'm looking to target players that excel from tee to green, those that approach it well from 225+ to take advantage of the par-5s and players with a good track record at the event.
Augusta All-Stars
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at Augusta National over the last five years (minimum two appearances):
- Scottie Scheffler: 70.4
- Cameron Smith: 71.0
- Will Zalatoris: 71.0
- Jon Rahm: 71.3
- Xander Schauffele: 71.3
It's no secret that Augusta is a difficult test as evidenced by Scheffler being the lone player with a scoring average under 71 since 2020. The two-time green jacket recipient is aiming to be the ninth player to win the event at least three times, and he's also looking to break a stretch of six straight tournaments without a win – his longest drought since 2023. Another past Masters champion and multiple major winner on this list is Rahm, who has five top-10s here since 2018. One would think he'll be plenty motivated to right the ship after a disappointing major season in 2024. Rahm currently sits third in the season-long individual LIV Standings, having posted a top-10 in all five events. I expect big things for him in the majors this year and so do the oddsmakers considering he's the third choice at 13-1 odds.
Ball-Striking Superstars
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Collin Morikawa: 2.36
- Rory McIlroy: 1.98
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.94
- Shane Lowry: 1.70
- Corey Conners: 1.69
While McIlroy has had the most noteworthy year this far with two wins in marquee events at Pebble Beach and Sawgrass, statistically it has been Morikawa that has been in the best form from tee to green. Since his last win in the fall of 2023, he's finished runner-up four times, most recently at Bay Hill last month. Morikawa (18-1 odds) has also played well here with three consecutive top-10s highlighted by a T3 last year. Speaking of players that are in good form, Lowry has had a strong 2025 that's consisted of a runner-up in a signature event followed by four top-20s in five events. The key to Lowry's success has been his iron play, where he ranks sixth in SG: Approach this year. At 45-1 odds, he provides good value to bettors and it surely doesn't hurt to have a former major champion on your list of wagers.
The Masters Bets: Outright Picks
Bryson DeChambeau (20-1)
DeChambeau had mostly struggled at The Masters until last year, where he led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee en route to a T6 result. With three top-5s over his last seven majors while also coming off a fifth place finish at LIV Miami last week, the two-time major champion can't be overlooked.
Corey Conners (60-1)
If you read my Best Major Championship Futures Bets in our 2025 Golf Draft Kit, you'll see that I locked in Conners at 80-1 back in December. Not only does he have three top-10s over his last five trips to Augusta, he also has three such results over his last four starts. Great value here.
Sepp Straka (75-1)
This price feels downright disrespectful to Straka, who sits second in the FedExCup Standings and has a win, two top-10s in Signature Events and a T14 at The PLAYERS. He had his best finish at Augusta last year in which he finished 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach. He's a strong target if you're looking for a long shot.
The Masters Bets: Placement Wagers
Hideki Matsuyama
Top-5 Finish: 5-1
When it comes to the course history angle, there aren't many golfers that have been more consistent at Augusta National than Matsuyama. The 2021 event champion hasn't missed the cut in his last 10 appearances and has finished outside the top 20 just twice during that stretch.
Cameron Young
Top-10 Finish: 17-2
Young has the profile that usually does well around here as a longer hitter and good putter, so it's no surprise that he has back-to-back top-10s at the event. He's coming off a top-20 in San Antonio last week, and these are good odds for someone with a top-10 in over one-third of the majors he's played in.
Tom Kim
Top-5 Finish: 14-1
Kim hasn't been in great form lately but with that comes a discount in price. And let's not forget, Kim was T16 in his Masters debut and was second in SG: Approach here last year. We know he can play well on this stage having posted a T2 at The Open in 2023.
The Masters Bets: To Miss The Cut
Ludvig Aberg (+300)
I know Aberg was last year's runner-up in his Masters debut, but he came into the event in much better form than this year, where he's missed back-to-back cuts. His approach and driving accuracy numbers have dipped this year, and he's also struggled with his short game recently. I'm comfortable fading him this week.
Tommy Fleetwood (+310)
You have to wonder about Fleetwood's confidence level after posting three consecutive over-par rounds in San Antonio last week including a final round 81. He didn't stand out statistically in any area and struggled mightily with his driving as well as losing strokes off the tee for the first time this year. There are always some big names that miss the weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if Fleetwood is one of them.
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