This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club (7,569 yards, par 72)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $4,000,000 and 700 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
For the first time ever the Memorial Tournament will take place the week prior to the U.S. Open. It is something tournament host Jack Nicklaus has long been against, but in the new Signature Event era, this was the week the PGA Tour wanted it to be. This is the start of a huge three-week stretch of golf, with two Signature Events sandwiching a major championship. There not only will be huge purses on the line but also major FedExCup and OWGR points -- important with for big events later this year like the FedExCup Playoffs, Olympics and Presidents Cup.
Muirfield Village is a favorite amongst Tour pros. The fairways are generous, it presents a lot of challenges on the second shot and the greens are as pure as you will find. That's why even the week before a major championship, all eligible players for the Memorial are in the field with the exception of Robert MacIntyre, who elected to return home to Scotland to be with friends and family following his first PGA Tour win at the RBC Canadian Open. That means this will be the first start for Xander Schauffele as a major champion and the first start for Scottie Scheffler after all charges were dropped stemming from that traffic incident prior to the second round of the PGA Championship. Rory McIlroy is also in great form and is hoping to win this tournament for the first time. Viktor Hovland will be hoping to defend his title and pick up his first win of the season.
This is the second-to-last Signature Event of the season and also the last one which will feature a 36-hole cut, as is the case with the first two player-hosted invitational Signature Events at Riviera and Bay Hill. That will mean this field of 73 players will be shrunk down to just the top 50 players and ties for the weekend, or any players within 10 strokes of the 36-hole lead. It's pretty unlikely especially at a course like this, but with that last qualifier we could potentially see single digit players cut from this event. That would be a tremendous blow for DFS players to have one of those players that ends up missing this cut. Of course this is also a huge week for one-and-done players with the champion taking home a whopping $4 million.
Jack is famous for tinkering with Muirfield Village and nearly every year there's a little something here or there that doesn't look quite the same. It's one of the reasons why only one person has ever in the 48 years of this tournament shot 20-under after 72 holes and that was Tom Lehman back in 1994. Last year's seven-under winning total by Viktor Hovland in a playoff over Denny McCarthy was the highest since Greg Norman won at even-par back in 1990. Speaking of playoffs, they have been quite common at Muirfield Village recently, with six in the last 10 tournaments.
I think we can expect some pretty tough scoring conditions again this year. While we might get some rain on Wednesday, things should dry out for the weekend in Dublin, Ohio. The real concern for the players is going to be the wind. Gusts are expected to reach close to 30 mph in each of the first three rounds. That will certainly cause havoc for players on such a demanding second-shot golf course. Sunday is expected to feature the lightest winds, but the course should be pretty baked by then out if we avoid the pop-up storms common during this time of the year. I would not be surprised at all to see another champion finish at only a single digit under par.
Recent Champions
2023 - Viktor Hovland (-7)
2022 - Billy Horschel (-13)
2021 - Patrick Cantlay (-13)
2020 - Jon Rahm (-9)
2019 - Patrick Cantlay (-19)
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
2017 - Jason Dufner (-13)
2016 - William McGirt (-15)
2015 - David Lingmerth (-15)
2014 - Hideki Matsuyama (-13)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Total Driving
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Par 5 Scoring
Champion's Profile
Muirfield Village is the ultimate second-shot golf course. It's a reason why iron play reigns supreme here year after year. The fairways are pretty spacious and for the most part reward distance off the tee, however, there are a few par-4s also on the shorter end that place a premium on accuracy. This rough is no joke and in some scenarios players will just be hacking out trying to set up a good number for their third shot. SG: Off-the-Tee and total driving will be the two key stats to look at after your standard iron play stats like SG: Approach, GIR percentage and proximity. There are a fair amount of elevation changes around Muirfield Village that make picking the right club extremely difficult. Combine that with some gusty winds this week and your ball striking is going to have to be at its best to contend.
Of course if things do get really difficult from a ball-striking perspective a lot of pressure will trickle into your short game. If you miss greens you are going to want to be in the bunkers, even if some of those shots are a bit tricky. The reason is because Muirfield Village has a lot of long rough in close proximity to the greens. You won't be able to get any spin out of that rough and it will be incredibly difficult if you short-side yourself. I won't be like we saw at Hamilton last week with all the runoffs and a lot of options for players. If you miss a green here you are taking your most lofted wedge and praying it stops. There is certainly a bit of luck in that so I tend to lean towards the ball-striking numbers even more here.
The last thing that the champion of the Memorial Tournament always does well is par-5 scoring. There are four of them out there and the majority of the field will be able to reach all of them in two shots. The par-5s are where you need to make your score because if the conditions are tough you will be just hanging on for this brutal set of par-3s and a number of extremely long par-4s.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($14,000)
This is an astonishing price for a Signature Event, but that's also why I think it's very doable to work Scheffler into lineups. The field is so deep from top to bottom that even going down to the $9K range after is by no means a bad move considering that Scheffler is miles ahead of the rest of the world in ball striking and also leads the PGA Tour in par-5 scoring. He has finished solo third in his last two starts at Muirfield Village, including last year where he gained an absurd 11.1 strokes on approach.
Rory McIlroy ($12,400)
If you want to pivot off Scheffler, McIlroy has to be the next choice. He has really rounded his entire game into form gaining strokes across the board in each of his last three starts. McIlroy ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in total driving, 20th in SG: Approach, 18th in proximity and 22nd in scrambling this season. He has also gained strokes on the greens in seven ofhis last eight starts. McIlroy has never won at Muirfield Village but he does have five top-10s and eight top-20s in 12 career starts.
Collin Morikawa ($11,800)
After losing strokes in four of five weeks on approach, Morikawa's iron play is back to vintage form and led him to fourth-place finishes at both the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge. He now has four top-5 finishes and nine top-25s this season. Morikawa ranks second in driving accuracy and will set that iron game up for plenty of quality looks this week. The real game changer for the Cal product is that he is 15th in SG: Around-the-Green this season, which has been a weakness of his game in recent years. Morikawa owns a win and a runner-up at Muirfield Village.
The Middle Tier
Tony Finau ($9,800)
Finau comes into this event having racked up top-20 finishes in four of his last six starts, including a T2 in Houston. Muirfield Village has been a place he has found good success with four top-15 finishes in seven career starts. There's not many better options from a ball-striking perspective as Finau ranks ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 18th in total driving, 11th in GIR percentage and eighth in par-5 scoring. He hasn't putted well this season, but it has taken a big leap forward in recent weeks and he has gained strokes on the greens in all but two appearances at this course.
Billy Horschel ($9,000)
Horschel has admittedly been off my radar for much of the year, but it's time I give him his spotlight heading to a course he absolutely loves. The former FedExCup champion got back in the win column in Punta Cana which was one of four top-10s and seven top-25s this season. Horschel is now up to 10th in SG: Total this season led by his fantastic putting and short game. He has also gained on approach in six-of-nine and off the tee in five-of-eight. The 2022 Memorial champion has racked up six top-15 finishes at this course over the years.
Sepp Straka ($8,900)
Straka continues to be a favorite DFS play of mine due to his extremely consistent ball striking of late. He has gained strokes off the tee in 13 of his last 14 measured tournaments and has gained over 26 strokes on approach in his last five starts. For perspective that 1.3 strokes per round on approach over his last five would rank him right with Scheffler for the season-long lead in that category. This is tremendous value for a player like Straka and he also has a pair of top-20s at Muirfield Village.
The Long Shots
Kurt Kitayama ($8,400)
Kitayama was once known as a boom-or-bust play, but he has turned into one of the most consistent value options on a weekly basis. Kitayama has finished outside the top 40 just once in his 13 starts this season. A lot of that has to do with how solid he is hitting the ball, having gained on approach in 14 of his last 15 measured starts and off the tee in his last 13. Kitayama ranks 18th in SG: Tee-to-Green, ninth in total driving, ninth in proximity and 34th in scrambling this season.
Justin Rose ($8,000)
It's been a struggle through much of the season for Rose, but things seem to be finally turning a corner. Rose showed out to a T6 finish at the PGA Championship and then followed that up by ranking fourth in the field for the week in SG: Approach at Colonial. Rose's putting and scrambling have been strong over the last few years and Muirfield Village is a place that really fits his eye. He has racked up a win (2010) among a whopping nine top-15 finishes here.
Davis Thompson ($7,900)
I'm willing to go back to Thompson at this price even after a MC last week in Canada. Prior to that he had racked up five top-25s in a seven-event stretch. Thompson is an excellent ball striker, ranking 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 18th in GIR percentage. His short game is also pretty underrated at 32nd in SG: Around-the-Green. Thompson is inside the top 35 in par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring and has to be going into this week with his head up after making it through U.S. Open final qualifying on Monday.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Even though it is a Signature Event, I am in favor of a "stars and scrubs" build, simply because there aren't really any scrubs and those top 3-4 options have been so good lately. I'm also really not a fan of the $10K range at all, but the $9K range presents a lot of strong values to pair alongside a Scheffler or a McIlroy. Muirfield Village is typically fairly sticky in terms of course history, so I'd like to try to look for players who have had at least a couple good results there over the years. That being said, most of those players have typically been known as elite ball strikers throughout their careers so it really isn't a surprise they have had so much success. A few more names to watch not mentioned above are Russell Henley ($9,700), Keegan Bradley ($9,400), Alex Noren ($9,000) and Austin Eckroat ($7,900).
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