This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Procore Championship
Silverado Country Club
Napa, CA
The PGA Tour heads to Napa for another edition of the Procore Championship.
Well, after a week-long off season, we're back at it again. Oh, that's right, this isn't a new season anymore, it's still the 2024 season...but the playoffs have ended. So, it's all a bit weird how things work these days, but we trudge on because that's what we do. I've been trying to find the correct comparison to the PGA Tour's fall season, and I think it's this - The fall season is essentially the preseason in the NFL, but the numbers count...kind of. The stars for the most part are not participating and when they do, we have no idea if they even care. The up and comers are trying to make the team or in this case, make their mark, so they can enjoy the fruits of the regular season, so it's more about the young players than anything else. Yeah, it's not a glowing endorsement of the fall season, but hey, some people enjoy the preseason, just as some people enjoy the fall season. I'm not here to judge, I'm here to help you make informed decisions on a weekly basis, and that's what I'll continue to do.
As we enter the fall season, let's think about motivation and how that matters. As I mentioned previously, the big names will have nearly no motivation other than their internal need for competition and money of course, these guys are probably not going to make huge waves in the fall, but everyone else could. Well, not everyone else, not everyone can win, but everyone else will surely be motivated to improve their position while the top guys are snoozing. This is the time of year when we see guys that struggled in the summer come alive and new names appear for the first time. Yes, there are some things to get excited about in the fall, it's just a different set of things than the summer.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.
LAST TIME
Sahith Theegala shot a final round 68 on his way to a two-stroke victory over S.H. Kim.
FAVORITES
Wyndham Clark (12-1)
And just like that, Clark is back atop the odds chart. Okay, it took a while for Clark to get back here, but the important thing is that he's back. Clark started the 2024 hot, but hit a huge rut in the middle of the season, only to pull out of it as the regular season came to a close. On form alone, Clark should be near the top of the odds chart, but his track record here is not great, so I'd probably hold off on this bet.
Sahith Theegala (12-1)
Theegala is the opposite of Clark in that his form isn't great, but his track record is strong here. Theegala is the defending champ and he also has two additional top-15s in four starts total. His form was pretty bad heading into the Tour Championship, but he managed to put four good rounds together, which could be a sign that he's back on his game. Though he's defending this week, he looks like a decent option for a win bet.
Corey Conners (14-1)
Conner's has not had a great season to this point, but he has shown some flashes of why we think he can be a top-10 player at some point if everything lines-up. The problem is that his track record here is not that great. He's missed two cuts in four starts and his best showing was only a T13 in 2019. Probably not the place to make a win wager.
THE NEXT TIER
Min Woo Lee (22-1)
Expectations were high for Lee entering this season and for the most part, he failed to live up to them. He had a few moments this season, but many of us expected Lee to turn a few moments into a bunch of solid finishes and that didn't happen. Perhaps Lee can use the fall season to boost his numbers for the 2024 season, we know he has the talent, now he needs to show it on a more consistent basis.
Max Homa (25-1)
Speaking of "didn't play to expectations", Homa did not have a good year by his standards and yet he's a member of the Presidents Cup team. Homa is now in a spot where he can accomplish two things this week. He can try to get his game back in shape for the Presidents Cup and he can also quiet the critics about his inclusion on the team. A chip on the shoulder is often a good thing for a golfer. Oh, I almost forgot, Homa has won this event twice in the past three years.
Eric Cole (45-1)
Cole had a great rookie season in 2023 and carried some of that momentum over into 2024, but soon after his game fell off and he's been looking for it ever since. Cole may have just needed a small reset though as a lot of success came at him pretty fast this past year. He played well at this event last year, carding a T4 and with some time off, I think he'll find his best form soon.
LONG SHOTS
Matt Kuchar (60-1)
It's hard to say if Kuchar has enough gas in the tank to win another PGA Tour event, but he did make a run not too long ago and if he's to do it, it will likely be against a field that is light at the top, like this one. It also helps that he's played well here before, with two top-15s in his past two tries here, one of which was a top-10 last year.
Mark Hubbard (65-1)
Hubbard failed to get hot for a prolonged stretch this season like he did last season, but we know he has it in him. Hubbard has a pretty decent track record at this event and players have been known to flip a switch in the fall, so perhaps this mini-break was just what Hubbard needed to find his 2023 form.
ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES
Highly-Chosen Pick: Max Homa - Just like last year, we won't be keeping track of these picks during the fall because there simply aren't many OAD leagues in play right now. With that said, if you are still playing and need a pick for this week, Homa looks like a good one. No, he's not on top of his game right now, but I have a feeling that the Presidents Cup selection, added to his affinity for this track, will lead to some good results.
Moderately-Chosen Pick: Eric Cole - Again here, I'm hoping for a change in form with the new season and by season, I'm referring to fall, not a wrap-around season. Cole is bound to pull it together soon and what better place than one where he played well this past year.
Lightly-Chosen Pick: Matt Kuchar - If you're still going in a OAD league, what are the odds that you've used Kuchar? I'd say pretty low. Kuchar has looked like his younger self in his past two starts, a T3 at the 3M Open and a T12 at the Wyndham. If he's still on his game this week, he could post another high finish.
Buyer Beware: Any Big-Name Player - I'm going to put this disclaimer out here at the start of the fall season. Though some star players will show up during the fall season, you never know which ones will come to play and which ones are just playing out the string. It's best not to invest in too many of them, because more often than not, they won't play like the guy you remember from the regular season.
FANDUEL PICKS
Upper Range: Sahith Theegala ($12,000)
Middle Range: Mark Hubbard ($9,800)
Lower Range: Justin Lower ($8,600)
