2014-2015 Maple Leafs Preview: Buyer Beware

The Leafs didn't -- or couldn't -- respond last year when the going got tough, and their postseason dreams disappeared faster than free peanuts during happy hour. A stretch of two wins in 16 games will do that to a team.

But hey -- they got to pick eighth overall in the draft, so all was not lost. Right?

The Leafs' on-ice product will be improved this year, but so will that of a lot of other teams in the East. And the golf course will once again beckon come April.

Now, don't get me wrong -- there are rays of hope for fans and fantasy owners alike. But it's never great news when a team makes its biggest moves off the ice instead of on it.

Brendan Shanahan arrived as team president in April. The team replaced its assistant coaches with defensive specialist Peter Horachek and proven youth developer Steve Spott. And then Shanny hired pimple-faced, advanced-stats guru Kyle Dubas and uber-capologist Brandon Pridham to slot in as assistant general managers.

Can you say housecleaning?

The on-ice moves were less impressive, but they should quietly bear fruit. Daniel Winnik and Mike Santorelli will improve a possession game that sat in the league's bottom-third in 2013-14. And Leo Komarov, Stephane Robidas and Roman Polak bring some much-needed 60-grit sandpaper to Leafland. Slowly, but surely, the Leafs will become a team that's not only hard to play against, but pops pucks loose and knows how to hang onto them.

Still, this year's Leafs squad will be feast or famine for fantasy owners, particularly those in re-draft formats. Phil Kessel is a top-10 pick, maybe even top-five depending on your format. James van Riemsdyk will be a top-12 goal scorer. Jonathan Bernier will win 30 games and move into the league's top-15 twine-tenders for the first time in his career. And in a few years, guys like Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner will become consistent, top-20 defenders…and maybe even better.

But buyer beware -- do not stretch to pick up any other Leaf for your fantasy team. Their performance just won't match the name value, and that means they'll often go earlier in your draft than they should. Buy in only if you can get good value.

The Big Guns

Phil Kessel, RW (RotoWire Position Rank*: #4): Kessel is a polarizing guy -- some fans love him while others say you can't build a team around him, either on the ice or in fantasy. We beg to differ, particularly in the fantasy arena. Phil the Thrill is one of the most consistent, elite players in the NHL. He has notched at least 20 goals in each of his last six seasons and would have had at least 30 in each if it weren't for the lockout. He's also rung up at least 30 assists in each of his last four seasons and year-over-year, he's a model of consistency in shots on goal, shooting percentage, power-play production and more. Surprisingly, he does it the hard way -- advanced metrics will show you that he creates all of this offense despite starting 37.8 percent of his shifts (2013-14) in the defensive zone. That's unheard of; he only started 28.4 percent of his shifts last season in the offensive zone, but finished sixth overall in scoring and fifth in goals. Just compare those start zones to Patrick Kane, who scored fewer points despite starting 44.3 percent of his shifts in the opponent's zone (and just 19.4 percent in his own). Forty goals and 95 points will come either this season or next for Mr. Kessel, perhaps earning him some respect around the league along the way.

*RotoWire Position Ranks reflected for points-based leagues*

James van Riemsdyk, LW (RotoWire Position Rank: #3): How many between-the-legs goals can JVR score this season? That patented move is going to get him decimated one day, but for now, opposing defenders have been neither big enough nor fast enough to teach him that lesson. Last season, Van Riemsdyk delivered career-best numbers in goals (30) and points (61), and that trend should continue in 2014-15. He might even deliver you 35 goals and reach the high-60s in points, including solid production on the top power-play unit. Draft him if you can.

Jonathan Bernier, G (RotoWire Position Rank: #23): A year ago, a goalie controversy swirled in the Big Smoke, but it didn't take long for Bernier to emerge as the clear-cut starter. The former backup to Jonathan Quick finished with 26-19-7 with one shutout, a 2.69 GAA and a .923 save percentage. Fast-forward a year, and there's once again a chance that Bernier will have to earn that top gig. James Reimer re-signed in Toronto this past summer and he told reporters that Leafs' brass told him there is a "definite opportunity" for him to win the starter's gig. Expect Bernier to record his first career 30-win season, mortar up a few more shutouts and lower that GAA. His save percentage was already the sixth-best in the NHL, so a straight repeat of that will be just fine.

On the Rise

Jake Gardiner, D (RotoWire Position Rank: #37): After spending the first half of 2013-14 in coach Randy Carlyle's doghouse, Gardiner finally broke the chain and was arguably the Leafs' best defender in the last month of the season. He picked up 12 points, including five goals, in his last 14 games, looking every part of an emerging stud. Now with a massive contract extension tucked in his jock, Gardiner is ready to take his game to the next level and it should happen this season. He'll get a shot at the spot on the top pairing vacated by Carl Gunnarsson and get a gig on the first power-play unit, too. He could deliver a 50-percent increase in scoring this season; a total of 45 points is certainly possible. It'll come with lots of mistakes, but the bottom line is simple: you can't get offense without taking some risks. We'll take the mistakes that come with that because the fantasy output will be downright delicious.

Nazem Kadri, C (RotoWire Position Rank: #34): Will Kadri's growth continue? The hype machine was on full display after he delivered 44 points in 48 games in the lockout-shortened 2012-13, but he couldn't carry that kind of production into last season. He did establish new career-bests in goals (20) and points (50), including 18 on the power play, but he had just nine points -- including five goals -- in 22 games after the Olympic break. He's still a wild card -- his plus-minus last season was horrible (minus-11), and he hasn't found a way to produce when the games get tough late in the season. Still, he's the Leafs' undisputed second-line center who'll see ice time on the second power-play unit. He'll toss his weight around and bring you respectable numbers in PIMs and hits, but don't be afraid to trade him if he gets off to hot start. We fully expect him to settle into a 50-to-60 point groove for the next few years, but a Leafs fan might overpay, thinking he's a 70-point stud.

Morgan Rielly, D (RotoWire Position Rank: #63): The training wheels are off -- the Leafs expect this kid to haul a heavy load this season, and he's more than up to the challenge. He has the best skillset on the Leafs' blue line, and his acceleration is as sweet as a Porsche. Rielly makes lots of high-percentage plays and he can recover and get back in the play when he doesn't. The Leafs will turn him loose as the quarterback on their second power-play unit. His even-strength ice time will be better insulated by the presence of two new veteran stay-at-home types, Stephane Robidas and Roman Polak. This season should be a nice stepping-stone to a high-octane future. Expect a decent jump in his output from last year, with the possibility of finishing among the league's top-30 scorers from the blue line. That sort of production would make him a must-own in standard formats and an even more valuable chip in dynasty formats.

Two to Watch

Tyler Bozak, C (RotoWire Position Rank: #70): When will Leaf fans accept Bozak as their top-line center? No, he doesn't fit the profile of a typical first-line stud pivot, but there are really only about 10 of those in the league. His detractors say he doesn't have the speed, talent or body type to be his team's best guy, but his career arc just continues to climb anyway. Last season, he delivered a career-best 49 points in 58 games -- that's 69 points prorated to a full season. He would have finished ahead of Ryan O'Reilly of the Avs at that rate. Then there's this intangible: linemate Phil Kessel plays his best hockey when his best friend, "Bozie", is on the ice with him. Here's a guy that many might choose to avoid, but you shouldn't. He's a 65-point guy if he stays healthy.

James Reimer, G (RotoWire Position Rank: #39): Reimer kissed and made up with Leafs management over the summer and signed a two-year contract extension in July. He even said he was told he has a "definite opportunity" to win the starter's job in camp. Realistically, Reimer's contract makes him valuable trade bait because Jonathan Bernier is the superior netminder. Reimer does somehow manage to stop pucks when he gets enough starts, but he really struggles to find his groove when he's not getting No. 1 minutes. He'll need to seriously improve on his 12-16-1 record, 3.29 GAA and .911 save percentage to get a real shot in Toronto. We just don't put much faith in him when it comes to our fantasy squad or yours, at least when he's wearing blue and white. But somewhere else, like Winnipeg? You might start to see the potential.

Don't Overrate

David Clarkson, RW (RotoWire Position Rank: #70): Can this guy get back to what made him successful? Clarkson's first season in Toronto can only be described as an abject failure. It started with a bone-headed, 10-game suspension right out of the gate, and was punctuated with injury after injury. When it was all said and done, Clarkson finished with an abysmal one point in his last 22 games. We haven't even talked about his awkward fit with every set of forwards his coach offered up. He failed in Toronto, in part because he succumbed to the bright lights and shiny allure of his hometown. He tried to be something he wasn't, and still isn't. He was successful in New Jersey when he got his nose dirty, ground guys into the wall, drove the net and carried a lunch pail to the rink every night. He'll slot into the lineup on the Buds' third line and he'll return to 20-plus goals and near-40 points if he gets back to his grinding ways. We think this summer will have provided him with perspective; we'll see if fall brings him linemates that fit. Draft him with caution, but snap him off the wire at the first sign of sandpaper.

Joffrey Lupul, LW (RotoWire Position Rank: 31): "Loops" isn't getting any younger, and he's certainly not getting any healthier. You can pretty much count on him missing 20 games a season, and that means you'll need to have a handcuff for him if you decide to buy in. We'd like him a lot more if he skated beside Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak -- his chemistry with Nazem Kadri is awkward at best. Count on him to score at a 60-point pace, but remember that injury risk, and the plus-minus drain that comes with that lack of chemistry.

Dion Phaneuf, D (RotoWire Position Rank: #28): Gone are the days of elite offense from Mr. Elisha Cuthbert. The much-maligned defender recorded just 31 points last season, but for good reason -- he was overused in defensive zone situations and always hopped over the boards against the opposition's best. He was just too tired to generate offense. The additions of Roman Polak and Stephane Robidas should allow the Leafs to cut back on Phaneuf's ice time, giving him a little breathing room to boost his points back to the 40-mark. He'll continue to lay hits and block shots -- he just can't stop himself from doing that. In addition, Phaneuf will surely man one point on the team's best power-play unit. All in all, he could become a top-20 defender (or better) on the back of 40 points, 200-plus hits and 150-plus blocked shots. He'll probably be on the board longer than guys who won't delivery nearly as much. Just don't stretch for him.

Top Prospects

William Nylander, C (RotoWire Prospects Rank: #24): Nylander is a human highlight reel. His creativity with the puck is unmatched in the 2014 draft class, and he can make the puck dance -- and opponents stumble -- with a deft sleight of hand. Add in elite skating and you have a near-perfect possession-style winger. He played last season for Modo alongside former NHLer and teammate Jeff Tambellini, who thinks Nylander could deliver 100 points in the NHL. That's heavy praise for a kid who already doesn't lack any confidence. Still, the son of former NHLer Michael Nylander has some serious work to do on his defensive game (think: find one and fast). But when he does, Nylander could become the next Henrik Zetterberg. He's a few seasons away from making a dent, but he's worth stashing in dynasty leagues.

Connor Brown, RW (RotoWire Prospects Rank: NR): Brown is a classic late-bloomer who has gone from being a sixth-round pick (156th overall) in 2012 to the OHL scoring champion and Player of the Year in 2013-14. At 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds, Brown needs to continue to work on his strength to shine in the pros, but he already oozes top-six skills and loves to compete, so his time should come. He'll be given every opportunity to show off his talents with the AHL Toronto Marlies and could compete for a job with the Leafs in a couple seasons.