This article is part of our Shots on Goal series.
Early Look - Top-9 Atlantic
With summer past the half-way mark, it's time to take an early glance at the NHL landscape and assess what the top three lines of each team might resemble after a summer of drafting, trading and free-agent signing. We will stress the even-strength lines, with occasional forays into possible power play (PP) deployments.
Boston Bruins:
Matt Beleskey - David Krejci - David Pastrnak
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - Brett Connolly
Loui Eriksson - Ryan Spooner - Jimmy Hayes
The B's top PP unit for the last 10 games featured 3 centers (Krejci, Bergeron, Spooner). They could afford that luxury with Carl Soderberg around. With Soderberg now in Colorado, they no longer have that luxury so Spooner will likely be dropped to the second unit to play center.
While Eriksson was also on that first unit, it wouldn't be a shock to see him usurped by Matt Beleskey, whom Boston made a $19 million investment in last month while not even trying to extend Eriksson (who is playing out his deal). Beleskey scored as many goals last season as the three prior seasons combined so don't go drafting Beleskey too early in thinking you're automatically going to get 20 goals, 35 points and 50 PIMs. The B's Pastrnak could thrive on that first unit, assuming the aforementioned shunning of Eriksson. The young Czech scored at an 18-goal/48-point clip last season (10 goals/27 points in 46 games). You can count on Marchand to pot 20-25 goals this coming season, but there will be another 25 goal scorer on the wing for Boston this season - will it be Pastrnak, Eriksson (22 goals last season), Beleskey, or Hayes (19 goals last season)? Strangely enough, I'd take Eriksson (pending UFA) if he can crack the top six and get some PP love.
The B's first PP unit could have Beleskey on the left, Pastrnak at right wing with one of Krejci or Bergeron at center and the other on the point. The second unit would feature Eriksson on the left wing and Spooner in the middle and with Hayes and Connolly competing for the right wing spot. Hayes' size (6-2/ 221) would seem suitable for screening enemy goalies. While the same height as Hayes, Connolly is about 40 lbs lighter. If the B's want a big body in front of the net during the man advantage Beleskey and Hayes both fit the physical profile. It would be absurd to continue to deploy 38-year-old defenseman Zdeno Chara in that role now.
Buffalo Sabres:
Evander Kane - Ryan O'Reilly - Tyler Ennis
Matt Moulson - Jack Eichel - Zemgus Girgensons
Marcus Foligno - Sam Reinart - Brian Gionta or Jamie McGinn
The Sabres are vastly improved from last season's horrid squad. Just look at how young and new they are at forward. There are three new names in their top 6 and possibly as many as five newcomers in the top 9. Kane and O'Reilly arrive as proven producers and Ennis quietly has put up three 20-goal seasons over the last four full NHL seasons and he's but 25. Ennis had a very good World Championship last May, earning a gold medal on a team that also featured O'Reilly. Ennis had four goals and six points in 10 games and was a plus-7 while O'Reilly had two goals and 11 points in 10 games and was an amazing plus-10. Kane has just turned 24 and has already played 361 NHL games. Moreover, he's averaged 25 goals and 82 PIMs per full season played. Sabres fans will love Kane's robust playing style and O'Reilly is unquestionably the best center that he's ever played with in the NHL.
Eichel, who easily would be a No. 1 overall pick in most years, should click with Moulson. Girgensons (who could flip-flop with Eichel between center and right wing) will provide the physical presence as well as protection for the rookie. Sam Reinhart is a future top-six forward but he may have to eventually switch to the wing with O'Reilly and Eichel expected to be the Sabres' No. 1 and No. 2 centers for the next seven years.
Detroit Red Wings:
Pavel Datsyuk (recovering from June 26th ankle surgery) is out until November so this is what the lines will likely look like in his absence:
Gustav Nyquist - Henrik Zetterberg - Justin Abdelkader
Tomas Tatar - Brad Richards - Darren Helm
Teemu Pulkinnen - Riley Sheahan - Tomas Jurco
Zetterberg scored only 17 goals last season despite playing 77 games. He finished 118th in the league. Thankfully for his owners, he ended up seventh in the NHL in assists with 49. Datsyuk scored nine more goals in 14 fewer games. Expect Zetterberg to come up into the mid-20's if they keep the two of them together and Datsyuk can remain healthy upon his November return.
Nyquist would face more attention on the first line but he deserves the spot while "Dats" is sidelined. When Datsyuk does return Nyquist would drop down and could form a dangerous duo alongside Tatar for Richards to amass points. Moreover, Richards plays the point on the power play. He could be a good discount acquisition for some fantasy leagues this season.
Abdelkader (23 goals, 44 points) really shined last season, making him especially attractive to leagues that count penalty minutes (72 PIMs).
Teemu Pulkinnen owned the AHL last year (34 goals in 46 games) and he's someone to watch in case another left winger is felled by injury.
Johan Franzen was crushed by a blindsided check vs. Edmonton back in early January and has yet to practice or play since. Franzen was quoted as saying that he'd had at least four concussions. With Franzen doing his best work in high traffic areas it's perhaps best that he call it a career.
Florida Panthers:
Jonathan Huberdeau - Nick Bjugstad - Jaromir Jagr
Jussi Jokinen - Alexander Barkov - Reilly Smith
Brandon Pirri - Dave Bolland - Vincent Trocheck
This is a scrappy team with some good young talent that is slowly developing. Alexander Barkov was rushed - the kid has two seasons in and will only turn 20 on Sept. 2, while Nick Bjugstad was allowed to develop in college for three years before becoming a full-time pro at 21. Bjugstad is the better player now but Barkov has more upside. Jagr's 18 points in 20 games was amazing but can he produce like that for the Panthers over an 82-game schedule? Perhaps 20 goals and 50 points would be realistic. Other than maybe Jagr or Jonathan Huberdeau, this team is a fantasy hockey wasteland at forward. Only Huberdeau (at 0.68) with 15 goals and 54 points had a better rate than 0.61 in points per game (ppg) last season among Florida forwards who dressed for more than 20 games.
Other than drafting Lawson Crouse 11th overall in June's NHL draft Florida has only added Reilly Smith in the offseason. The cats would be foolish to rush Crouse (see Barkov). While Smith is an upgrade over the departed Brad Boyes in two-way ability, Smith was just Boyes' equal in production last year (13 goals/40 points vs. Boyes' 14 goals/38 points).
Montreal Canadiens:
Max Pacioretty hurt a knee doing offseason workouts in early July. As a result of the setback he'll require 12 weeks of recovery, and is expected to miss training camp as well as the exhibition season. He'll be back sometime in mid-to-late October. This is what could transpire in his absence:
Alexander Semin - Tomas Plekanec - Brendan Gallagher
Alex Galchenyuk - David Desharnais - Zack Kassian
Devante Pelley-Smith - Lars Eller - Dale Weise
After Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec was the Habs' best forward last season. He's not a sexy player to own but who has a problem with 26 goals and 60 points in today's low-scoring NHL?
Montreal has added two new possible faces for their top six in Alexander Semin and Zack Kassian. While both have size, only Kassian uses his. Semin, who can play either wing, should definitely be penciled into the top 6 during the honeymoon phase (first 15-20 games). If he's dogging it and not scoring he'll be in the press box as a healthy scratch. Semin is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward guy and represents a late-round dart throw in most fantasy drafts. In leagues that count penalty minutes Kassian could be interesting if he sticks in the top six.
There's also the possibility that Galchenyuk gets a shot at center and is put with Semin after Pacioretty returns. This will be a highly fluid situation as the Habs are determined to increase their offensive output after finishing 20th in league scoring last year. Weise would drop out of the top 9 when Max returns while 20-year-old Jacob de la Rose's development may best be served playing top line minutes in the AHL until injuries start to mount on the parent club.
In a perfect world the Habs would have traded (or bought out) David Desharnais and signed Brad Richards in July. To be fair to Desharnais he has scored an average of 15 goals and 50 points over the past two seasons but he's simply too small (5-7/170) to be a top-six center in the postseason. Unless Galchenyuk quickly gels at center this team's biggest weakness will remain down the middle.
Ottawa Senators:
Clarke McCarthur - Kyle Turris - Mark Stone
Mike Hoffman - Mika Zibanejad - Bobby Ryan
Milan Michalek - Jean-Gabriel Pageau - Alex Chiasson/Curtis Lazar
The Senators bring back the same group that ended the season so strongly. Stone emerged over the last half of the season, scoring 47 points in 46 games. It's no coincidence that Turris also had a late surge to finish with almost identical numbers (Turris had 24 goals/64 points to Stone's 26 goals/64 points). Hoffman (27 goals/48 points) should be super motivated to prove that last season was no fluke after losing in arbitration and being awarded a one-year deal for $2 million.
The biggest concern may be Bobby Ryan, who was terrible last season (18 goals/54 points). It isn't just one year either. Since recording four consecutive 30-goal seasons from 2009-12, Ryan has scored just 52 goals in his last 194 games (covering 2013-15). He's played at a pace of 21.7 goals per game for the past three seasons. Hopefully the now-emerging Zibanejad (20 goals/46 points) and Hoffman can help bring him out of this 1000-day drop. Michalek (13 goals/34 points in 66 games) will be in the top six off and on, depending on the consistency of Hoffman and any injuries to the others. Like Hoffman, Alex Chiasson lost in arbitration. He'll have to hold off Curtis Lazar for the third line right wing spot. Eventually, the 20-year-old Lazar will probably take over as the third line center but it's Pageau's job to lose right now.
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Alex Killorn - Valtterri Filppula - Steven Stamkos
Ondrej Palat - Tyler Johnson - Nikita Kutcherov
Cedric Paquette - Brian Boyle - Ryan Callahan
The top 6 is set though Stamkos could go back to center. Alex Killorn's playoff performance was a coming-out party. Killorn's nine goals and 18 points in 26 postseason games amount to 26 goals and 57 points over an 82-game regular season. Isn't it supposed to be harder to score in the playoffs? This team's top-six is both very young and boasts five players worth drafting in fantasy leagues.
The Bolts could have a dangerous third line if they put youngsters Vladislav Namesnitkov (22) and Jonathan Drouin (20) with Ryan Callahan. Either of them would be worthy of instant-add status if injuries struck and a top 6 spot opened up.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
James van Riemsdyk - Tyler Bozak - Joffrey Lupul
Leo Komarov - Nazem Kadri - P.A. Parenteau
Shawn Matthias/Richard Panik - Peter Holland - Daniel Winnik/Marco Arcobello
The top three center spots and the top left wing gig are the only foregone conclusions at this early stage. Only one thing seems more certain, the sad sack Leafs will struggle to score this season without Phil Kessel. There are only about four legitimate (proven) top-six forwards here - JVR, Lupul (who's hurt all the time), Bozak, and Kadri. Kadri is being challenged by Leafs' management to go out and prove he deserves a big contract. His one-year deal should increase his focus and dedication. Parenteau used to be a top-six forward but he's scored just 22 goals and 55 points over the last two seasons combined while battling injuries and inconsistency. Still just 32 year old, Parenteau could have another 18-20 goal/40-45 point season in him if he gets decent power play time and stays healthy. Moreover, there is little in the way of talent at right wing on the Leafs and Babcock wanted him.
The third line has a long list of candidates at the wing but Winnik and Holland should both be on it. Richard Panik could be worth watching, as a top-six role would elevate him to roto consideration. Only 24, Panik has scored at every level. Local boy Shawn Matthias (Mississauga) is also in the top-9 consideration after netting 18 goals last season for Vancouver. Matthias is a big body (6-4, 220) who's coming off a career year goal-wise.
