This article is part of our Shots on Goal series.
Early Look Top-9: Metropolitan
By Peter Maingot, RotoWire Writer
With summer past the half-way mark, it's time to take an early glance at the NHL landscape and assess what the top three lines of each team might resemble after a summer of drafting, trading and free-agent signing. We will stress the even-strength lines, with occasional forays into possible power play (PP) deployments.
Carolina:
Jeff Skinner - Eric Staal - Elias Lindholm
Nathan Gerbe - Jordan Staal - Andrej Nestrasil
Chris Terry - Victor Rask - Riley Nash
With apologies to Andrej Nestrasil and Riley Nash, this team needs some help at right wing. As of mid-August Brad Boyes, Mike Santorelli, Lee Stempniak are all available. Here's some exciting news - Jiri Tlusty has not closed the door on a return to Carolina. They'd take him back, wouldn't they? This team has zero depth and has only five legitimate top six forwards (sorry Andrej). Twenty-year-old forward Elias Lindholm (17 goals/39 points) could be worth a late-round flyer on in fantasy drafts if he can play on the first line and get sneak onto the first power play unit.
Eric Staal was a huge disappointment last season, and it's not a one-year aberration either. Staal had 23 goals and 54 points last season in 77 games while the year before he scored 21 goals and 61 points in 79 games. Staal's 115 points in 156 games (.737 ppg) in the last two seasons demonstrates a significant decline from the previous two seasons - 123 points in 130 games (.946 ppg). The captain has gone from a 78-point player to a 60-point player in the last two seasons. Don't waste a top pick on him like so many did last year. Just because he makes $9.25 million doesn't mean he'll put up 75 points again. Moreover, after scoring 30 or more goals per season in five of six years from 2005-06 to 2010-11, he's only managed 24, 21, and 23 goals, respectively, in each of the last three full (82-game) NHL seasons.
Jeff Skinner is still just 23, despite having five NHL seasons on his resume. The former Rookie of the Year was trade bait this summer but GM Ron Francis was unable to find a taker for a player with a concussion history and a $6 million per season price tag. Skinner will look to rebound from a disastrous 2014-15 season where he managed just 13 goals and 31 points in 77 games. He'd scored 33 goals and 54 points the previous season in six less games. Again, don't draft the name, draft the player. He's interesting as a depth roto winger with huge upside. Jordan Staal was hurt most of last season and isn't really roto relevant in standard 12-14 team leagues. The younger Staal had six goals and 24 points in 42 games and in his three years as a Hurricane he's scored just 0.540 ppg (95 points in 176 games). That's a 44-point pace over 82 games. Hopefully, we can all do better in standard formats.
An interesting story in camp will be the performance of Sergey Tolchinsky, who's tiny in stature (5-8/165) but was huge for Sault Ste Maire last season (31 goals/95 points in 61 games) in the Ontario Hockey League. While the Canes could use an infusion of creativity and skill at forward, Tolchinsky's size could work against him. Nevertheless, he's a name to remember.
Columbus:
Brandon Saad - Ryan Johansen - Cam Atkinson
Boone Jenner - Brandon Dubinsky - Nick Foligno
Scott Hartnell - Alexander Wennberg - David Clarkson
Expectations have never been higher for this franchise and they've never iced a top-9 like this before. The addition of Brandon Saad elevates the talent base of the first line and creates more scoring depth in the top-9 overall. In addition to quality, Saad also adds to the quantity. Columbus now has seven forwards in their top-9 that are over six-feet tall and at least 200 lbs. That's a big group. Don't let their size fool you into thinking this team is slow. It isn't. They are big, fast, and young. Saad is looking at a career-high if he sticks to the first line with Ryan Johansen centering him and if he can crack their first PP unit. We like his chances in accomplishing both. Foligno is coming off a career season with 31 goals and 73 points. The gritty forward nabbed a huge contract after the monster year. Prior to this past season he'd scored 39 goals combined over the three previous seasons (in 197 games) - that's 0.198 goals per game (gpg) compared to 0.392 gpg in 2014-15. He essentially doubled his goal rate. His best output before last year was 18 goals and his career-high in points was 47 (and that wasn't even in the same season). While the timing is interesting he's not the kind of player to sit back on his laurels. His game is all about energy, hustle and hard work.
It will be interesting to see the order in which the top Columbus forwards are picked in fantasy drafts. Johansen would seem to be the first guy, then Saad or Foligno? Johansen's 26 goals and 71 points in 82 games last season are all the more impressive when you consider that he held out of training camp and exhibition play due to a contract squabble. Right-wing Cam Atkinson could really go off with Saad and Johansen so be sure to put him on your cheat sheets. Hartnell, despite third-line deployment at times last season, still managed to play quite a bit on the first PP unit (56% of total minutes in last 10 games) and finished with 28 goals and 60 points. Saad's arrival could cost "Harts" power-play minutes so keep an eye out for that. Dubinsky (36 points in 47 games last year) should net 15-20 goals and 45-50 points if he can play 76+ games like he's done in three of the last four full NHL seasons. Boone Jenner could still get some second unit power-play minutes but Saad's arrival hurts his chances at a breakthrough season. Meanwhile David Clarkson has to be happy about being out of Toronto.
New Jersey:
Mike Cammalleri - Adam Henrique - Kyle Palmieri
Patrik Elias - Travis Zajac - Sergey Kalinin
Stefan Matteau/Tuomo Ruutu - Stephen Gionta - Ryane Clowe/Ruutu
The Devils were 28th in the league in scoring last year with just 2.15 goals per game. The good news is that they have two new additions to their top six. Former Duck Kyle Palmieri (14 goals/29 points in 57 games) and former KHLer Sergey Kalinin (12 goals/28 points in 55 games) may not be big names but at least they're both 24 with upside - unlike last year's "big-name past their due date" wingers Michael Ryder and Martin Havlat.
Even though the two new additions offer promise don't expect much fantasy love from New Jersey: Henrique's 43 points and Cammalleri's 27 goals led the team last season. Sadly Ryane Clowe's concussion symptoms have yet to subside. Clowe may have played his last game. This team will need better fortune than that if they are to be competitive this season.
NY Islanders:
Josh Bailey/Nikolay Kulemin - Jonathan Tavares - Kyle Okposo
Anders Lee - Frans Nielsen/Brock Nelson - Ryan Strome
Kulemin/Bailey - Nielsen/Mikhail Grabovski - Grabovski/Michael Grabner
The Isles are a fantasy friendly team, loaded with talent in their top-9. Of course it all starts with Jonathan Tavares, who finished second in the league in points and fourth in goals (38 goals/86 points in 82 games). Overall, seven of their forwards had at least 14 goals and 41 points. Kyle Okposo had the second highest points and points per game per with 51 points in 60 games while the up and coming Ryan Strome had 17 goals and 50 points in 81 games. Just turned 22, Strome is coming into his own as a gritty top-six two-way player, finishing with a plus-minus rating of +23 with 47 PIMs. He has 70-point upside if he can crack the first line.
It should be noted that there are several interchangeable parts on the top nine. At various times last season Nikolay Kulemin (15 goals/31 points) played first line minutes, as did Anders Lee (25 goals/41 points) as well as Stome (Okposo missed 22 games). Injuries happen and this team has both the talent and depth to deal with it. Lee is an interesting player to watch in roto hockey. In a goal-starved league Lee has a total of 35 goals in 100 career games. That projects to 29 goals per 82 games. Brock Nelson only scored five goals in his last 43 games so he has zero job security on the top-six. Keep an eye out in training camp to see who nabs the first line wing spots alongside future league MVP Tavares.
NY Rangers:
Rick Nash - Derick Brassard - Mats Zuccarello
Chris Kreider - Derek Stepan - Kevin Hayes
Jesper Fast/Emerson Etem - Dominic Moore/Jarret Stoll - J.T. Miller
The Rangers no longer have Martin St. Louis nor Carl Hagelin. St. Louis retired and Hagelin was moved in a salary dump to the Ducks for Emerson Etem - who has yet to prove he's a top-9 guy. The good news is that Mats Zuccarello is back and should be completely recovered from the frightening head fracture/brain contusion that he suffered during the playoffs. He'll have a chance to rack up good numbers playing right wing on the first line. Unless the Blueshirts flip Nash to the right side, Zuccarello should be the first line right wing.
J.T. Miller (33 points in 114 NHL games) and Jesper Fast (14 points in 69 games), two other projected top-9 wingers, are relatively unproven so look for Kevin Hayes to play some right wing. The late-summer addition of center Jarret Stoll allows the Rangers to move Hayes to the wing. If the youngsters (Fast, Etem) struggle at left wing in camp or exhibition play, it wouldn't be surprising to see both Dominic Moore and the newly-signed Stoll play at times together on the third line. Moore's ability to play quality third line hockey and Hayes' ability to play all three forward positions (with top-line upside) should also help the Rangers when dealing with their lack of depth at forward. Moreover, Hayes could become a draft day value (based on current consensus) if he plays right wing on the second line. Moore and Stoll would compete for third and fourth line center. With Nash also able to play either wing, the Rangers have lots of flexibility as far as moving pieces amidst their top three lines. There will be ample minutes both at even strength and on the power play for their top six forwards while Stoll could see some time on the point on the second power-play unit, as he has been used in that position at various times in his career for both Edmonton and Los Angeles.
Philadelphia:
Michael Raffl - Claude Giroux - Jakub Voracek
Brayden Schenn - Sean Couturier - Wayne Simmonds
Matt Read/RJ Umberger - Scott Laughton/Vincent Lecavalier - Sam Gagner
The Flyers have too many pieces to fit into their top-9, mainly because they have two overpaid vets - Vincent Lecavalier and R.J. Umberger - whose contracts make them virtually impossible to trade. First things first, who plays first line left wing? Michael Raffl, Brayden Schenn, or Matt Read? Keep a close on this at training camp/exhibition. After the first line left wing debate, Couturier is the x-factor here. They want him to be their No. 2 center but is he good enough offensively? They've never given him a full season with talented wingers like Schenn and Simmonds before. If Couturier falters offensively they could always move Schenn back to center and move Couturier to wing or drop Couturier to third line center. This is also big year for Schenn, who's playing out his current deal.
In a similar vein, Sam Gagner has a one year audition to impress the Flyers but he'll be hard pressed to do so in a third line role. It would likely have to take an injury at RW to bring him back to roto relevance, as they really like Scott Laughton. Laughton's first round pedigree and the Flyers' investment in him along with Gagner's woeful face-off efficiency (career 45%) effectively makes Gagner No.5 on the center depth chart.
Pittsburgh:
David Perron - Sidney Crosby - Phil Kessel
Sergei Plotnikov - Evgeni Malkin - Patric Hornqvist
Chris Kunitz/Matt Cullen - Nick Bonino - Pascal Dupuis/Eric Fehr
Could Phil Kessel have found a better landing spot? No other team boasts the 1-2 punch at center that Pittsburgh does. Kessel will be a top-20 pick this year, as so few NHLers can score 40 goals these days. Kessel has scored 36 goals or more in a season three times so the odds are decent that he could crack 40 goals playing with either center at even strength and with both centers on the power play (plus Letang).
Anybody who drafted Chris Kunitz last year paid a fairly high price (3rd-5th rd in most drafts). No matter the round you got him in you sure as heck were expecting more than 17 goals and 40 points if he could play in 74 games. The goal total was the killer. His four previous seasons' goal total were 35, 22, 26, and 23. Kunitz is a real wild card this year, as are the other two left wings that will play in the top-9 this year: David Perron and Sergei Plotnikov. Plotnikov is a big winger (6-2/190) who scored 15 goals in the KHL last year then earned a silver medal for Team Russia in Prague this spring at the Worlds. Expect Plotnikov to at least start with Malkin. That leaves Kunitz battling Perron for the left wing spot on Crosby's line and the vanquished to play third line with Nick Bonino at center and one of Eric Fehr, Matt Cullen or Pascal Dupuis on the other wing. Perron was a disappointment when he joined the Pens in early January, scoring 12 goals and 22 points in 43 games. For what it's worth, Perron is just 27 while Kunitz will be 36 in September. Don't jump on either too early. Dupuis is trying to come back from a blood clot condition so the Pens have added some good depth for their bottom six at an affordable rate. Fehr and Cullen are proven pros who can provide insurance for the third line if Dupuis has a setbak and/or if Plotnikov struggles playing on the smaller ice. Moreover, Cullen has extensive experience playing the point on the power play and could see minutes there on the second unit. The Pens have more depth than last year at forward. It's their defense that will be the wild card this season.
Washington:
Alex Ovechkin - Nicklas Backstrom - T.J. Oshie
Marcus Johansson - Evgeny Kuznetsov - Justin Williams
Jason Chimera - Andre Burakovsky - Tom Wilson/Stanislav Galiev
The Capitals gave up grit and size at right wing (Joel Ward, Troy Brouwer) in order to increase their speed and offensive ability at the position (TJ Oshie, Justin Williams). It's certainly both fan friendly and fantasy friendly.
Oshie seems a perfect fit for Ovechkin and Backstrom, as a combination creator and finisher, while Williams is the proven winner to help guide the young and emerging Evgeny Kuznetsov. Kuznetsov had five goals and seven assists for 12 points in his final 15 regular season games. He continued playing well in the playoffs, managing five goals and seven points in 14 playoff games. It must be noted that the young Russian played his first two pro seasons in the KHL and only came to North America as a 21-year-old two years ago. Look for his scoring pace - so far 46 points in 97 games or 0.474 ppg - to spike up by a good margin this season.
If Brooks Laich could ever stay healthy, Andre Burakovsky could usurp Marcus Johansson at second line left-wing instead of having to play center. Burakovsky still needs to add weight to his 6-1 frame but he has definite top-six skills. Johansson had a decent season last year with 20 goals and 47 points and he'll be eager to prove last season wasn't a fluke, as he plays on a one-year deal. Johansson has only 65 goals and 186 points in 345 career games. Before last season's 20-goal outburst, he'd managed just 28 goals in his past 194 games. After missing just four games over three seasons between 2009-10 and 2011-12, Laich has missed 86 games over the past three seasons (212 games).
Jakub Vrana is someone to keep tabs on in training camp and exhibition play. Drafted 13th overall last year, Vrana played as an 18-year-old in the Swedish League last season where he scored 12 goals and 24 points in 44 games. Like Vrana, Riley Barber is another interesting young right winger in the Caps' system. Barber, 21, plays at Miami of Ohio and scored 20 goals and 40 points in 38 games last season. In the two years that he played for Team USA at the World Junior Championships, Barber scored a combined seven goals and 12 points in 12 games. Between 23-year-old Stanislav Galiev (25 goals/45 points in 65 AHL games), Vrana and Barber, the Caps may have Justin Williams' eventual replacement already in the system.
