Matt Dumba

After a 10-year career with the Wild, Dumba is entering his first season with Arizona. He's coming off the worst offensive year he's produced in the NHL; in 79 games, the 29-year-old tallied just four goals and 14 points, the lowest he's scored in either category since his 13-game rookie debut in 2013-14. He also laid out 104 hits and blocked a career-high 116 shots. Dumba's offensive numbers have been disappointing for several years now, due to both performance and injuries. Since recording a career-high 50 points in 2017-18, he's failed to eclipse the 30-point mark in five straight seasons. Dumba will see a larger role in Arizona, including some power-play time after failing to record a point with the man advantage last year. A 30-point season is possible with additional volume, but his ceiling remains limited.

Dumba posted 50 points in the 2017-18 season, but hasn't been able to crack the 30-point plateau in four seasons since. Part of that is due to the fact he is seemingly constantly injured. He missed 25 games a year ago and has posted just five points with the man advantage in each of the last two campaigns. Dumba's hit and block totals have always been middling for a defenseman, so there isn't a ton of upside here if he isn't putting up points on a semi-consistent basis. The Wild have another capable power-play quarterback in Jared Spurgeon, so there's no guarantee Dumba is primed for a rebound even if he can shake the injury bug. Don't pay for past production.

Dumba has seen his offensive production fall off a cliff over the past two seasons. After posting 72 points in 114 games from 2017-18 to 2018-19, Dumba has since generated just 45 points in his past 120 regular-season games. His time with the man advantage was down 44 seconds per game in 2020-21 (1:59) when compared to his best year, and while Dumba continues to fire pucks on goal at a high rate, the two lowest shooting percentages of his career have come in the past two campaigns. Toss in Minnesota's decision to sign Alex Goligoski to a one-year deal this offseason, and it's difficult to bet on Dumba as anything more than a mid-tier fantasy asset in 2021-22.

Dumba returned to full health in 2019-20, but his 24-point output was nowhere near the 50 points he rattled off in 2017-18. The first-round pick from 2012 can be considered an offensive defenseman, but it's looking more and more like his ceiling will be 35-to-40 points going forward. Dumba will likely skate in a second-pairing role with ample power-play time in 2020-21, but it's tough to expect the 26-year-old to return to his peak. Fantasy managers can find comfort in the fact that he'll usually contribute in some way even if he doesn't score -- he had 98 hits and 88 blocked shots in 69 contests last year and has never shied away from using his body.

A ruptured chest muscle wiped out 50 games from Dumba's 2018-19 campaign and ultimately required surgery. The seventh-overall pick in 2012 flashed fantasy promise before that, however, notching 22 points (12 on the power play) in 32 games. His physical presence doesn't go unnoticed, either, as he's racked up 375 hits and has been a plus-25 in the past four seasons. Possessing a cannon for a shot, the 24-year-old's name should be called on the power play often next season, opening the door for point production. Dumba is expected to be ready for training camp, so fantasy owners should expect big things in 2019-20 barring any setbacks healthwise.

The seventh overall pick in 2012 has finally blossomed into a No. 1 defenseman. Dumba reached the 50-point mark last year while recording triple digits in both hits and blocked shots, all career highs, and having Ryan Suter as a mentor over the last few seasons has paid huge dividends in terms of settling down his game. The 24-year-old may not have reached his ceiling yet, either. While he set a career high last year in ice time he still played fewer than 24 minutes a night, and with Suter gracefully beginning to show his age, Dumba's workload will continue rising. Just one year after the franchise dodged a bullet by leaving him unprotected in the expansion draft, they made it clear that Dumba is a central part of the Wild's present and future, inking him to a five-year, $30 million deal.

Despite setting new career bests in goals (11), assists (23), rating (plus-15) and average ice time (20:20) last season, Dumba was surprisingly left unprotected from the expansion draft by the Wild, who have never seemed to truly appreciate what their 2012 first-round pick has to offer. The Golden Knights didn't take him, and the Wild will probably thank them for that even if Dumba leaves town after (or during) this season. The knock against Dumba has been that he doesn't always play within himself, taking unnecessary risks and putting himself in bad situations; however, saw his offense tick up in 2016-17 despite taking fewer shots, and he laid more hits and blocked more shots while cutting down on his giveaways. Still only 23, he’s got room to keep developing, and he’s established himself as Minnesota’s No. 3 defenseman behind Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon. Dumba has the upside to develop into a workhorse on the blue line, and with another increase in ice time (along with his typical power-play role) likely this year, he’s in great position to crack 40 points for the first time.

Dumba’s first full NHL season brought us double-digit goals, and his dozen power-play points represented nearly half his total production. The seventh overall pick in 2012 has all the tools you look for in an offensive defenseman – he can skate, he can shoot, and he’s playing an increasingly physical game. He enters his age-22 season poised for a bigger role and a potentially major breakout, as last year’s 10 goals and 26 points came while the tantalizing young blueliner averaged only 16:50 of ice time. Dumba is still not a polished defender, which may prevent him from racking up major minutes this year; his point total will depend on how big a role he enjoys, so monitor his ice time carefully.

Dumba, the seventh overall pick in the 2012 NHL draft, saw his first significant playing time in the NHL last season and showed glimpses of becoming a productive scorer. He emerged in the second half of the season with nine points in his last 25 games. His booming shot will get him time on the team's top power play unit. He'll need to improve on the defensive end to win a role among the top two defensemen pairings, but he's a potential breakout candidate in his second full season in Minnesota.

Dumba has been a force on the ice at every level he's played. He has a strong shot at making the parent club, but there's going to be stiff competition from a handful of young defensemen that will also get a chance at claiming one of the open spots in Minnesota. Dumba could surprise and have a stellar rookie year, but he could also spend a significant amount of time playing in the AHL as well. He's not draftable in redraft leagues this season, but if he starts getting regular time with Minnesota, keep an eye on him. He has serious offensive upside and could prove to be a key waiver pickup.

Dumba, the Wild’s 2012 first-round pick, played most of the season for WHL Red Deer, recording 42 points in 62 games. He could make the Wild roster this season and has upside even at age 19 as he moves the puck adroitly and packs a massive point shot. Watch him in training camp before you add him to your re-draft league cheat sheet.

Big fights, big goals, big personality – that’s Mathew Dumba, the most exciting offensive defenseman in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Not only can he carry the puck end-to-end, he moves the puck adroitly and packs a massive point shot. And then there’s the swagger – his hits are enough to knock the molars out of a guy’s mouth. He profiles like a shorter, but better skating (and smarter) Dion Phaneuf. He needs to bulk up before he can be effective in the NHL. But he’s going to be very, very good once he arrives. Stash him in deep keeper formats and wait -- he could arrive in two or three years.