This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 309 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 309 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 309 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight Championship
(C) Jon Jones (27-1-0, 1NC) v. Stipe Miocic (20-4-0)
DK Salaries: Jones ($9,500), Miocic ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Jones (-700), Miocic (+500)
These two were scheduled to headline MSG almost exactly a year ago before Jones withdrew due to injury. Stipe elected not to stay on the card. The UFC is going back to the well despite the fact Tom Aspinall has won and defended the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship since the originally scheduled meeting last year. This is just one man's opinion, but it's impossible to market a heavyweight title fight right now and not have Aspinall involved.
Jones last fought in March 2023. Prior to that, it was February 2020. So we're going on two fights in almost five years. He made his heavyweight debut in his last bout and dominated Ciryl Gane in winning the vacant title. The fight lasted a shade over two minutes, by which point Jones had already landed two takedowns in addition to the guillotine choke that closed the show. Jon is now 37 years of age, but he's arguably the most gifted fighter in the history of the sport. He was always the best athlete at light heavyweight, so he's obviously going to be the best athlete in a higher weight class despite his advanced age. Aspinall is the only guy in the division that can come remotely close to matching him in that area.
Stipe turned 42 years of age in August. He last fought in March 2021, a second-round knockout loss to Francis Ngannou in which he dropped the championship. His last win came in August 2020, a unanimous decision victory over Daniel Cormier. I have less than zero idea what to expect from Miocic at this stage of his career. He was always an above-average athlete for the heavyweight division, but he's going to be lapped by Jones in that category, and that's before taking into account the age and time off.
Jones overwhelmed Gane with his grappling. I can't see him doing that to Stipe. Sure, he might pick up a handful of takedowns, but Miocic has never been submitted in 24 professional fights, and he's a huge man. I don't expect Jones to ragdoll him around with little to no resistance.
Stipe should try to keep this standing, but then he's going to run into the same issue as just about very other opponent -- that being Jones will enter with a four-inch reach edge. The master of using both distance and his long frame to his advantage, Jon is the crisper striker and better athlete. If this turns into a prolonged kickboxing match, I could see Jones winning easily and I could also see it being very boring.
Jones is obviously the pick, but there's not a heck of a lot you can do at a $9,500 salary. I can definitely envision a scenario where not a lot happens and it goes the distance. Aspinall would force Jon to come out of his comfort zone some. I'm not sure that's the case with Stipe.
From a DraftKings standpoint, I would rather pay up a bit and roll with Bo Nickal or Mauricio Ruffy in my lineup. I just think there's more upside. You're going to have to sacrifice all over the place to fit Jones in, and I don't think the risk is worth the reward, even if he wins easily.
THE PICK: Jones
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Charles Oliveira (34-10-0, 1NC) v. Michael Chandler (23-8-0)
DK Salaries: Oliveira ($9,000), Chandler ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-250), Chandler (+220)
This is a rematch of a May 2021 fight which Oliveira won via second-round knockout. It's also scheduled for five rounds if needed, although I doubt it goes the distance.
On the surface, Oliveira's 1-2 record in his past three fights is cause for concern, and it's most definitely an issue in terms of the rankings, but those two losses came against Islam Makhachev in a 155-pound title fight and to Arman Tsarukyan via split decision his last time out. Charles nearly submitted Arman on multiple occasions and looked quite strong in a bout in which few gave him a chance of competing. At age 35 and closing in on upwards of 50 pro bouts, time is running out on Oliveira despite the fact he still has plenty of gas left in the tank, but he's still a huge threat.
Chandler enters in considerably worse shape. He'll be 39 years of age next April and is just 1-4 in his past four fights. Again, the losses have come against elite competition in Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje and Oliveira, but Chandler's last win over someone other than Tony Ferguson came back in January 2021, and that's obviously cause for major concern.
A ton happened in the first fight between the two despite the fact it lasted just 5:19. Chandler landed a huge knockdown early on and seemed to be on the verge of winning, but couldn't close the show. That allows Charles to come back and earn the the stoppage himself early in Round 2.
Chandler definitely has more power, but I have far more confidence in Oliveira's chances of surviving a wild brawl, which is almost certainly what this fight is going to turn into.
I'd like Michael's chances much more if he just took his time and displayed a bit more fight IQ. Yet, at this stage of his career and given all the success he's had in the past, that's not going to change this late in the game.
Chandler is also the better pure wrestler, but Oliveira has the most submission victories in UFC history at 16 and is literally the last guy on the roster you want to be rolling around on the mat with. Chandler has only been submitted once in his career, however, which leads me to think we're probably looking at another stand-up brawl.
All things considered, I'd side with Oliveira, but the price is just way too high.
I would think a fair Vegas line here would be something like Oliveira -150, or -175, tops. Chandler is a major threat early on and we've see Charles in trouble in the past.
The value is just too high on the underdog side in a bout with a ton of different variables going on.
THE PICK: Chandler
Women's Flyweight
Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) v. Karine Silva (18-4-0)
DK Salaries: Araujo ($7,000), Silva ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Araujo (+225), Silva (-280)
Four fights into her UFC run, Silva looks like a potential future title challenger. She's 4-0 over that span, with first-round submission wins over Poliana Botelho, Ketlen Souza and Maryna Moroz, in addition to a unanimous decision over Ariane Lipski her last time out.
A veteran of the division, Araujo is probably fighting for her job. She's 1-3 in her past four fights dating back to October 2022 and each of her last nine fights overall have seen the final bell. Set to turn 38 years of age just days after this event takes place, time appears to be just about up for the Brazilian.
Araujo has some desirable traits. She's tough and has shown an ability to pile up the volume on the feet. That's all well and good, but that last part is largely negated by how often she gets hit. Araujo lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.96 per minute. The lone bit of good news is that her durability has held up, with just one knockout loss in her pro career.
I've been very impressed with the physicality with which Silva fights. She's landed at least one takedown in each of her four UFC bouts. She possesses a well-rounded skill set with no noticeable holes in her game. I expect her to try to overwhelm Araujo on the feet, but she most definitely has some grappling to fall back upon in the event of trouble. That's what I like to see.
That said, I wish the UFC pushed her a bit harder here. I have Araujo rated on the about the same level as Lipski and Souza. I'm not sure this is a real significant step up in competition, and I'm not convinced we are going to know a whole lot about her future potential regardless of the result.
Araujo's price is intriguing, but I have several other underdogs I like on the card considerably more, and I definitely think she is trending in the wrong direction. Give me Silva by decision.
THE PICK: Silva
Middleweight
Bo Nickal (6-0-0) v. Paul Craig (17-8-1)
DK Salaries: Nickal ($9,800), Craig ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Nickal (-1000), Craig (+650)
The UFC continues the ultimate slow play with Nickal, arguably the brightest prospect in the history of the sport.
Nickal has had three official fights with the company, in addition to two on Dana White's Contender Series. He has won all five via stoppage (four submissions, one knockout), including four in Round 1. Cody Brundage lasted 3:38 into Round 2 in Nickal's last fight, the longest of his pro career to date. Bo will be 29 years of age in January.
Look, I understand the desire to not rush him and have it potentially backfire, but surely there was some middle ground out there between and elite opponent and Craig.
Never one to turn down a fight, Craig has seen some tough competition in recent years, and that's reflected in his record. He's fresh off back-to-back stoppage defeats to Caio Borralho (knockout) and Brendan Allen (submission) and is 1-4 in his last five fights dating back to July 2022. I'm sure he's going to get a nice payday here on the main card of a Madison Square Garden pay-per-view, but it also appears to be a lock he will be handed his third straight lopsided defeat. I wonder if the company has guaranteed him another fight regardless of this result.
A former three-time NCAA National Champion wrestler at Penn State, Nickal has elite explosiveness and grappling. The numbers are irrelevant because his fights are so short, but he's averaging 7.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. Toss in Craig's woeful 37 percent takedown defense, and you can see where this is heading.
Bo's striking is a work in progress. That said, he's better than Craig in that area and it wouldn't shock me at all if he tries to make some headway on the feet early on in hopes of getting reps inside the octagon.
Yet when push comes to shove, he's going to force Craig to the mat and go to work. Paul has pulled off a few miracle submissions over the years and he's going to need another to emerge victorious here.
The price tag on Nickal is massive, and deservedly so. That's not going to change until the bump up in competition comes. It's anyone's guess when the UFC will pull the trigger with that.
Until then, you know what to do.
THE PICK: Nickal
Middleweight
Chris Weidman (16-7-0) v. Eryk Anders (16-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Weidman ($7,700), Anders ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Weidman (+120), Anders (-140)
Now 40 years of age, Weidman undoubtedly extended his career with a win over B. Silva in Atlantic City in late-March. It was his first victory since August 2020. Weidman has had countless injuries over the years and is a shell of his former self. One would think with this fight taking place at Madison Square Garden it would be the perfect spot for a retirement bout for the Long Island native, but there's been no such talk, at least pre-fight. I still wouldn't be totally shocked if Weidman left his gloves in the center of the Octagon afterwards regardless of the result.
Anders finds himself in a somewhat similar spot at 37 years old and barely treading water. He's lost three of five, although he is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jamie Pickett in March. A former Division I football player at the University of Alabama, Anders relied on his athleticism for success early in his UFC run. He doesn't have anywhere near the injury history of Weidman, but neither guy can fight the same style as their heyday and expect to be successful.
The Silva fight looks like an outlier for Weidman especially at this stage of his career. Never a big power puncher, Chris landed a knockdown and closed with a 75-30 edge in significant strikes landed. He connected on 1-of-4 takedowns. Weidman's issue in the latter stages of his career is that his takedowns haven't been landing and he isn't effective enough on the feet to make up for it. Anders has always possessed solid takedown defense, stuffing 79 percent of the tries coming his way.
I certainly wouldn't call Anders a technical striker, but I think he can walk through whatever Weidman throws his way. He's big and strong and should be able to pin Chris along the cage for long stretches at a time. If the referee allows Anders to work from that position and doesn't separate the two easily, Weidman could be in trouble.
I don't love backing Anders in this spot, and Weidman potentially getting some help from the judges in a fight likely to go the distance is definitely worrisome, but I think he can close the distance between the two, hold on tight, and grind out a decision.
That said, I don't love either play from a DraftKings standpoint because I expect a slow-paced fight in which notable offense is difficult to come by.
THE PICK: Anders
OTHER BOUTS
Lightweight
Mauricio Ruffy (10-1-0) v. James Llontop (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Ruffy ($9,600), Llontop ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Ruffy (-750), Llontop (+525)
THE PICK: Ruffy
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez (19-5-0) v. Marcus McGhee (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Martinez ($7,800), McGhee ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Martinez (+100), McGhee (-140)
THE PICK: McGhee
Lightweight
Jim Miller (37-18-0, 1NC) v. Damon Jackson (23-7-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Miller ($7,600), Jackson ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Miller (+140), Jackson (-170)
THE PICK: Miller
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura (25-9-0) v. Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Tybura ($8,200), Diniz ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Tybura (-120), Diniz (+100)
THE PICK: Tybura
Welterweight
Mickey Gall (7-6-0) v. Ramiz Brahimaj (10-5-0)
DK Salaries: Gall ($8,300), Brahimaj ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Gall (-125), Brahimaj (+105)
THE PICK: Brahimaj
Welterweight
Bassil Hafez (9-3-1) v. Oban Elliott (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hafez ($7,400), Elliott ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Hafez (+195), Elliott (-240)
THE PICK: Elliott
Women's Flyweight
Veronica Hardy (9-4-1) v. Eduarda Moura (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Hardy ($8,700), Moura ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Hardy (-150), Moura (+125)
THE PICK: Hardy
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 309 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
