This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 313 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 313 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 313 with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight Championship
(C) Alex Pereira (12-2-0) v. Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($8,300), Ankalaev ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-120), Ankalaev (+100)
Now 37 years old, Pereira will return to the Octagon for the first time since last October and will be making his fourth defense of his light heavyweight crown. He's a perfect 5-0 since moving to 205 pounds, with knockout wins over Jiri Prochazka (twice), Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree, in addition to a split-decision win over Jan Blachowicz in his 205-pound debut. The division has virtually no depth, particularly up top, and it could be smooth sailing for Alex for quite a while if he is able to get past Ankalaev.
That figures to be easier said than done, however. Ankalaev was submitted by Paul Craig in his UFC debut back in March 2018. He's undefeated (11-0-1, 1NC) since and more than deserving of another title shot. Ankalaev fought Blachowicz for the vacant title in December 2022 and the bout ended in a split draw. It was a terrible break for Magomed, who deserved to get his hand raised. He'll get his chance at redemption Saturday.
Pereira has primarily been successful since moving up to light heavyweight because his ridiculous power is still a difference-maker. The UFC has matched him up against only strikers outside of Blachowicz, and he's taken advantage. Not only does Pereira have power, but he has excellent technical striking skills and extremely underrated durability. He possesses the skill set to throw down with his opposition, eat a handful of shots in return, and come out victorious.
Ankalaev is an interesting opponent from a stylistic standpoint. He most definitely has power. Not as much as Pereira, but Magomed does have 10 career wins via knockout. That said, he's low volume. He's never landed more than 78 significant strikes (twice) in his UFC career. For comparison's sake, Pereira put up 127 against Rountree, 91 in his first fight with Israel Adesanya, and 108 in an easy win over Bruno Silva. I'm not buying the fact that Ankalaev is going to come in and outwork Pereira on the feet. He's never really done it before.
Ankalaev is going to have the edge in the grappling department, but do we really think he's going spam takedowns against Pereira? He's averaging 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's landed five total takedowns in his past seven fights. I could see Magomed trying to steal a tight round with a late shot, but I don't expect him to spend a ton of time in top position.
Pereira's greatest struggle at 205 pounds -- the Blachowicz fight -- was the result of Jan going 3-of-8 on takedowns and picking up 7:32 worth of control time. That was a three-round fight. This is scheduled for five rounds.
I think Pereira looks like a pretty good value play here. Could Ankalaev win? Sure, but I expect the majority of this bout to be contested at distance, and as I mentioned earlier, Magomed isn't a big volume guy. He also doesn't have the edge in pure power.
UFC 313 PICK: Pereira
Help make your DFS selections with UFC finishing odds, featured on our MMA odds page.
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) v. Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Gaethje ($7,800), Fiziev ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Gaethje (+130), Fiziev (-155)
This was supposed to be Gaethje v. Dan Hooker, but the latter was forced to withdraw due to a broken hand, and Fiziev willingly stepped in. It will end up a rematch of a March 2023 fight which Gaethje won via majority decision.
Gaethje's last fight came at UFC 300 last April. He took on Max Holloway for the "BMF" title that night and was knocked out with one second to go. Gaethje was getting routed anyway, so the end result wouldn't have been any different. The 36-year-old is just 3-3 in his past half-dozen bouts, with wins over Fiziev, Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler, and losses to Holloway, Charles Oliveira, and Khabib Nurmagomedov -- the last two of which came in lightweight championship fights and both via submission.
It's easy to see why Fiziev was willing to accept this fight on short notice. In addition to looking for revenge on Gaethje, he's been sidelined since September 2023. He lost to Mateusz Gamrot that night via second-round knockout after suffering a knee injury. Fiziev is without a win dating back to July 2022.
His recent inconsistencies aside, I've actually been pretty impressed with what appears to be a noticeable game plan adjustment from Gaethje of late. When he first entered the UFC -- and all throughout his WSOF (PFL) career -- Gaethje simply stormed into the cage with no plan and let the chips fall where they may. He would absorb two strikes in order to land three of his own. He actually fared better with that approach than I expected early in his UFC run, but of late, he seems to be picking his spots a bit better. That's going to have to continue if he hopes to succeed in the latter stages of his career.
Considering he's staring down the barrel of a three-fight losing streak, I'm going to assume Fiziev is fully healthy here. He's been off a long time, so even a serious knee injury likely would have healed in a year-and-a-half.
The first fight between the two was remarkably even. The difference in the bout was that Gaethje outworked Fiziev late. He wasn't necessarily much more accurate, but he threw more in Round 3, and that won him the fight.
My sense is that Fiziev has the skill set to make the necessary adjustments here. He's a high-level striker, and he's already gone 15 minutes with Gaethje. That's a lot of information to bank and put to later use.
I'm also somewhat concerned with how lousy Gaethje looked in the Holloway fight against a natural featherweight.
When push comes to shove, this is another pick 'em, but it's tough to beat a talented opponent twice in a row. I lean ever so slightly towards the Fiziev side
UFC 313 PICK: Fiziev
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Lightweight
Jalin Turner (14-8-0) v. Ignacio Bahamondes (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Turner ($8,000), Bahamondes ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Turner (+110), Bahamondes (-125)
Turner's UFC run has been a strange one. He won five straight from February 2020 to July 2022, primarily against lesser competition. He's struggled since, going 1-3 in his past four bouts, but his losses to Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot were via split decision. In his other setback, a knockout defeat to Renato Moicano in his most recent fight last April, he scored a Round 1 knockdown. As is, he needs to win in order to stay on the fringes of the top-10 in a loaded lightweight division.
Bahamondes has won five of six dating back to August 2021, with four of those wins coming via stoppage (three knockouts, one submission) and three of those efforts earning him a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus. That said, Bahamondes' best win during that stretch is probably his last one over Manuel Torres. The lone defeat came against L'udovit Klein, the best fighter he's faced during his UFC run. The gap in competition level faced between these two is very wide.
This is one of the most interesting fights on the entire card because of the size of these two. Both Turner and Bahamondes check in at 6-foot-3. Turner will have a two-inch reach edge. Both are use to being able to stand at distance and pick their opposition apart because there's virtually no other 155-pounders in the world with the physical assets to match their length.
Bahamondes is crazy aggressive on the feet to the point of recklessness at times. He's averaging 7.17 significant strikes landed per minute. He's landed 99 or more significant strikes four separate times during his UFC run. I wish he would dial it back a bit, but getting in a rhythm on the feet is clearly his greatest strength, so it's sort of tough to ask him to take his foot off the gas pedal.
I don't see either of the two doing much grappling. Turner should have a minor edge there, but he's averaging less than a takedown per 15 minutes, and he typically doesn't even remotely considering going that route unless he's facing unsuspecting strikers with a clear hole in their takedown defense. Bahamondes is at 85 percent in that area, so we're probably looking at a kickboxing match.
There's no pick on the card that I have less conviction for. This is a coin flip in every sense of the word, and that's what it's priced as. In that case, I typically lean the underdog to save a few extra bucks elsewhere, but I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Bahamondes. If these two fought 10 times, both seem likely to win five.
UFC 313 PICK: Turner
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos (14-4-1) v. Iasmin Lucindo (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Lemos ($7,700), Lucindo ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Lemos (+125), Lucindo (-150)
Lemos' UFC run has gone about as well as could reasonably be expected. She joined the company in July 2017 and is 8-4 in a dozen bouts with the promotion. She's fought for the UFC Women's Strawweight Championship, and her last three defeats came against the current champion (Zhang Weili), a former champion (Jessica Andrade), and a woman who is going to fight for the title sooner than later (Virna Jandiroba). It's pretty clear that at age 37 her best days are behind her, but Lemos is still capable of a nice performance here and there.
Lucindo probably has the edge here if for no other reason than the fact he turned just 23 years of age this past January. She doesn't have the experience of Lemos, but she's much younger and considerably more explosive. Lucindo has won four in a row, with three coming via decision and one via submission. Her split decision victory over Marina Rodriguez her last time out in October was a legitimate toss-up that could have gone either way. Lucindo's ceiling is pretty high, but I expect some bumps in the road along the way.
The advanced stats say Lemos is lucky to have had as much success as she has over the course of her career. By the numbers, she doesn't do anything particularly well. She averages just 3.16 significant strikes landed per minute (she absorbs 3.87), and she averages less than a takedown (0.90) per 15 minutes. I really like to see an aging fighter have one quality skill to fall back upon in the event of trouble. Not only does Lemos not have that, she may not to any one thing at an above-average level. She's very much a generalist with good durability.
Lucindo is short at 5-foot-3, but she seems to be deceptively strong for her size, and she's not afraid to crash the pocket in hopes of getting her hands on her opponent. She's landed at least two takedowns in each of her past four fights, and that has helped her overcome what are typically mediocre numbers in terms of the volume department on the feet.
This fight will probably got the distance, and Lemos will probably do enough to keep it somewhat close, so maybe she's worth a look as a punt play, but even if Amanda pulls the upset, I can't see her doing enough offensively to make her worth backing from a DFS perspective. Actually, same goes for Lucindo, but I think she wins the fight.
UFC 313 PICK: Lucindo
Lightweight
King Green (32-16-1, 1NC) v. Mauricio Ruffy (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Green ($6,800), Ruffy ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Green (+360), Ruffy (-470)
Green turned 38 years of age last September, but has shown no real signs of slowing down. He's essentially been a .500 fighter the past seven years, typically getting smoked by high-end competition, handling easier opposition, and mixing in a highlight reel victory or two. He did not look good his last time out, a first-round submission defeat to Paddy Pimblett last July. Green's value to the UFC is to go out there and put on entertaining fights. He's not in any sort of title conversation.
Ruffy, on the other hand, has the potential to enter the title conversation one day. He's 2-0 in his brief UFC run, with a knockout win over Jamie Mullarkey and a unanimous decision win over James Llontop on his resume. Ruffy also picked up a knockout victory in Dana White's Contender Series back in October 2023 which ended up being his gateway to the company.
The main reason Green has been so inconsistent is due to his unwillingness to change his offensive game plan in the slightest. He has supreme confidence in both his boxing skills and is confident he can defeat any man on the roster in a brawl. He keeps his hands low, and later in his career, has predictably struggled to get his head off the center line when his opposition returns fire. King still has enough gas left in the tank to win stand-up exchanges from lesser competition, but he's in all sorts of trouble against guys like Ruffy with legitimate skills.
Ruffy is a Fighting Nerds guy, which means he immediately has my attention. The Brazilian-based team has quickly developed into one of the best gyms in the sport, with countless fighters making runs in their respective divisions.
Ruffy has ridiculous power. 10 of his 11 career wins are via knockout. Yet, we saw in his last fight that you can outwork him on the feet. Llontop won the significant striking battle in their bout by a 90-67 count, but a Ruffy Round 2 knockdown was the biggest moment of the fight.
There's ways to exploit Ruffy, but I don't think Green is the guy. King hasn't leaned on his wrestling inside the Octagon in years, and I have a hard time believing he can land with enough authority to knock Mauricio out.
I don't love the price tag, but my guess is you're looking at a back-and-forth stand-up brawl before Ruffy finds the finish with a few big blows. Five of Green's 16 career defeats are via knockout.
UFC 313 PICK: Ruffy
OTHER BOUTS
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes (18-5-0, 1NC) v. Rizvan Kuniev (12-2-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Blaydes ($9,100), Kuniev ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Blaydes (-325), Kuniev (+260)
UFC 313 PICK: Blaydes
Flyweight
Joshua Van (12-2-0) v. Rei Tsuruya (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Van ($8,800), Tsuruya ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Van (-200), Tsuruya (+165)
UFC 313 PICK: Van
Middleweight
Brunno Ferreira (12-2-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (9-4-0)
DK Salaries: Ferreira ($7,600), Petrosyan ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Ferreira (+120), Petrosyan (-140)
UFC 313 PICK: Ferreira
Welterweight
Alex Morono (24-11-0, 1NC) v. Carlos Leal (21-6-0)
DK Salaries: Morono ($6,600), Leal ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Morono (+525), Leal (-750)
UFC 313 PICK: Leal
Featherweight
Mairon Santos (15-1-0) v. Francis Marshall (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($9,200), Marshall ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-325), Marshall (+260)
UFC 313 PICK: Santos
Middleweight
Djorden Santos (10-1-0) v. Ozzy Diaz (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($8,700), Diaz ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-200), Diaz (+165)
UFC 313 PICK: Santos
Featherweight
Chris Gutierrez (21-6-2) v. John Castaneda (21-7-0)
DK Salaries; N/A
Vegas Odds: Gutierrez (+105), Castaneda (-130)
UFC 313 PICK: Gutierrez
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 313 with more MMA betting content.
In search of a new, legal sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as these selections for the best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
