This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 103 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 103 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Manel Kape (20-7-0) v. Asu Almabayev (21-2-0)
DK Salaries: Kape ($9,000), Almabayev ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Kape (-220), Almabayev (+180)
Kape was originally scheduled to fight Brandon Royval here in what would have essentially been a battle for the next title shot at 125 pounds. Yet, Royval was forced to withdraw due to an undisclosed injury, leaving the top-end of the division in flux regardless of this outcome.
Kape lost his first two UFC bouts, including a unanimous decision to current champion Alexandre Pantoja in his company debut back in February 2021. He's been rolling of late, however, with wins in five of his past six bouts. His most recent victory was a lopsided beating of Bruno Silva in December on what was the last card of 2024. Kape is looking at a quick turnaround for this one.
Almabayev is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC and riding a 17-fight winning streak overall, so he's a pretty nice late-notice replacement, especially when you take into account the division's lack of depth. Almabayev is yet to have a signature win with the company, but he's defeated some decent middle-tier competition, names such as a Matheus Nicolau and Ode Osbourne.
This is going to be a massive and overwhelming contrast in styles.
Kape is one of the most creative strikers in the sport. The power is entirely legitimate for a flyweight, and the footwork and hand speed are both well above-average. When he gets into a rhythm, it's a thing of beauty. Kape has proven capable of putting up huge striking numbers in the past. He landed 111 significant strikes in his win over Silva and 112 against Felipe dos Santos two fights back.
That said, we've seen some really odd performances from him in which he stands around and doesn't do much. That's not an option here.
Almabayev averages 5.08 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a whopping 50 percent of his attempts. The number is a bit bloated because he got six against Jose Johnson and nine against C.J. Vergara, but shooting repeatedly is clearly the game plan. He went just 1-of-6 against Nicoleau but still managed more than 5:00 worth of control time.
The obvious concern for Kape is that we've seen him grounded in the past. He allowed three takedowns to Muhammad Mokaev in his only defeat in the past four years, although he did a nice job of not accepting a dominant position on the mat.
He has to know Almabayev is going to try to drag him to the ground, and while he may get him there at some point, I don't think he's going to be able to rack up enough control time to steal three rounds. Kape is going to have such a big advantage on the feet in terms of fluidity that I think he wins as long as he doesn't get stuck in one of those ruts in which he stands around and does nothing. I don't like the price tag, however.
THE PICK: Kape
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Co-Main Event - Middlweight
Cody Brundage (10-6-0, 1NC) v. Julian Marquez (9-5-0)
DK Salaries: Brundage ($7,700), Marquez ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Brundage (+120), Marquez (-140)
This is the strangest co-main event I can remember since we started covering MMA on RotoWire many years ago. The loser -- especially if it's Marquez -- it almost certainly looking at a release.
Often a lightning rod of attention, Brundage lost three in a row from December 2022 to June 2023. The UFC extended him another opportunity, and he's gone 2-1 (1NC) since. One of the victories came after he appeared to make a "business decision" and could not continue following blows to the back of the head against Jacob Malkoun. The loss came against Bo Nickal, and the no contest was his most recent fight against Abdul Razak Alhassan last July when 37 seconds in, you guessed it, Nickal said he could not continue after blows to the back of the head.
It's impossible to believe, but Marquez enters this fight is even worse shape. That's what happens when each of your last three bouts results in knockout defeats. Julian is 34 years old, so he's by no means ancient, and he hasn't fought much, competing just once in 2022, 2023 and 2024. That means his last win came back in April 2021.
For all his faults, Brundage is actually a halfway decent wrestler. He's averaging 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing exactly half his attempts. He doesn't do much from top position in terms of ground-and-pound, and he's prone to making extremely bone-headed decisions inside the Octagon, but I can easily envision a scenario in which he takes the path of least resistance and just lays on top of Marquez for the better part of 15 minutes. It's really his only path to victory.
Julian is arguably the greatest durability risk in the middleweight division. He doesn't grapple -- he literally hasn't landed a takeodwn in his UFC career -- so he's forced to stand-and-trade, and we've seen how that's gone of late. He has to put himself in the pocket in order to be successful. That said, Brundage has virtually no power. He has five career wins via knockout and three came in his first three pro bouts. He did knock out Zachary Reese in December 2023, but that was a fluke result after he slammed him on his head.
The easiest thing to do would be to ignore this fight entirely, but I'm not sure there are better options down the card.
I thought about taking Brundage, but then I thought some more and came to the realization that's not something I do. Ever. So Marquez is the pick. Cross your fingers and hope he lands a big blow or two and doesn't do something to get disqualified.
THE PICK: Marquez
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast (17-5-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Haqparast ($7,100), Ribovics ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Haqparast (+230), Ribovics (-285)
Often long on potential and short on actual production, Haqparast has quietly won four straight dating back to September 2022. His most recent victory over Jared Gordon was via split decision, and his best win during the stretch is over Jamie Mullarkey, but his roster spot has stabilized after being on shaky ground for quite a while.
I've been extremely impressed with what we've seen from Ribovics thus far. He earned his UFC opportunity with a 90-second knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2022. He dropped his UFC debut to Loik Radzhabov via unanimous decision but has since picked up wins over Daniel Zellhuber (split), Terrance McKinney (KO) and Kamuela Kirk (unanimous). I'm not sure what the upside is, but Ribovics looks like solid roster depth in what is arguably the deepest division in the company.
This has all the makings of the stand-up brawl.
Both of these guys employ the same exact style. They're willing to eat a punch in order to land two of their own. Both can grapple in a pinch -- Ribovics more so -- but that's not what either are interested in. They want to throw and land a ton of volume on the feet. Haqparast averages 6.15 significant strikes landed per minute, while Ribovics is all the way up at 7.53.
I also have some concerns about Haqparast's fight IQ. He's all action, all the time. He doesn't pick and chose his spots particularly well, and I could really see that costing him against an opponent such as Ribovics who should theoretically be able to match, if not exceed, his pace on the feet.
Then there's the fact Nasrat really hasn't had any success against halfway decent competition.
If you're looking for a real long shot, maybe you stack his fight and hope both guys land 150-plus significant strikes and someone finds a finish late. It's not a strategy I almost ever advocate, but you're going to need to think outside the box with this card.
Ultimately, I think Ribovics wins. He's just the more trustworthy of the two.
THE PICK: Ribovics
Featherweight
Hyder Amil (10-0-0) v. William Gomis (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Amil ($7,400), Gomis ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Amil (+165), Gomis (-200)
Amil is an interesting case. He'll be 35 years old in May, so he's definitely not a prospect, but he's undefeated as a professional and has a pair of knockout wins -- albeit against lower-level competition -- in his first two UFC bouts. He also picked up a unanimous decision win on Dana White's Contender Series and has fought for both LFA and Bellator in the past. I'm interested in seeing how he looks here because Gomis is lightyears better than anyone he has faced to date.
I've been impressed with Gomis, the winner of 12 straight including each of his first four UFC bouts. That said, he has two split decision victories and a majority decision win with the company, so things could look a whole lot worse. Gomis more than held his own against Joanderson Brito in one of those split decision wins in his most recent fight in September. I thought he lost, but he most definitely performed well in a bout few gave him a chance of winning.
At 6-foot, Gomis is one of the biggest featherweights on the roster. He has a three-inch edge in both height and reach over Amil, who at 5-foot-9, is by no means a small 145-pounder. His strikes look pretty, and he tends to work from the outside.
The exact opposite is true of Amil, who seeks to crash the pocket and turn his fights into a car crash.
The output here figures to be a big sticking point for Gomis. He averages 2.69 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes. In his three UFC fights that have seen the final bell, William has landed no more than 52 significant strikes. That's not going to get it done against a guy averaging 6.31 significant strikes landed per minute on average.
Even if you think Gomis is going to win, I don't see how he's going to help you much from a DraftKings perspective. The skill set of some fighters simply isn't conducive to fantasy production, and Gomis is one of them.
I'd rather roll the dice that Amil is able to get inside and turn this into a wild brawl and score a knockout win. You know he's going to remain uber-aggressive and fight for your dollar, win or lose.
THE PICK: Amil
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Danny Barlow (9-0-0) v. Sam Patterson (12-2-1)
DK Salaries: Barlow ($9,200), Patterson ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Barlow (-300), Patterson (+240)
THE PICK: Barlow
Heavyweight
Austen Lane (13-5-0, 1NC) v. Mario Pinto (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Lane ($6,900), Pinto ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Lane (+360), Pinto (-470)
THE PICK: Pinto
Featherweight
Ricardo Ramos (17-6-0) v. Jose Mariscal (17-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Ramos ($6,800), Mariscal ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Ramos (+350), Marsical (-455)
THE PICK: Marsical
Bantamweight
Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0, 1NC) v. John Castaneda (21-7-0)
DK Salaries: Silva de Andrade ($7,300), Castaneda ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Silva de Andrade (+235), Castaneda (-290)
THE PICK: Silva de Andrade
Featherweight
Danny Silva (9-1-0) v. Lucas Almeida (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($8,600), Almeida ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-220), Almeida (+180)
THE PICK: Almeida
Women's Flyweight
Andrea Lee (13-10-0) v. JJ Aldrich (13-7-0)
DK Salaries: Lee ($7,500), Aldrich ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Lee (+170), Aldrich (-205)
THE PICK: Aldrich
Flyweight
Charles Johnson (17-6-0) v. Ramazan Temirov (18-3-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($7,800), Temirov ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-115), Temirov (-105)
THE PICK: Temirov
Women's Flyweight
Montana De La Rosa (13-9-1) v. Luana Carolina (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: De La Rosa ($7,900), Carolina ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: De La Rosa (+120), Carolina (-140)
THE PICK Carolina
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 103 with more MMA betting content.
In search of a new, legal sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as these selections for the best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
