This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 95 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 95 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura (25-8-0) v. Serghei Spivac (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Tybura ($7,900), Spivac ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Tybura (+130), Spivac (-155)
This is a rematch of a February 2020 fight which Tybura won via unanimous decision. It happened so long ago that I put zero stock in the result.
Tybura has quietly won eight of his last 10 fights, starting with the first fight between the two. He has some halfway decent wins in there (Tai Tuivasa, Alexandr Romanov, Spivac) and has only lost to a pair of elite opponents in Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov. Tybura fights are not a visually pleasing experience, but he knows what he's good at and doesn't try to do too much inside the Octagon. He should remain a fringe top-10 heavyweight for the foreseeable future.
Spivac finds himself in a similar circumstance. He's won six of his last eight, with his two setbacks coming against Aspinall and Ciryl Gane. I actually thought Serghei had a chance of pulling the upset against Gane, a main event in Paris last September, but he looked shockingly poor in that fight, and quite frankly, it appeared as if he didn't want to be there.
Both these guys are low-volume strikers, and I don't think the extra two rounds is going to change things. Spivac has landed no more than 71 significant strikes in his past seven bouts. Tybura's high in his last seven is just 58 significant strikes. If you are tuning in looking for a wild brawl between two big men, you're going to be disappointed here.
Spivac wins with his wrestling. He's not a mauler and his technique isn't great, but he's pretty good if he gets his hands on you. He's averaging 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, but that number is inflated because he got six takedowns against Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, and Tuivasa.
For comparison's sake, Spivac attempted one takedown in the first fight between the two, it failed, and he was then totally overwhelmed by Tybura on the feet.
I'm confident Tybura would be content with a similar outcome. Spivac has enough power to finish lesser fighters and enough submission skills to finish low-end grapplers, but Tybura has a pretty solid all-around game, even if he doesn't excel in any one single area.
I have no strong lean on this fight whatsoever. And as I mentioned earlier, I don't put any stock in the first result. I will say that I am highly concerned about what Spivac showed in the Gane fight. I'm not saying Tybura is on Gane's level, but I have any question marks about Serghei to swing me in Marcin's direction, especially when the latter is the underdog.
THE PICK: Tybura
Featherweight
Damon Jackson (23-6-1, 1NC) v. Jose Mariscal (16-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Jackson ($7,100), Mariscal ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Jackson (+175), Mariscal (-210)
Set to turn 36 years of age two days before this event will take place, Jackson continues to go about his business in his second stint with the company. He snapped a two-fight losing streak with a split decision win over Alexander Hernandez this past April, an especially impressive result when you take into account the fact Hernandez missed weight. Jackson is by no means a contender of any sort, but he'll fight for your dollar each and every time out.
Marsical joined the UFC in June 2023 having lost three of his prior seven fights, but he's quietly racked up three straight victories to begin his run with the company. It's most certainly worth noting that Chepe faced far better competition than most prior to his UFC arrival. On the regional scene, he fought the likes of Steve Garcia, Joanderson Brito, Bryce Mitchell and Gregor Gillespie. So while Mariscal's UFC experience is technically limited, he's been doing this against high-level opposition for quite a while.
Jackson has always been a tough fighter to get a read on. He lacks both athleticism and power, but his grappling game is excellent (15 career wins via submission), and he's always been able to do just enough in the stand-up to get his opposition worried about his takedown attempts. He's always going to be in trouble in a prolonged kickboxing match, but Damon has a high fight IQ and is getting elite training every single day with the crew at Fortis MMA in Dallas.
Chepe, on the other hand, is likely praying this turns into a brawl. Mariscal is a far better striker and much more capable of stringing together effective combinations than Jackson. He's going to have to negate a four-inch height and two-inch reach disadvantage, but Damon isn't great at using his height to his advantage despite being massive for featherweight at 5-foot-11.
This likely comes down to which man can remain upright. Jackson has much better submission skills, but both men average about 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. Chepe is deceptively strong for his size, even if he's known for his hands. I guarantee rolling around on the mat with Damon is the last thing he wants to do in this fight.
Jackson seems like a reasonable value play given his experience and the fact he almost always shows up ready to go, but Chepe has a significant edge in the stand-up, and he's theoretically more physical. If he can avoid the tricky submission game of Damon, I think he wins.
THE PICK: Marsical
Women's Bantamweight
Yana Santos (14-8-0, 1NC) v. Chelsea Chandler (6-2-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($8,400), Chandler ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-140), Chandler (+120)
I'm a little surprised Santos is getting another chance here despite the fact she competes in a division with very little depth. She will be 35 years of age this coming November and enters having lost three in a row. Included in that stretch is a knockout loss against Irene Aldana, a unanimous decision defeat to Holly Holm, and most recently, a split-decision loss to Karol Rosa. Santos has fought just three times dating back to July 2021 due to missing the better part of two years due to the birth of her child.
Chandler is just eight fights into her pro career despite being 30 years of age. She had five fights with Invicta before arriving in the UFC in October 2022. She has alternated wins and losses with the company, with victories over Julija Stoliarenko and Josiane Nunes and a loss to Norma Dumont. The Nunes fight was the most recent, and much of the good will Chandler built up with her performance was negated by the fact she missed weight by a pound.
The sample size is small, but Chandler has the look of a pure brawler, which isn't a surprise considering she's from Stockton, California and trained with the Diaz brothers. Chelsea likes to work from in tight and mix it up. She can wrestle a bit, but it's mostly the result of strength and aggressiveness as opposed to technical skill.
On the whole, Santos is probably the better all-around fighter, but she's considerably older, has been less active of late, and may very well have one foot out the door.
My main issue with Yana at this point is that her entire win condition is via decision at this stage of her career. She has just one submission victory on her ledger, and her last knockout win came against fellow UFC vet Wu Yanan at "Fightspirit Championship 6" in St. Petersburg, Russia back in September 2016. If you think Santos is going to win, it's going to come via decision.
This looks like a prime chance to back an underdog. Santos is clearly on the last leg of her career, and I really don't understand how she's favored given her recent struggles. I don't think Chandler is about to go on a run of any sort, but she's tough and durable, and I could easily see her making life miserable for Santos just by going in there and trying to turn this into a wild brawl.
THE PICK: Chandler
Women's Bantamweight
Karol Rosa (17-6-0) v. Pannie Kianzad (17-8-0)
DK Salaries: Rosa ($8,600), Kianzad ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Rosa (-205), Kianzad (+170)
Rosa began her UFC run with four straight wins, but is just 2-3 in five fights since. Each of her seven wins with the company have come via decision, with two being split and one being a majority. In other words, there's most definitely a scenario in which she may have been handed her walking papers already.
Kianzad won four in a row from November 2019 to June 2021, but those victories came over Jessica-Rose Clark, Bethe Correia, Sijara Eubanks and Alexis Davis. None of those fighters are still with the company. The competition level has risen of late, and Pannie has predictably struggled. She's lost two in a row and three of four, with the defeats coming to Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira and Raquel Pennington. Like Rosa, Kianzad doesn't have a single UFC win by any method other than decision.
Rosa throws a ton of volume on the feet, but she's borderline reckless in the way she goes about it. She's willing to eat a strike in order to land two of her own, which is a massive issue when you have below-average power.
Pannie lands similar volume, if not on quite the same level. She landed at least 92 significant strikes in each bout during that previously mentioned four-fight winning streak, but the volume has dried up against better competition. Rosa isn't on the level of names such as Chiasson, Vieira and Pennington, but she's lightyears better than Clark, Correia, Eubanks and Davis.
This fight would seem to be a lock to go to a decision. If you're the type of person who likes to dabble in the betting streets, the over certainly seems like the play.
From a DraftKings perspective, I'd try to avoid it, but it's difficult on a card scheduled for 10 fights as of this writing.
You certainly can't stack it. Kianzad is bigger by two inches, but Rosa has an inch edge in reach. I would lean towards backing Rosa in hopes she can land the type of volume Pannie can't match. The only thing Karol has been susceptible to is the submission, and Kianzad doesn't have a submission win in 24 professional bouts.
THE PICK: Rosa
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Chris Gutierrez (20-6-2) v. Quang Le (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: N/A
THE PICK: Gutierrez
Welterweight
Danny Barlow (8-0-0) v. Nikolay Veretennikov (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Barlow (-355), Veretennikov (+280)
THE PICK: Barlow
Bantamweight
Toshiomi Kazama (10-4-0) v. Charalampos Grigoriou (8-4-0)
DK Salaries: Kazama ($7,400), Grigoriou ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Kazama (+180), Grigoriou (-220)
THE PICK: Grigoriou
Heavyweight
Jhonata Diniz (7-0-0) v. Karl Williams (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Diniz ($7.200), Williams ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Diniz (+170), Williams (-205)
THE PICK: Williams
Featherweight
Youssef Zalal (14-5-1) v. Jarno Errens (14-5-1)
DK Salaries: Zalal ($9,400), Errens ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Zalal (-425), Errens (+330)
THE PICK: Zalal
Women's Strawweight
Stephanie Luciano (5-1-1) v. Talita Alencar (5-0-1)
DK Salaries: Luciano ($8,500), Alencar ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Luciano (-175), Alencar (+145)
THE PICK: Alencar
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 95 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
