UFC Vegas 103 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC returns to the Apex for a card of sneakily compelling fights from which we can potentially profit. We'll look at each bout across three platforms, including a heavyweight who comes in as the biggest underdog on the card and a big puncher making his way up the ranks at lightweight. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Charles Johnson ($7,800)
Johnson appears to have a nice matchup ahead of him in Ramazan Temirov. The Kazakh fighter swings for the bleachers with every punch he throws, which should allow an agile and smart defensive fighter like "Inner G" to stay out of trouble and time reactive takedowns. Johnson has come through as a DFS underdog in three of his last four fights, making it unlikely we will continue to get such favorable prices if he picks up a win here.
John Castaneda ($8,900)
Early explosivity will make Douglas Silva de Andrade dangerous whenever he steps into the cage. Still, Castaneda should get through this one relatively comfortably if he can use his boxing and clinch work to weather the early storm. The Brazilian's power and general inactivity may make it difficult for "Sexi Mexi" to put up a big score, but he should at least garner cash considerations as the much more skillful fighter overall.
Austen Lane ($6,900)
It's been a while since I dipped below the $7k line in this article series, but some rudimentary wrestling was enough for Lane to find a win in that range against a lanky heavyweight in October. He draws another when he takes on debutante Mario Pinto. While he does have a nice jab and can use leg kicks effectively, Pinto fights slowly and stands upright, which allows him to get stalled out by wrestlers even in fights he wins. Lane hasn't been the most successful heavyweight on the roster, but he is big and agile enough to win if he follows the right game plan.
Jose Mariscal ($9,400)
Ricardo Ramos can be effective when fighting at the top of his game. However, this happens so infrequently lately that it's impossible to pick him against Mariscal, who can push a pace, throw clean combinations in the pocket, and work his wrestling game. I expect this to lead to another early finish, as Ramos hasn't even looked particularly crisp on the ground in recent fights.'
Asu Almabayev ($7,200)
It's clear that Manel Kape has worked on his takedown defense since entering the UFC, but he was still grounded three times in his loss to Muhammad Mokaev in July. The early portion of this fight may look very similar to the one against Mokaev, as Almabayev also likes to keep his opponent at range with kicks. The difference, however, will be the strength of "Zulfikar" and the frequency with which these attempts come. We know how fast and powerful Kape is, but he was so wary of being taken to the ground that he threw just 67 total strikes against Mokaev. This makes me think that, if nothing else, Almabayev is worth a play based on work rate.
Montana De La Rosa ($7,900)
De La Rosa went through a period of trusting her hands a bit too much but was back on the horse against Andrea Lee, where she landed three takedowns in a fight for the first time since 2021. A dedicated wrestling attack should work wonders against Luana Carolina, who likes to dart in and out of the pocket with quick strikes. The upshot of this style is that it frequently backs Carolina against the fence, which will allow De La Rosa to find clinch situations.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
JJ Aldrich OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes, and William Gomis OVER 40.5 Significant Strikes
This total seems low for Aldrich, who is a boxer by trade but has faced an unusual number of grapplers in her UFC career. Andrea Lee is physical enough to work a wrestling game but tends to rely on her kickboxing, as evidenced by the fact that she has scored two takedowns or less in four of her last six bouts. This should be a fight in which Aldrich is finally able to let her hands go, which should help us clear this mark.
As an athletic kickboxer with a nice jab, Gomis should be able to cover this line with room to spare. It seems the linemakers weighed this line heavily on Hyder Amil's last fight, which ended in a first-round knockout. As long as Gomis keeps range, he should be able to stick and move his way past this total.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Danny Barlow UNDER 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Julian Marquez OVER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time
7.5 minutes feels like plenty of time for a fight between Barlow and Sam Patterson, as the latter is an aggressive submission grappler who doesn't move his head at range, and the former is a powerful sniper who has yet to face a committed wrestler in the Octagon. This suggests that whoever can get their game going will pick up a win in short order.
The most recent fights of Marquez and Cody Brundage suggest a short night at the office, but those results are a bit deceiving, as two of Brundage's last four fights ended due to fouls, while another bout in that set finished due to a slam KO. The fluky nature of these outcomes and the fact that Brundage is not a knockout artist leave me feeling good about this total, as Marquez has never been submitted in 14 professional fights.
Bets to Consider
Danny Silva Wins via KO/TKO (+240)
Silva may be one to watch in the featherweight division, as his power, athleticism, and consistent body work should help him reach contender status. While he can wrestle as well, I believe his hands will do the Job against Lucas Almeida, who strikes without moving his head and appears to be a dedicated counter-fighter. This is a bad combination against someone like Silva, who will look to push a pace early.
Esteban Ribovics Wins via KO/TKO (+310)
By all rights, Ribovics should be sitting on back-to-back KO/TKO victories, as "El Gringo" was punching Daniel Zellhuber around the cage in the third round of their fight in September but was not awarded a fight stoppage. Nasrat Haqparast will look to stand right in the pocket with Ribovics, which hardly seems like a winning strategy, given the advantages the Argentine possesses in speed, power, and technique.
