The most intriguing Thanksgiving Football game is the battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and the suddenly resurgent Dallas Cowboys. The latest NFL Week 13 odds list the Chiefs as three-point road favorites.
If you're looking to spice up this matchup with some NFL Week 13 player props, I've got you covered. Just make sure to use an offer like the bet365 bonus code to make the most of your picks.
Best BetMGM Chiefs vs Cowboys Prop Bets: Thanksgiving Week 13
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George Pickens – Receiving Yards: OVER 72.5 (-118)
George Pickens is the hottest receiver in football not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has recorded at least 73 receiving yards in each of his last six outings, averaging a whopping 116.2 per game during that span. Since Week 4, Pickens has only been held under 78 yards once. That came back in Week 5 during a blowout win against the New York Jets, where the fourth-year star only saw four targets and had one of his lowest snap shares of the year. Prescott attempted a season-low 29 passes in that one, as Dallas didn't need him to do much to beat the Jets.
That will obviously be different against Mahomes and the Chiefs. As three-point underdogs, I expect Prescott to air it out early and often on Thanksgiving. If that happens, recent history says Pickens should finish way above 73 receiving yards.
Javonte Williams – Receiving Yards: UNDER 9.5 (-110)
After looking like he'd be a force in the receiving game to open the year, Javonte Williams' role as a pass-catcher has quietly evaporated. Williams was turning 4.6 targets into 3.3 receptions for 12.1 yards per game over his first seven outings this season. Those averages have plummeted to 1.8 targets for 1.3 catches and 5.5 yards per game over his last four. He has been held under 10 receiving yards in six of his last seven games. I think Dak Prescott will continue to look elsewhere in the passing game, though the low total does make this a riskier wager.
Best DraftKings Chiefs vs Cowboys Prop Bets: Thanksgiving Week 13
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Patrick Mahomes – Passing Yards: OVER 267.5 (-112)
This feels like a sucker bet, but I can't help myself. Patrick Mahomes has recorded at least 275 passing yards in four of his last five appearances. The only time he went under that mark came against the Buffalo Bills, who seem to have his number (in the regular season) and are the league's sixth-best pass defense in EPA. The Cowboys' pass defense does not compare to Buffalo's.
Dallas is the league's sixth-worst pass defense in EPA. That's not totally reflective of what they are now, as additions like Quinnen Williams and DeMarvion Overshown have significantly improved their roster. But the Cowboys' secondary hasn't changed much and that still looks like one of the worst groups in football. Dallas owns the league's sixth-worst coverage grade this season, per PFF. They have allowed the most receptions of 40-plus yards in the league (10). Add in the fact that KC will likely have to lean on Mahomes to keep pace with the red-hot Cowboys' passing attack, and I have a hard time seeing Mahomes finishing below 268 passing yards.
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2025 Primetime Player Prop Bet Record
Each week, I'll post my updated, season-long record for these prop bet picks pieces. Here's my current record (as of Week 13):
- 43-35 (55.1%)
Where to Bet on Week 13 Thanksgiving Football Props
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