Goodyear 400 Preview: Track Too Tough to Tame

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval and is really unlike any other race track on the circuit. It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between. The course has two distinctly different sets of turns. Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2. This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex. You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car. All this combined with the 23 – 25-degree variable banking, and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer. 

The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns. On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility. Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straight-aways as they accelerate coming out of the turns. This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track. Considering that we just came from single-groove, short track racing at Martinsville, we're in for a big change this weekend. The rim-riding action of Darlington this Sunday afternoon can be as entertaining as any event in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

Nearly all the tracks that the NASCAR Cup Series has visited to this point will not be of much help in figuring out Darlington Raceway this weekend. While Darlington is considered a super speedway, the racing is not like any other super speedway on the circuit. So, for this race, the loop data from Darlington Raceway will be an extremely important component in developing a list of fantasy racing drivers. The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle as well, but historical trends should run pretty true. There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 19 years or 26 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there appears to be a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington. However, one brand (Ford) has reeled off two Darlington victories in a row and turned what was a track of parity into a facility is definitely leaning towards the blue oval now. Chevrolet had won the three prior races at Darlington Speedway until this recent Ford streak, and Toyota has been shut out of victory lane at the track since 2021. We could be in for some more manufacturer upheaval this weekend. Toyota just came off a rather dominant showing at Martinsville this past Sunday and all three manufacturers have won each of the last three events in the 2025 schedule. Parity seems to be in charge at least for the moment.  

If Toyota hopes to get back into victory lane at Darlington Raceway, those hopes will largely ride with Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell. If Chevrolet has aspirations to get back into the Darlington win column, it will most likely be one of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers such as Kyle Larson or William Byron. The two won both 2023 Darlington events and seem best positioned right now to return to victory lane in South Carolina. Ford faces an uphill battle to hang onto their throne at Darlington Raceway as the Penske Fords are struggling right now and the Roush Fenway Keselowski Fords are not quite in race winning form yet this season. The picks below are our best bets for fantasy racing success at Darlington Raceway.    

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson had never won at the Track Too Tough to Tame, until the 2023 Cook Out Southern 500. The Hendrick Motorsports star added to his three runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes at the South Carolina oval with a convincing Darlington win two seasons ago. Larson has led over 1,000 laps for his career at Darlington Raceway, so it had been a real frustration for him until that big win. He now sports a sparkling 10.8 average finish at the Track Too Tough to Tame along with an astonishing 50-percent Top-5 rate. The Hendrick Motorsports star loves the high-groove style of racing at this track, so a second Darlington win could be in the offing this Sunday afternoon.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a four-time Darlington winner and sports a strong 72-percent Top-10 rate at this track. The 8.2-career average finish leads all active drivers at the Track Too Tough to Tame. The last of Hamlin's four victories at the South Carolina oval came as recently as 2021 and he finished an impressive runner-up there in September of 2022. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has been heating up over the last month and it all culminated in his convincing win at Martinsville this past Sunday. We don't believe for a second that Hamlin is done just yet. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is just too good at Darlington Raceway and he's almost always a threat to win here each time the NASCAR Cup Series visits South Carolina.   

Christopher Bell – Bell has three victories already this season and one of them came on the mid-sized oval in Atlanta a few weeks ago. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota just cashed-in on a pole and strong runner-up finish at Martinsville this past weekend and come to Darlington with a bit of momentum. Bell has not been a world beater at this track in South Carolina, but he did claim his first Darlington pole position in 2023. The Joe Gibbs Racing star also nabbed his career-best Darlington finish in last September's Cook Out Southern 500. He drove the No. 20 Toyota to a stellar third-place finish which was his second-career Top 5 at the facility. Bell should not be overlooked in Sunday's Goodyear 400.

Chase Briscoe – In his last two Darlington starts with former boss, Stewart Haas Racing, Briscoe grabbed impressive fifth- and first-place finishes at the Track Too Tough to Tame last season. He had never done anything noteworthy at the track prior to last year, but his victory in last September's Cook Out Southern 500 was a major statement. He stole control of that race late from Kyle Larson and seized the victory. Now Briscoe comes back to Darlington Raceway to defend his race win of last fall with his new race team at Joe Gibbs Racing. He should be up to the task of a strong start with the No. 19 Toyota team. Briscoe recently registered an impressive fourth-place finish at the mid-sized oval in Homestead.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran grabbed an impressive runner-up finish at the Track Too Tough to Tame in 2020 and he finished eighth-place in this event last season. Bowman's historical numbers at Darlington are not impressive but they are sprinkled with some success. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has been dialed-in on the mid-sized tracks early in 2025 with a seventh-place finish at Las Vegas and more recently a pole position and runner-up finish in Homestead. We believe Bowman and this race team are poised to have a good run in South Carolina. He's a strong bet for a Top-10 finish in Sunday's Goodyear 400.

Bubba Wallace – After many struggles at this challenging oval earlier in his career, Wallace has really taken a liking to Darlington Raceway the past few seasons. The 23XI Racing veteran has Top 10's in four of his last five starts at the facility and last September he won the pole position and led 37 laps before fading outside the Top 10 late. Wallace and the No. 23 team come to South Carolina with third-place finishes in their last two events and one of those was an impressive performance at the mid-sized oval in Homestead. The No. 23 Toyota team have heated up and are firing on all cylinders right now. With Wallace's recent Darlington success, he makes a strong fantasy play this weekend.

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star has four Top 10's in his last five races and comes to Darlington Raceway in good shape in terms of performance. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has a steady 44-percent career Top-10 rate at Darlington Raceway, but he's trended better in more recent outings. Elliott's last four Darlington starts have netted one Top-5 and four Top-15 finishes for an average finish of 8.3 across the past two seasons. That's well better than his career average finish at the track. We don't expect Elliott to be a big lap leader or stage winner this Sunday afternoon, but he should have little trouble sticking inside the Top 10 and mixing it up among the lead pack.

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has been reasonably good on the mid-sized ovals early in this season. Chastain earned Top 10's at both Atlanta and Las Vegas before running into trouble at Homestead recently. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet doesn't have career-long success at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but the success has been more recent for Chastain. He's earned a pair of Top 5's and an 11th-place finish in his last three starts at the egg-shaped oval. The high-groove racing style has begun to appeal to Chastain and he's started to pull in some of his best finishes at the track over his last two campaigns. He finished a strong fifth-place in last September's Cook Out Southern 500.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Darlington & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – The two-career Darlington wins and 55-percent career Top-10 rate at the South Carolina oval speak volumes. This second of his two wins came in this event one year ago. His recent efforts have lowered the owner/driver's average finish at the Track Too Tough to Tame to a razor sharp 11.0. That average finish spread over 22 starts is a very impressive statistic. With just a single DNF in those 20 starts, there's a certain measure of security that comes with a Keselowski fantasy racing start at Darlington Raceway. He's been a bit off on the mid-sized ovals so far this season, but the driver of the No. 6 Ford is not to be discounted at Darlington. Keselowski finishes on the lead lap here and he puts it in the Top 10 more often than not.       

William Byron – He had a four-race Darlington Top-10 streak snapped in last September's Cook Out Southern 500. However, Byron should rebound in Sunday's Goodyear 400. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has a recent fourth-place finish at Las Vegas and he brings that type of home run potential to most mid-sized tracks. Byron now has 13-career starts at Darlington Raceway with one pole position, one win (this event two seasons ago) and four Top 10's in his last five visits. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet qualifies very well here and that counts for something as Byron checks in with a strong 10.5 average start position. Hendrick Chevrolet horsepower has proven to be king at Darlington in recent seasons, so this driver and team have to be high on our list. 

Ryan Preece – The move to Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing is really paying off for this journeyman driver. Preece rides a three-race Top-10 streak into Darlington this week and looking to extend that number to four. Two of those Top 10's came on mid-sized ovals Las Vegas and Homestead so prospects are looking pretty good for the No. 60 Ford team. Preece doesn't have eye-popping stats in his 10 prior starts at Darlington Raceway, but he was reasonably good with Top-15 finishes in three of his last five starts and a Darlington-best 12th-place last September. He's in probably the best situation team-wise that he's been in his time in NASCAR's top division so we expect results Sunday in South Carolina.  

Kyle Busch – Busch's recent cool streak has dampened what was otherwise a good start to the season. He'll be slotted in the sleepers list this week as he looks to rebound at Darlington. Busch is a one-time winner at Darlington Raceway, although it came way back earlier in his career in 2008. Looking back at his history at Darlington, we see a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate and nearly 900-career laps led with a respectable average finish of 13.4. He claimed an impressive runner-up finish here last September and that's much of the reason for our optimism this weekend. We have a lot of expectations for Busch and the No. 8 team this Sunday afternoon.

Tyler Reddick – The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has been reasonably good to start the season but not overwhelming so we've put him in the sleepers list this week. This Sunday Reddick visits one of his favorite mid-sized ovals on the circuit. In 11-career starts at the South Carolina track, Reddick has nabbed two runner-up finishes, three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes. The two runner-up and three Top 5's are noteworthy as they all have come in the last six races at the egg-shaped oval. He now boasts and average finish of 13.1 at the Track Too Tough to Tame, and that puts Reddick at the upper tier of drivers in terms of performance here. The 23XI Racing youngster is looking to get on a roll and visiting one of his favorite ovals this weekend.                                                                                                                                                               

Chris Buescher – Buescher nabbed 13th- and sixth-place finishes at the mid-sized ovals of Las Vegas and Homestead recently and that's a good indicator heading to South Carolina this weekend. As it relates to Darlington Raceway, he's not great career-wise at this challenging oval, but he's been very strong in recent visits. Five of his last eight visits to Darlington have netted Top-10 finishes. That 63-percent Top-10 rate is well above his career 33-percent rate. Also, Buescher finished a strong sixth-place in last September's Cook Out Southern 500. That bodes well heading into Sunday's 400-mile battle in Darlington.       

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has had a long, tough run of races at Darlington Raceway. With just three Top 10's in 16-career starts (19-percent), most fantasy racing players will likely pass on the driver of the No. 12 Ford. His recent inconsistency to start the 2025 season is also concerning. Mid-sized ovals have been a real struggle for this driver and team early this season. That's not a good indicator heading into the Goodyear 400. Blaney and his Penske Racing team struggled through crashes and outside the Top 30 finishes in both their Darlington starts last season. That's certainly not a good last look heading into the first of two Darlington races this season.   

Joey Logano – Despite being a one-time Darlington winner and having a career 50-percent Top-10 rate at the South Carolina oval, Logano has been uneven at best in recent races at the track. He has just one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes in his last four Darlington starts. The 25-percent Top-10 rate is below his career average and his 14.8 average finish across that span is above his career average of 13.3. Logano and the No. 22 Ford team have just one Top 10 this season and that came in last Sunday's short track battle at Martinsville. He has been mediocre at best on the mid-sized tracks in 2025 with an average finish of 13.7. Among the A tier, elite drivers Logano is probably the riskiest fantasy prospect of the lot at Darlington Raceway.   

Daniel Suarez – Outside of runner-up finish at Las Vegas, this has been an inconsistent start to the season for the No. 99 Chevrolet team. In addition, Suarez has always had his struggles at Darlington Raceway. In 14-career starts he has just one Top-10 finish and just three Top-15 finishes. That average finish is working out to a lofty 23.5 across his career. Last season alone was subpar for the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team at the Track Too Tough to Tame. Suarez registered finishes of 24th- and 18th-place at Darlington Raceway in 2024. Given his current status and his lack of performance at Darlington, it's best to stay clear of the Trackhouse Racing veteran this weekend.  

Shane van Gisbergen – Outside of road courses this season, van Gisbergen is going to struggle to find fantasy appeal on the intermediate ovals. He scored a strong sixth-place finish at COTA as expected earlier in the season, but the latest array of ovals have been a struggle for the No. 88 Chevrolet team. Van Gisbergen has failed to crack the Top 30 in his last four starts and two of those have been DNF's. This weekend the Trackhouse Racing driver tackles the Track Too Tough to Tame for just the second time ever in a Cup car. Last September he qualified a disappointing 34th and finished a distant 26th-place in the Cook Out Southern 500. We're sure van Gisbergen learned some things in that outing, but mastering the high-groove oval in South Carolina is something altogether different.