This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship
Location: Avondale, Arizona
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: Oval
Laps: 200
NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Preview
For the first time since Kansas, we had a non-playoff driver take the checkered. In both instances, Aric Almirola was the winner. Almirola's win allowed both Cole Custer and Justin Allgaier to get to the Championship race on points. Meanwhile, AJ Allmendinger won at Las Vegas (the first race from the Round of 8) and Austin Hill at Homestead (the second race of the Round of 8). The narrative is often that those locked into the Championship race the earliest have the upper hand because they can turn their focus to the final race before their competitors. That would point to Allmendinger, but Custer is the defending champ and Allgaier has an excellent history at Phoenix. The bottom line is that it's a deserving group that should give us some compelling racing.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of Races: 45
- Winners from Pole: 11
- Winners from Top 5: 37
- Winners from Top 10: 40
Previous Winners at Phoenix Raceway
2024- Chandler Smith
2023- Cole Custer
2023- Sammy Smith
2022- Ty Gibbs
2022- Noah Gragson
2021- Daniel Hemric
2021- Austin Cindric
2020- Austin Cindric
2020- Brandon Jones
2019- Justin Allgaier
Phoenix is a one-mile flat track and hosts two races in the series per year. That leaves us with both a lot of track-specific driver history as well as history at comparable tracks such as Gateway, New Hampshire and Richmond.
Qualifying is crucial to the race's outcome, though it's worth dissecting that a bit further. In the last 15 races, the pole winner has won only once, a shift that came after a dominant stretch from the likes of Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. However, in that 15-race sample, 11 winners qualified inside the top five and 13 inside the top 10.
There are some specifics to keep in mind about this race as compared to the rest of the playoffs and certainly the regular season. The Championship winner doesn't have to necessarily win the race, but in most cases the four remaining drivers will be far up the field. Seven of the last eight races were won by the Champion and in last year's final restart, the four Championship drivers occupied the two front rows.
The other thing to keep in mind is that this is an experienced group of finalists. Only Hill is making his first appearance in the Championship race, while both Custer and Allmendinger will return to the Cup series.
NASCAR Xfinity DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for the Championship Race
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Cole Custer - $11,000
Justin Allgaier - $10,800
Chandler Smith - $10,300
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sammy Smith - $9,800
Austin Hill - $9,500
AJ Allmendinger - $9,200
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Jesse Love - $8,300
Brandon Jones - $8,000
Ryan Sieg - $7,800
Parker Kligerman - $7,500
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Parker Retzlaff - $6,900
Ryan Ellis - $5,300
NASCAR Xfinity Picks for the Championship Race
Cole Custer- $11,000
Justin Allgaier - $10,800
Jesse Love - $8,300
Parker Kligerman - $7,500
Parker Retzlaff - $6,900
Ryan Ellis - $5,300
This is a straightforward race weekend from a roster construction standpoint, and the answer should be stars and scrubs for all the reasons discussed above about the success of the four remaining playoff drivers. That's reflected in the roster above. A lot of the signs point to Custer defending his title. He led the most laps this season (772) and is tied for the most top-10 finishes (22). Even if he doesn't walk away as the winner, Custer has a very safe floor.
Allgaier's inclusion is based on his history at Phoenix. He's made 28 career Phoenix starts, he has two wins and 18 top-10 finishes. Allgaier also ran extremely well in the spring, but had his race derailed by a punctured tire.
The one outlier among the final four is Hill. He's regarded as a superspeedway specialist, and his three regular season wins came at a combination of Daytona and Atlanta.
Jamming in two of the top-priced drivers requires some balancing from a price perspective. Ellis is a decent punt. In four races since 2022, he's finished 21st or better three times and inside the top 20 twice. That's not exactly prolific, but it opens up the rest of the roster. There's a slight bit more reason for optimism about his outlook, as he's qualified 18th or better in all five of his races. That hasn't translated to great finishes, but he has put himself in position for decent results.
Love and Kligerman are both playoff drivers who are capable of top-10 – maybe even top-five – finishes. Kligerman especially is a good value, while Love has had a very solid season. They round out the roster well.
