Straight Talk Wireless 400 Preview: New Date for Homestead

This week we head to South Florida and return to Homestead-Miami Speedway for a 400-mile race on this challenging intermediate oval. The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the 1.5-mile true oval with variable banking for the first time since October of last year.  Homestead-Miami Speedway's unique configuration which includes relatively flat straight-aways of 3 degrees and 20-degree variable banked turns presents a challenge unlike any other facility on the circuit. This unique mid-sized track will be the sixth race of the 2025 season. Homestead had previously held a home in the NASCAR playoffs and was an integral event in the Round of 8. For this season, NASCAR decided to move Homestead up into the early-season schedule and shuffle the deck so to speak with the early-season races.

For 21 years Homestead-Miami Speedway hosted the NASCAR Cup Series season finale. It was the climax of the NASCAR playoffs and where the Cup Series champion was crowned each season. The sanctioning body shook up the schedule after 2019 and moved Homestead to an early-season date. With the pandemic, we saw Homestead's new date slip into the mid-summer of 2020, but then return to early in the calendar during 2021. For the last four seasons this 400-mile event has moved closer to its old schedule slot. NASCAR returned Homestead to the playoff calendar in 2022 and made this unique oval one of the lead up races to the conclusion of the season. Now, we return Homestead again to the early part of the schedule and make it one of the opening intermediate oval races of the campaign. With the just completed Las Vegas race in our recent memory, we should have a good feel for who is carving up these mid-sized ovals.

Since we only come to Homestead-Miami Speedway once a year, we will need to rely on historical information to a great extent for this Sunday's race. The usual suspects perform very well at the South Florida oval, and most of them are performing well right now. While current hot streaks and similar track performance will play a modest part in this week's picks, we'll still need to review some past data to outline potential top performers for this event. Here are the loop stats for the last 20 races at Homestead.

This weekend is shaping up to be a big duel between Ford and Chevrolet to see if they can dethrone Toyota at HMS. Drivers for these two manufacturers have been vying for supremacy in recent intermediate oval races; however, Toyota has won the last two battles at Homestead Miami Speedway. As you can see from the table above, there is a pretty good mix of Toyota and Chevrolet drivers at the top at Homestead. In the last Cup Series race at HMS, Tyler Reddick out-battled both Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin en route to the win. It was his first-career victory at the South Florida oval. After the final caution of the day, he passed Blaney on the last lap and came away with the win in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.    

If another driver outside of this trio hopes to steal the thunder on Sunday, it could likely be Christopher Bell. He has been strong on intermediate ovals dating back to last season, and he's shown a proficiency for the oval in South Florida having won there in 2023. The other group of contenders for the Homestead crown would include names like Kyle Larson, William Byron and Joey Logano. This trio led a good number of laps at Las Vegas last week (111 laps) and shouldn't be underestimated. We'll break down all the contenders, solid plays and sleepers you need to consider in order to dominate your fantasy leagues at Homestead-Miami Speedway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Christopher Bell – Bell saw his three-race win streak come to an end at Las Vegas last week. He finished a rather pedestrian 12th-place in the Pennzoil 400, but we expect a rebound this week in South Florida. We could see the Joe Gibbs Racing star have his revenge Sunday at Homestead. Bell has been pretty impressive in his five starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He won the 2023 installment of this event and he's grabbed two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his Homestead starts. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has challenged for the win in his last two starts in South Florida. Riding some great momentum, he's poised to challenge for the win in Sunday's 400-mile battle.

Kyle Larson – Larson was a bit off his A-game last weekend in Las Vegas and would finish ninth-place in the Pennzoil 400, despite leading a race-high 61 laps. Fortunately, Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of his better ovals so rebounding should be pretty easy. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet likes to use the high groove at this oval and has to good effect over his career. Larson won this event three years ago and he finished runner-up at HMS in 2016. Larson's 46-percent Top-5 rate at Homestead, along with 626-career laps led, indicate he has spent a lot of time at the front at this track. He's qualified a strong 4.0 average starting position across his last three Homestead starts. We suspect he'll be one of the drivers to beat in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.

William Byron – The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been dangerous in recent intermediate oval events. Byron led 10 laps and grabbed a strong fourth-place finish this past week in Las Vegas. That gives him plenty of credit as we come to South Florida for the Straight Talk Wireless 400. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster won at HMS four seasons ago, and he has captured strong fourth- and sixth-place finishes in his last two starts in South Florida. Byron has led 159 combined laps at Homestead-Miami Speedway and that total is sure to grow. His 57-percent Top-10 rate at Homestead-Miami Speedway is pretty respectable and it's dropped his average finish at the oval to 13.6 which overcomes some of his early-career struggles here. This driver and team have been sharp in the early season and will continue to race like it Sunday in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.  

Tyler Reddick – Reddick made his presence felt at Las Vegas this past week by leading 34 laps and showing strength in the final stage of last Sunday's Pennzoil 400. He didn't get the finish he deserved, but he managed to capture our eye. In addition, Reddick loves racing on this South Florida oval. He won in a dominant performance from the pole position here last season and he's nabbed four Top-5 finishes in his five-career HMS starts. That's a whopping 80-percent Top-5 rate and although it's a small sample size, it bears close examination. We believe Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team will be in the mix for the win Sunday at Homestead.      

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Alex Bowman – Bowman qualified well and delivered a strong seventh-place finish at Las Vegas this past weekend. That effort could be some foreshadowing for how the No. 48 Chevrolet team will perform at Homestead this week. Bowman doesn't have great numbers at this track, but recent visits have been very consistent. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has three Top-10 finishes in his last five trips to South Florida (60-percent) and the average finish stands at a respectable 12.4 across that span. That's well below his career average at this track. Bowman's last start at Homestead-Miami Speedway last October netted a steady seventh-place finish in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.        

Josh Berry – Berry burst into the win column for the first time in his career at Las Vegas this past week despite 40-1 Vegas odds on him winning. You can easily say the Wood Brothers Racing driver is now squarely on out fantasy racing radar heading to South Florida this week. Visiting an intermediate oval for the second week in a row should be highly beneficial to the No. 21 Ford team. Berry has just one-career Cup Series start at Homestead-Miami Speedway and it was a respectable 11th-place finish in this event last season. That's probably the floor for this driver and team in Sunday's Straight Talk Wireless 400. Berry's execution at Las Vegas last week was flawless and he raced among the leaders the full distance. He should do so again at Homestead this weekend.   

Daniel Suarez – Josh Berry may have been the surprise winner at Las Vegas this past Sunday, but it wasn't that surprising to see Suarez his runner-up finisher. The Trackhouse Racing driver has performed well at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in recent seasons so it was pretty much expected he'd be a Top-10 finisher. Now Suarez and the No. 99 Chevrolet team look to ride that momentum into Homestead this week. While his career resume at HMS isn't that impressive (13-percent Top-10 rate and 20.8 average finish) his recent outings there have generally been mid-teens finishes and have yielded a 14.3 average across the last four events. We believe Suarez will up his game this weekend and capture his second-career Top-10 finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway.         

Denny Hamlin – After a disappointing 25th-place finish at Vegas this past week, Hamlin will look to rebound at Homestead this week. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has three-career victories and 13 Top-10 finishes at the South Florida track. He won this event five seasons ago with the most dominant Homestead performance of his career. Hamlin led 137 laps from the pole that June afternoon in South Florida and held off Chase Elliott to collect that third-career victory at the track. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team has cracked the Top 10 at an impressive 65-percent at Homestead-Miami Speedway and that counts for something. Hamlin led 21 laps and finished a brilliant third-place here last October. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Miami & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott comes to South Florida this weekend looking to build on the success of last weekend's 10th-place finish on the Las Vegas oval. Homestead has been a decent track for the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet but not a homerun facility. Elliott will be making just his 10th-career start at the 1.5-mile South Florida oval. The Hendrick Motorsports star has four Top-10 finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway for a pedestrian 44-percent Top-10 rate. Elliott started seventh on the grid at HMS last October and led a whopping 81 laps before finishing a strong fifth-place in last season's Straight Talk Wireless 400. The notes from that outing should come in rather handy for this driver and team this Sunday afternoon.

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger forged his first Top-10 finish of the season with his steady eighth-place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this past Sunday. He's now squarely on our fantasy radar screen coming into the Straight Talk Wireless 400. The Kaulig Racing veteran has performed well at the South Florida oval. He rides a three-race Homestead Top-10 streak into this week's action and his six-career Top 10's at this track register a respectable 46-percent career Top-10 rate at Homestead. Allmendinger's last start at the track wasn't a good qualifying performance, but the veteran driver would have little trouble racing his way through the field to a strong eighth-place finish at HMS.

Ross Chastain – The Florida native has had his share of struggles at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but he also has a brilliant runner-up finish at the track back in 2022. Considering that Chastain just forged a strong fifth-place finish at the similar sized oval in Nevada this past week, we're going to ere to the positive this weekend and pick Chastain to be a sleeper in this event. The veteran driver has raced well thus far this season outside of his crash and DNF at Daytona. Chastain has delivered one Top-5, two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes through the first five events. He's been a respectable performer to this point in the season. We believe he'll find the Top 10 Sunday in South Florida.

Austin Cindric – Cindric is the momentum play this week after his somewhat surprising sixth-place finish at Las Vegas this past Sunday. The driver of the No. 2 Ford hasn't really been known for any success at Las Vegas nor intermediate ovals in general but he pulled off a very strong qualifying effort (third-place) and drove to the Top 10. Coming to an intermediate oval for the second week in a row is a good stroke of luck for Cindric. His three-career starts at HMS have nothing special (19.3 average finish) but we believe it could be a much different story this time around. Before promoting to the Cup Series full-time Cindric had a lot of Xfinity Series success at this track. He nabbed a pole position, near-200 laps led, three Top 5 and five Top 10's across five starts. Cindric knows how to race this track.      

Ryan Preece – Among the several surprises we had at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this past week, Preece was a part of the show. He pedaled the No. 60 Ford to a strong third-place finish in the Pennzoil 400 after a reasonably good qualifying effort. It was just his fifth-career Top 5 and best performance on an intermediate oval since last October's Straight Talk Wireless 400. That's right, the last time Preece visited the 1.5-mile oval in South Florida he drove his former Stewart Haas Racing Ford to a 10th-place finish at Homestead. He now has respectable 13th-place and 10th-place finishes in his last two starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. We believe all the indicators are pointing to more success for this driver and team this weekend.

Brad Keselowski – He narrowly missed the Top 10 this past week at Las Vegas (11th-place) but it was still a steady performance. Keselowski has better intermediate ovals in his resume than Homestead-Miami Speedway. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has no wins and a pedestrian 41-percent Top-10 rate at HMS. Still, Keselowski has the capability to lead laps here and challenge the Top 10. He led 8 laps in last October's Straight Talk Wireless 400 and wound up a reasonable 17th-place after 400 miles. We believe he'll be much better this time around. Keselowski's career average finish at this track is 14.6 and we believe he'll be under that on Sunday afternoon.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is coming off a disappointing finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and looking to rebound at Homestead. He qualified poorly in Vegas and ran into someone else's trouble in a multi-car crash and DNF. Blaney doesn't have stellar career stats at the 1.5-mile Florida track (30-percent Top-10 rate and 15.3 average finish), but he has finished runner-up in his last two Homestead-Miami Speedway starts. He led a combined 100 laps in those two recent efforts, so that makes him a tough call for the fade this week, but we're not phased. This driver and team are in a rut right now and are finding trouble all over and off the race track currently.

Ty Gibbs – The start to the 2025 season has been inauspicious for Gibbs and his Joe Gibbs Racing team. The young driver has yet to post a Top-15 finish and he's crashed out of two events already. Gibbs comes to South Florida a lowly 34th in the driver point standings. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota has three prior Cup starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and one Top-10 finish in those efforts. The 33-percent Top-10 rate is across a small sample size and so is the 21.7 average finish. However, Gibbs struggled mightily here last October, laboring to a 36th-place finish in the last season's Straight Talk Wireless 400. It's best to keep this young driver and team on the fantasy bench this Sunday.      

Kyle Busch – Busch has been a mixed bag to start this season. He's netted three Top 10's but his race team didn't do him any favors at Las Vegas this past week. Busch had a fast car but a loose wheel would send him into the wall late in the race and deny him a Top-10 finish. That's not a good look coming to South Florida this week, despite the team's obvious speed in Vegas. Homestead is a track where Busch has enjoyed a lot of success over the years with two wins and a stout 55-percent Top-10 rate. However, his last two efforts at HMS have amounted to 18th- and 31st-place finishes the last two seasons with this race team. We're assigning a caution tag to Busch and the No. 8 team this week. Buyer beware.

Joey Logano – This season has been a tale of inconsistency for Logano and the No. 22 Ford team, so we've ranked them a fade play at Homestead. He's led a lot of laps and qualified well in these first five events, but the finishes have not followed. The Penske Racing star is a one-time Homestead winner (2018) and he's led close to 200-career laps at this facility. However, Logano's 44-percent Top-10 rate at HMS is bit low for what we like to see in a solid play driver. He's only cracked the Top 10 once in his last five Homestead starts and his effort here last October netted a disappointing 28th-place finish in last season's Straight Talk Wireless 400. It's best to keep Logano on the bench this week.