Best Bets: EPL, MLS, Ligue 1 and More

Last week we took some absolutely brutal beats and still conquered the weekend, so while we are still down overall that is just a further reassurance that the process works and quick reminder that patience is key in the marathon that is sports betting. We went 10-8-1 for a profit of .95 units, or $95. Like I said, that's a lot of work for $95 but if the games ended at 90 minutes we would have been up about $400, so while that is not an excuse, it's just an example that we are capping the games correctly and everything regresses back to the mean eventually. That puts our four week record back to .500 at 27-27-1 and -1.75 units, or -$175.

There are a few prop bets in here this week, as these are always a good place to find value due to the daunting task of keeping lines updated correctly for hundreds of bets on each game. Onwards we press:

PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)

West Ham United vs. Southampton: West Ham pk @ -105
Sunday, 11:00 a.m. (EDT)

Although I have previously placed a few pk bets in this series, I don't think I have ever given an exact explanation: A bet labeled "pk" is a bet on the goal spread, not the moneyline, that removes the draw outcome from the equation. A draw results in a push and the cancellation of your bet. Simple enough! Here's why I love these bets: when we get a team at home that has been struggling, often time oddsmakers lose a lot of faith in them even when they are in a favorable situation. West Ham have been terrible to open this season, and even though we have been picking on them for totals with great success lately, a visit from Southampton should be enough to get the ship righted. Southampton have yet to score on the road, though they opened their road schedule against Manchester United and Arsenal so that can certainly be forgiven, but uneventful draws against Watford and Sunderland at home haven't inspired any confidence. Given that a draw results in a push, this is a good situation to buy low on West Ham with much less pressure.

Manchester United vs. Leicester City: Over 2.5 @ -120
Anytime goal scorer: Zlatan Ibrahimovic @ +125
Saturday, 7:30 a.m.

Just to clarify, that is two separate bets that I am endorsing, NOT a parlay. These bets stem from a Twitter discussion when we realized you would have to go back over 15 years to find the last time a team with Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the roster lost three straight games. Sometimes situations are much more powerful than numbers, and I can assure you that United are not going to lose four in a row. Well they may, who knows? But that outcome is irrelevant because even if they do, they are going down swinging. I was interested in this total earlier in the week, but with Kasper Schmeichel picking up another knock in training, I am growing in confidence. In a month that has seen hernia surgery and a concussion, it's now a sore muscle that has him questionable. Ron-Robert Zieler is not a bad goalkeeper by any means, but he certainly is a downgrade and is worth picking on given his inexperience in this league. The combo of Riyad Mahrez and Islam Slimani was incredibly impressive in Leicester's last outing, and when you factor in an angry Swede, there should be some fireworks here.

MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER (USA)

San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City: Under 2.5 @ -145
Saturday, 10:30 p.m.

Although San Jose is a much better team at home, they are earning their points via their excellent defense. I love to break down total match goals by home/road splits, and while San Jose cannot find the net effectively in any stadium, the percentage of matches with zero or one total goals scored actually increases from 32 percent (on the road) to 43 percent at Avaya Stadium. Three of San Jose's last four home matches went under (with two of them scoreless draws), and Sporting KC is not a threatening road team: they have lost three of their last four and have not won as the visitor in their last 12 tries. -145 is a steep price to pay but it's free money if all goes to plan.

I am actually going to pass on the rest of the MLS offerings this weekend. Usually MLS has some of the easiest lines to work around, but things are very tight this week. Sure, I like Toronto against Philadelphia and New York Red Bulls against Montreal as much as anyone, but at -140 and -160, respectively? No, thanks. Columbus Crew vs. New England Revolution both teams to score = YES is one of my favorite plays of the weekend, and I will be throwing it into some parlays, but at -185 I would not consider betting it as a single.

LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)

Nancy vs. Nice: Nice pk @ +110
Sunday, 11:00 a.m.

Value in Ligue 1? Is it possible? I like to think I have a high knowledge of this league, and even for me it is usually like pulling teeth trying to find good spots, but if oddsmakers are going to keep undervaluing Nice on the road then who are we to shy away? Last week was a great example of the pk bet being a great opportunity, as we bet Nice pk visiting Montpellier. Nice didn't have much firepower there, but no harm no foul and we can try again this week with an even more hapless opponent to pick on: Nancy. Yes, the same Nancy who average 0.33 goals per home game and have conceded in every home match. I like the chances of Nice continuing their undefeated streak with a win here as they would have to play poorly to even manage a draw.

Bordeaux vs. Caen: Under 2.5 @ -110
Saturday, 2:00 p.m.

I'm officially calling witchcraft on these Ligue 1 totals. This total would have been two goals a few weeks ago, but it seems like most cites are reverting back to 2.5 for a few matches other than PSG and Lyon now, so we need to grab these while they're hot. Caen have actually conceded in all of their games away from Stade Michel d'Ornano, but the good news is that they aren't scoring. Literally, they have yet to score as the visitor and while BTTS = NO is certainly an option here, I like the safety of playing the total given the great price on it. Price isn't all, as Bordeaux are coming off a pretty bad home loss to Angers when they didn't really do much of anything. It was a lackluster defensive effort which could certainly see Caen score here if repeated, but I cannot see either team scoring more than once given their states.

SERIE A (ITALY)

Parlay @ +161
Napoli vs. Chievo: Over 2.5
Genoa vs. Pescara: Genoa to win
Saturday, 2:45 p.m.

Seems to be a common theme around the world this week where there are going to be some really close and exciting games that are tough to call, but also a lot of games where we have slight favorites that are just juiced way above anything worth paying. That's definitely the case in Italy, but it's okay because parlays are here to help! We didn't have much luck with these types of bets last week (and I know there are strong advocates against them) but I think parlays are a great tool to have in your arsenal when used properly. What we want to do is string together high probability outcomes than add value to each other, and I'm going to recommend you parlay together my favorite total and favorite win prediction of the weekend. Chievo have only conceded twice in their two road games, but Napoli is threatening almost every time they take the field and will be looking to rebound after a scoreless draw against Genoa. Genoa played well and was unlucky to find the net in that match, but they should have much better luck getting a visit from a Pescara team who have lost both their road matches so far.

BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)

Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Ingolstadt: HT/FT = Borussia Monchengladbach/Borussia Monchengladbach @ +145
Saturday, 9:30 a.m.

I'm a glutton for pain placing a bet on a Monchengladbach game for the third week in a row and committing myself to spelling this out on a weekly basis, but if it makes me some money I will gladly type it over and over. Let me quickly explain this bet for those that are new, as I have not placed a HT/FT bet in this article previously: essentially, we are placing a bet that needs two outcomes to win. HT/FT stands for halftime/fulltime and we are picking on the three-way money line for each half, so 'outcome/outcome' means if we select the proper outcome at halftime AND full time, our bet will cash. In this case, we are betting that M'Gladbach will be winning at halftime and at fulltime. There is good value on the over in this matchup if you don't have this prop bet at your book, but the statistics love this bet. M'Gladbach have not trailed in 180 minutes of play at home this season, and they have been leading at halftime in both of their home wins over Werder Bremen and Leverkusen, both in the same level as Ingolstadt. M'Gladbach lead for approximately 59 minutes of every home game and I like them to get a good jump and pile it on here.

LA LIGA (SPAIN)

Definitely don't be shy about adding Barcelona or Villarreal to any parlays you've constructed this weekend, but I won't be placing single bets on them at their current odds. This is another week when I will be sitting out La Liga action as there is just nothing I am interested in committing money to. Should be some cracking matchups, but nothing for us here!

AROUND THE WORLD

Cordoba vs. Gimnastic de Tarragona: Cordoba @ -125 (Saturday 12:00 p.m.)
Bournemouth vs. Everton: Everton @ +110 (Saturday 10:00 p.m.)
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United: Newcastle @ +145 (Saturday 12:30 p.m.)

Bet Over 2.5 on:
Arminia Bielefeld vs. Nurnberg @ -115 (Sunday 07:30 p.m.)
Brondby vs. Odense @ -135 (Sunday 10:00 p.m.)
Lechia Gdansk vs. Ruch Chorzow @ -125 (Saturday 12:00 p.m.)

Bet Under 2.5 on:
Reading vs. Huddersfield: @ -145 (Saturday 10:00 p.m.)

Parlay (all bets under 2.5) @ +283 (Saturday 07:00 p.m.)
Ispwich vs. Leeds
Karlsruher vs. Erzgebirge Aue
Rostov vs. Lokomotiv Moscow