This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Southampton look to progress to the next round of the FA Cup when they host Burnley on Saturday, Feb. 8.
It's been an abysmal season for Southampton, sitting in last place in the Premier League table. They are most likely heading for relegation, and the FA Cup is their last hope of getting something out of the season. They beat Championship side Swansea City in the previous round and won at Ipswich Town last weekend, so they should have some confidence for this one.
Burnley have been on a good run in the Championship and their last loss came Nov. 13 against Millwall. They're second place in the second division and have been incredible defensively under Scott Parker. Burnley breezed by Reading in their last FA Cup match, but Southampton will be a much more difficult test.
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FA Cup Best Bets for Southampton vs. Burnley
Betting on Exact Score
If you haven't been paying attention to the Championship you probably don't know the crazy defensive run Burnley have been on.
They have only allowed nine goals in 31 league matches and haven't conceded a goal since Dec. 21 against Watford. They've been so good in their low defensive block that teams haven't been able to figure out how to break them down.
The few times Southampton have played against low defensive blocks, they haven't done much either, though Premier League clubs are a different level.
Unsurprisingly, 11 of Burnley's 31 Championship matches have ended scoreless this season. And since Southampton are more or less a Championship squad, I like the value on this match to end scoreless at +750.
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Betting on Corners
Southampton have been in a few situations recently where they've controlled the majority of possession and tilted the field on their opponent.
If that happens in this match and they spend more time in Burnley's final third, it's more likely that they'll rack up a high number of corners.
Away from home this season in the Championship, Burnley are allowing more corners than they are winning and will more than likely be sitting in their usual defensive block for this one.
I like the value on Southampton over 5.5 corners at -120.
Betting on Player Shots on Target
Even though Southampton have been struggling near the bottom of the table, a bright spot has been Mateus Fernandes. He's taken over the No. 10 role and is starting to flourish with a more prominent role on set pieces.
Fernandes has incredible on-ball skills and has become Southampton's main offensive threat.
Over his last five league matches, he's racked up eight shots and somehow leads Southampton with just 10 shots on target this season.
I like the value on him to have a shot on target in this match at +100.
Southampton vs. Burnley FA Cup Betting Picks
- Correct Score: 0-0 (+750)
- Southampton Over 5.5 corners (-120)
- Mateus Fernandes Over 0.5 shots on target (+100)
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