Sweeping the Floor: How Much Do Set Pieces Matter?

Daily fantasy soccer players on DraftKings are always concerned about set pieces. The RotoWire subscriber Discord soccer channel is filled with questions like "who takes sets for Spurs with Kieran Trippier and Christian Eriksen out?" or "will Jean Michael Seri still take corners with Ryan Sessegnon and Tom Cairney starting?" or my personal recent favorite "who takes set pieces for Saudi Arabia?" (Thanks to our World Cup stats you'd know that Salman Al Faraj took them in Russia, though I don't think he played during their friendly against South Korea last week.)

But despite the huge value put on set-piece knowledge, free kicks aren't everything. Or, put differently, there is more to cash-game lineup construction than who is on set pieces. I've been a proponent of focusing on players who don't take set pieces when building cash-game lineups, with this year's clearest example being Huddersfield's Philip Billing, who has scored the 11th-most floor points (total fantasy points minus goals, assists, cards and clean sheets) despite taking just five total free kicks (three shots, one corner and one free-kick cross). It's not that I don't value the predictability of getting crosses and the occasional shots from players who take free kicks, but I think there is too much of an emphasis on that role, especially since players can be replaced on those dead balls at any time, and it's tough to even predict how many set pieces a team will get each match.

Of course, players who have set-piece responsibilities can still contribute in other statistical categories, but I was curious to see which players mostly rely on set pieces for their fantasy production. To start, let's review the top set-piece takers this season in terms of which players are taking the most free kicks (defined as corners, free-kick crosses and free-kick shots) for their teams, as well as their percentages for each defining statistical category:

Consistent cash-game players on DraftKings likely won't see many surprises, as players like Jose Holebas, James Maddison and Robert Snodgrass have been regular roster considerations this season specifically because they take set pieces for their respective sides. But this examination isn't to see who is taking set pieces, it's to determine which players are the most reliant on those set pieces for fantasy value.

To do that, let's review that same list of set-piece takers but include their total floor points to see exactly how much of their production is because of set pieces:

This is where it starts to get interesting. Holebas' role as Watford's primary set-piece taker is why he is so popular in cash games, and while there's little reason to expect him to lose those opportunities when he starts, it's quite surprising to see how little he does in open play compared to other players in similar situations. He is the second-highest crosser in the Premier League this season, but only 27.40 percent of his crosses have come in open play. To put that in perspective, Holebas' 40 open-play crosses are two more than Hector Bellerin, five more than Aaron Wan-Bissaka and nine fewer than DeAndre Yedlin.

"But that's not the same because you can't just remove Holebas' set-piece crosses because he's always going to have set pieces!" This is true. However, we also have to recognize that corners and free kicks aren't the most predictable stats. Sure, we expect teams that are favored, particularly at home, to have more set-piece opportunities, but that doesn't necessarily mean there will be a plethora of dead balls. For example, Watford won just one corner in their 3-1 victory over Burnley on Aug. 19, a match that saw Holebas send in one cross in 90 minutes. And while that's surely cherry-picking one bad game, reviewing Watford's team page will show that the Hornets have won at least eight corners in just five of 21 Premier League matches while finishing with five or fewer 11 times. So while we have reliable data that shows Holebas is Watford's main set-piece taker, we have nothing reliable to show us that the free kicks themselves can easily be predicted.

"But set-piece takers have assist equity!" This is true as well. Do you know who else has assist equity? Literally any player on the pitch. Just review the assist leaders on our player stats pages and you'll see Holebas has as many assists this season (five) as Alexandre Lacazette, Sergio Aguero and Abdoulaye Doucoure, players you'll never see lining up for a free kick with the intent of finding a center-back's head for a goal.

The above tables focused on main set-piece takers while examining their floor points, but fantasy production can come from anywhere, so let's take a look at the top 60 floor-point scorers (the list includes everyone who has scored at least 100.00 floor points this season), breaking out their set pieces to see how much they rely on them:

The list unsurprisingly includes many set-piece takers because set pieces are obviously important, but players who don't rely on them as much may actually be safer because of the somewhat unpredictability of set-piece opportunities. This isn't at all to say that we shouldn't roster set-piece takers in cash games -- obviously that's not the case. But the next time you're trying to settle on whether to roster Joao Moutinho or Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, at least take the time to assess what would happen if the former only managed to get three corner opportunities, a total he's reached just once in his last five starts, while the latter's production isn't affected much at all by that consideration.