This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Chelsea are looking to rebound from their loss to Manchester City when they host West Ham.
The Blues have only won one of their last seven Premier League matches and have gone from title contenders to battling for a Champions League place. They destroyed West Ham 3-0 in the previous meeting so that should give them some confidence here to get back in the win column.
West Ham are looking much improved under Graham Potter after getting a deserved 1-1 result at Aston Villa over the weekend. The Hammers don't have much hope of getting back in the top half of the table, so the rest of this season is about establishing their tactical identity under Graham Potter.
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Premier League Best Bets for Chelsea vs. West Ham
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Cole Palmer is the one who usually gets the spotlight for Chelsea and rightfully so. Did you know he doesn't actually lead Chelsea in non-penalty expected goals?
That would be Nicolas Jackson who has a 0.61 npxG per 90 scoring rate. He gets a ton of great chances, but has struggled to finish them off.
He hasn't scored in his last seven appearances despite creating 2.9 expected goals, so he's overdue to score.
At +120, I like the value on him to find the back of the net.
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Betting on Player Shots
If I asked you who is leading the Premier League in shots per 90 minutes you would probably say Mohamed Salah or Erling Haaland, but you'd be wrong. The leader at 4.1 is Chelsea's Noni Madueke.
The reason for that is simple: Chelsea likes to overload the middle of the pitch once they reach the opponents final third. That means that Madueke is often left in 1v1 situations against the opposing full-back and he's elite at beating them off the dribble to create his own shot.
He'll more than likely be left alone against Emerson, which is a fantastic matchup, so I like the value on him to have over 3.5 shots +125.
Betting on Team Total Goals
While the Blues been great offensively this season, their defense has struggled. Over the course of their last eight Premier League matches they are allowing 1.76 expected goals per 90 minutes against some lesser opponents.
West Ham has switched to a 3-4-3 under Potter, which worked against Aston Villa's 4-4-2 out of possession structure. Chelsea plays a 4-2-4 out of possession, so look for West Ham to hit them in the wide areas and have a lot of success with crosses in this match.
Chelsea plays an aggressive high line, which also leaves them vulnerable to balls in behind and West Ham have the runners like Mohammed Kudus to punish them.
So, I like the value on West Ham Over 1.5 goals at +250.
Chelsea vs. West Ham Betting Picks
- Nicolas Jackson Anytime Goalscorer (+120)
- Noni Madueke Over 3.5 shots (+125)
- West Ham Over 1.5 goals (+250)
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